093
FXUS61 KAKQ 110533
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
133 AM EDT SAT OCT 11 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS NORTH OF THE AREA TODAY WITH DRY AND
SENSIBLE WEATHER. A COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST LATER TODAY INTO SATURDAY, TRACKING NORTH TOWARD THE AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HEAVY RAIN, WINDY CONDITIONS, AND
COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ARE LIKELY NEAR THE COAST. THE LOW
LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, FINALLY MOVING AWAY
BY TUESDAY. DRY AND COOLER WEATHER RETURNS AND PREVAILS FOR THE
MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 755 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- MAINLY DRY THROUGH TONIGHT UNDER OVERCAST SKIES WITH LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID 60S SE.
SFC HIGH PRESSURE WAS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF NEW ENGLAND THIS
EVENING. WELL TO THE S, LOW PRESSURE WAS STARTING TO SPIN UP
OFF THE COAST OF FL, RESULTING IN A SUBTLE COASTAL TROUGH ALONG
THE SE COAST. ALOFT, AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WAS LOCATED NEAR THE
GREAT LAKES WITH A TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST. MID AND HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS HAVE MOVED IN OVER THE FA AND WILL LINGER THROUGH
TONIGHT. ADDITIONALLY, A FEW LIGHT SPRINKLES/DRIZZLE WAS NOTED
ON RADAR ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC. THIS CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
CONTINUING THROUGH THE NIGHT. HOWEVER, THERE IS A LOW-END
POTENTIAL TO SEE A FEW ADDITIONAL SPRINKLES BY THE EARLY
MORNING (ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC) AS THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE
RAIN SHIELD FROM THE LOW INCHES CLOSER. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER, LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO BE MILD WITH TEMPS IN
THE UPPER 40S ACROSS THE FAR NW (GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER), MID 50 ACROSS THE I-95 CORRIDOR, AND
LOW-MID 60S ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT COASTAL LOW IMPACTS THE REGION
SATURDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, BRINGING RAIN, WIND, AND
COASTAL FLOODING HAZARDS. CONFIDENCE REMAINS ON THE LOWER SIDE
GIVEN DIVERGING MODEL SOLUTIONS, BUT AREAS NEAR THE COAST
CONTINUE TO HAVE THE HIGHEST CHANCES OF SEEING IMPACTS.
DEGRADED CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE FA
STARTS SEEING IMPACTS OF THE BREWING COASTAL STORM. THE TREND
FROM THE 12Z SUITE OF MODELS HAS BEEN FOR SLOWER PROGRESSION OF
THE LOW. HAVE BEEN LEANING ON THE GEFS AND THE EURO ENS SINCE
THERE IS MORE AGREEMENT BETWEEN THOSE TWO COMPARED TO THE
DETERMINISTIC MODELS. THIS WOULD PLACE THE SFC LOW OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST BY LATE SATURDAY NIGHT, THEN SLOWLY TRAVELING NE
FROM THERE INTO MONDAY. SAT MORNING WILL PROBABLY BE DRY FOR
MOST PEOPLE, BUT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE PRIMARILY E OF I-95 (~30% POP). PRECIP THEN INCREASES
IN THE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY IN THE SE WHERE
POPS JUMP UP TO 60%+. PRECIP THEN SPREADS ACROSS THE AREA LATER
SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING. THINKING THAT THIS COULD BE
THE TIME PERIOD WHEN THE BULK OF THE RAIN FALLS. HIGHEST POPS
ARE E OF I-95 (80%+), BUT THE ENTIRE AREA HAS LIKELY POPS. GOING
INTO SUNDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, THE FOCUS WILL SHIFT TO THE
NE. SHOULD SEE A SLOW TAPERING OF RAIN FROM SW TO NE MON AS SFC
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND AN UL RIDGE SLIDES
EAST; SHOWERS COULD LINGER FOR NE COUNTIES INTO MONDAY NIGHT.
DID HAVE TO INCREASE THE QPF A TOUCH TO ACCOMMODATE THE SLOWER
PROGRESSION OF THE LOW. LATEST THINKING PUTS A STRIP OF 2-3" RIGHT
ALONG THE COAST, 1.5-2" ELSEWHERE E OF I-95, THEN TAPERING DOWN TO
~0.7" BETWEEN I-95 AND THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE FA. THIS LINES UP
PRETTY WELL WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND EURO ENS. IT IS NOT OUTSIDE THE
REALM OF POSSIBILITY, THOUGH, FOR LOCALIZED AREAS OF 3-4" CLOSE TO
THE COAST. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR A FEW INSTANCES OF FLOODING
ALONG THE COAST (IN ADDITION TO TIDAL FLOODING, SEE SECTION
BELOW), WHICH IS HIGHLIGHTED BY THE DAYS 2 AND 3 ERO FROM THE WPC.
THE OTHER CONCERN FOR THIS PERIOD IS ELEVATED ONSHORE WINDS. NE
WINDS WILL STEADILY INCREASE SAT AND SUN, PEAKING SOMETIME SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE
COAST AND BAY SATURDAY EVENING THOUGH SATURDAY NIGHT (GUSTS TO 50MPH
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST) AND 20-30MPH FURTHER INLAND. WIND GUSTS
OF 50+MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE IMMEDIATE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE
COAST SUNDAY. REMAINING RATHER BREEZY ON MONDAY ONCE WINDS SWITCH
TO THE NW BUT LESS SO THAN SUNDAY.
FOR TEMPERATURES, HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S ARE EXPECTED
SATURDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S AREAWIDE SUNDAY.
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE AROUND 60 F SATURDAY NIGHT AND IN THE 50S
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 350 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SLOWLY DRYING OUT TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY BY THE MIDDLE AND
END OF NEXT WEEK.
COULD SEE SOME LINGERING SHOWERS ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE LOW NEAR THE
COAST ON TUESDAY, BUT OTHERWISE EXPECTING IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE
SFC LOW AND ASSOCIATED UL TROUGH WILL BE SLIDING OFFSHORE WHILE
ANOTHER AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AND AN UL
RIDGE SETS UP W OF THE FA. THIS PATTERN MORE OR LESS PERSISTS
INTO THE LATE WEEK PERIOD. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES TUES WILL YIELD
TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WED AND THURS. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER
60S TO LOW 70S TUES AND WED. COULD BE A BIT COOLER THURS, BUT
ONLY BY A FEW DEGREES. OVERNIGHT LOWS FOLLOW A COOLING TREND
THROUGH THIS PERIOD STARTING WITH 50S TUE NIGHT AND DROPPING TO
THE MID 40S BY THURS NIGHT. REMAINING FAIRLY BREEZY TUES WITH
NORTHERLY GUSTS TO AROUND 20MPH.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 745 PM EDT FRIDAY...
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER WITH A MIX OF VFR AND MVFR CIGS ARE NOTED
OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND/OR SHIFT WESTWARD TOWARD CENTRAL VA AND
THE PIEDMONT OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, WITH MVFR CIGS AT RIC BY
10Z OR SO. SOME MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS LOCALIZED IFR CIGS AS WELL,
BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO REFLECT IN THE TAFS AT THIS TIME.
FLIGHT CONDITIONS FURTHER DEGRADE TO WIDESPREAD MVFR LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN IFR TONIGHT AS A COASTAL LOW APPROACHES THE
REGION. RAIN WILL ALSO OVERSPREAD THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THIS
AFTERNOON AND THEN RIC AND SBY BY THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT,
REDUCING VISIBILITY. SPOTTY RAIN OR SHOWERS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
EARLIER THAN THE PREVAILING WX GROUPS IN THE TAFS, SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION OF THIS WITH PROB30 GROUPS. N-NE WINDS OF 5-10
KT THIS MORNING INCREASE TO ~10 KT INLAND AND 10-15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 KT NEAR THE COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS
INCREASE FURTHER AFTER 00Z, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR 30 KT GUSTS
AT COASTAL TERMINALS. RAIN CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR (MOSTLY IFR) CIGS, ELEVATED WINDS, AND
MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN ARE ALL LIKELY INTO SUNDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE PERSISTS JUST OFFSHORE. DEGRADED FLYING CONDITIONS
(WIDESPREAD IFR CIGS) LIKELY CONTINUE INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
RAIN CHANCES LINGERING THROUGH MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 355 PM EDT FRIDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY.
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. WHILE SOME
UNCERTAINTY REMAINS, DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST
FROM SATURDAY EVENING INTO MONDAY. GALE WATCHES REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE BAY, RIVERS, SOUND AND NC COASTAL WATERS. STORM
WATCHES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE VA-MD COASTAL WATERS.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS 1030+MB HIGH PRESSURE NEAR THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST, RIDGING BACK TO THE SW AND INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. LOW
PRESSURE IS STARTING TO DEVELOP NEAR FLORIDA. WINDS RANGE FROM 10-15
KTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHES BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TO 15-25 KT FROM
ROUGHLY CAPE CHARLES TO THE SOUTH. SEAS FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN
WITH 4-5 FT SEAS N AND 6-8 FT FROM VA BEACH SOUTHWARD. WAVES IN THE
BAY ARE 2-3 FT WITH 3-4 FT NEAR THE MOUTH.
THE MAIN FOCUS CONTINUES TO BE THE DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW OFF THE
COAST OF FL/GA TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY, WHICH WILL TRACK NORTHWARD
OVER OR CLOSE TO OUR WATERS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. THE EXACT EVOLUTION
OF THE LOW HAS FINALLY STARTED TO COME INTO FOCUS WITH THE 12Z
GUIDANCE. THE CONSENSUS NOW SHOWS LOW PRESSURE LIFTING UP THE
CAROLINA COAST EARLY SUNDAY AND BECOMING ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE
DURING THE DAY SUNDAY. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF
STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, RAMPING UP EARLY SATURDAY EVENING
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PEAK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT MARINE
HAZARDS, INCLUDING HIGH WINDS (POTENTIALLY TO STORM FORCE FOR VA-MD
OCEAN WATERS) AND DANGEROUS SEAS. PEAK WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM 45-50
KT ON THE VA-MD COASTAL WATERS (WHERE A STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT),
40-45 KT IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND NC COASTAL WATERS, AND 35-40 KT
IN THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS. WITH THE BROADER/ELONGATED COASTAL LOW,
THE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE PROLONGED INTO TUESDAY
AND POTENTIALLY EARLY WEDNESDAY BUT WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING
DURING THAT PERIOD. GALE AND STORM WATCH HEADLINES HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED INTO LATE MONDAY FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND THE VA/MD
COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT FINALLY STARTS TO RELAX BY MID WEEK
WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE
13-17 FT RANGE (SIG WAVE HEIGHT), WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 20-25
FT. SIG WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RANGE BETWEEN 5-8 FT, WITH 9-10
FT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS WINDS DECREASE NEXT WEEK, SO
WILL THE SEAS, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 415 PM EDT FRIDAY..
THE COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY WAS ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 4PM AFTER MOSTLY
NUISANCE TO LOCALLY MINOR TIDAL FLOODING ALONG THE SOUTHERN CHES BAY
AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF THE VA EASTERN SHORE AND THE VA/NC COASTAL
WATERS. THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS EVENING IS NOT EXPECTED TO BRING
MORE THAN NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING ACROSS THE REGION. ADDITIONAL
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN THE SAME AREAS FOR THE
SATURDAY MORNING HIGH TIDE AND WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR THE
AFTERNOON/EVENING CYCLE AS WELL. WATER LEVELS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK
ONLY INTO THE MINOR FLOOD RANGE ON SATURDAY.
LATER SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY, AS NE WINDS RAPIDLY INCREASE, LIKELY
TO GALE FORCE BY EARLY SUNDAY, A RAPID RISE IN ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED
(A SURGE INCREASE OF 1-2 FT IN ~12 HRS). THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
OCCURRING LATE SAT NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY IS THE LOWER ASTRO TIDE,
SO EVEN WITH A SHARP INCREASE, GENERALLY ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS
EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD. THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE, OCCURRING
AROUND NOON SUNDAY ALONG THE OCEAN, AND THROUGH THE AFTN ELSEWHERE
IS THE ANTICIPATED TIME FOR PEAK WATER LEVELS WITH THIS EVENT.
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED
DURING THIS PERIOD FROM THE NORTHERN NECK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST
SIDE OF THE BAY AND INTO THE RAPPAHANNOCK, YORK, AND JAMES RIVERS,
AS WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS ALONG THE OCEAN. A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE AREAS STARTING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING
INTO THE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING. THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR ACHIEVING
MAJOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WILL BE VA BEACH, AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY
AREAS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS UP THE JAMES RIVER. PRECISE WATER LEVELS
WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED
WIND DIRECTION, BUT THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE AT SEEING AT LEAST
MODERATE FLOODING. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO MONDAY AND
TUESDAY WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE, THOUGH
EXACT WATER LEVELS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND TO BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW
MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 4 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 PM EDT MONDAY
FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ082>086-089-090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING
FOR VAZ075>078-521-522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EDT
THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630-631.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ632-
634-652-654-656.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR ANZ633-
658.
GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ635>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650.
STORM WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...AC/RMM
SHORT TERM...AC
LONG TERM...AC
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...LKB/RHR
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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