684
FXUS61 KAKQ 120730
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 AM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA TODAY, WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA COAST. RAIN,
WINDY CONDITIONS, AND COASTAL FLOOD IMPACTS ARE ALL LIKELY
TODAY. THE LOW LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY, BEFORE PULLING AWAY TUESDAY
AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTHWEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS AND PREVAILS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING
RAIN, STRONG WINDS, AND MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING.
IMPACTS WILL BE GREATEST AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST LATER THIS
MORNING INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS.
~995 MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED ABOUT 100 MILES SSE OF CAPE FEAR,
NC AS OF 3:30 AM THIS MORNING. NORTH OF THE LOW, A RAIN SHIELD
(OF LIGHT TO MODERATE INTENSITY) EXTENDS NORTHWARD INTO MOST OF
NC AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST VA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS STILL
PERSIST ON THE MD EASTERN AND IN OUR NW PIEDMONT COUNTIES, BUT
THIS SHOULD CHANGE SOON. TEMPERATURES RANGE THROUGH THE LOWER-
MID 60S.
THE LOW WILL LIFT SLOWLY NORTHWARD TOWARD THE CAROLINA COAST
THROUGH THE REST OF THIS MORNING. MEANWHILE, A SECONDARY LOW IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA COAST ON THE
NORTHEASTERN FLANK OF THE WARM FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. THESE
TWO LOW CENTERS ARE EXPECTED TO INTERACT WITH EACH OTHER OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS OR SO, THOUGH THE PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THIS
STILL REMAIN QUITE UNCERTAIN. LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE FOR MOST OF OUR FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH
POPS 70-100%. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON, THE RAIN BECOMES LESS
FOCUSED AND MORE SHOWERY/DRIZZLY AS THE REMNANT LOW LINGERS TO
OUR S AND THE OFFSHORE WARM FRONT PUSHES N AND SECONDARY LOW
SPIN TO OUR NE. THUS, POPS BEGIN TO DROP OFF, BUT REMAIN 30-50%
AREAWIDE INTO TONIGHT. THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT DOWNWARD
TREND IN RAIN TOTALS WITH MOST AREAS SEEING LESS THAN AN INCH.
THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR 1-2" REMAINS OVER SE VA AND NE NC, BUT
EVEN THESE AMOUNTS ARE QUITE OPTIMISTIC BASED ON CURRENT RADAR
TRENDS AND THE LATEST CAMS. IN TERMS OF TEMPS, WENT A FEW
DEGREES BELOW NBM GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND PRECIP.
FORECAST HIGHS ARE IN THE MID 60S.
THE MAIN IMPACTS REMAIN THE COASTAL HAZARDS, IN THE FORM OF WIND AND
COASTAL FLOODING (SEE SECTION BELOW FOR MORE COASTAL FLOODING INFO).
E-NE WINDS WILL INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS
THE LOW INCHES N AND WILL BE GREATEST ALONG AND NORTH OF THE
LEADING EDGE OF THE COASTAL WARM FRONT. PEAK WINDS OCCUR FROM
AROUND SUNRISE INTO THE EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FOR NE NC AND SE VA,
WITH THE PEAK A BIT LATER (THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING) FOR
LOCATIONS ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND NORTHERN CHESAPEAKE BAY
AND THE VA/MD EASTERN SHORE. WIND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT FOR
MOST AREAS NEAR AND JUST INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE FOR GUSTS OF
40-50 MPH, WITH HIGH WIND WARNINGS FOR THOSE ZONES IMMEDIATELY
BORDERING THE OCEAN FOR GUSTS 50-55 MPH (LOCALLY 60 MPH). NOTE
THE HIGH WIND WARNING WAS EXPANDED TO COASTAL CURRITUCK COUNTY A
FEW HOURS AGO, WITH IT REMAINING IN EFFECT FOR VA BEACH,
NORTHAMPTON AND ACCOMACK COUNTIES ON THE VA EASTERN SHORE, AND
THE MD BEACHES. WIND GUSTS INLAND AVERAGE 25-35 MPH. BREEZY
CONDITIONS PERSIST INTO TONIGHT AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE N WITH
THE SECONDARY LOW MOVING FURTHER NE.
HEADING INTO MONDAY, THE EVOLUTION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED LOWS WILL
DICTATE THE PLACEMENT OF PRECIP. THE HIGHEST COVERAGE OF LINGERING
SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE IS FAVORED FROM THE NORTHERN NECK INTO THE VA AND
MD EASTERN SHORE. QPF MONDAY SHOULD BE QUITE LIGHT, GENERALLY A
QUARTER INCH OR LESS. SKIES AVERAGE OVERCAST OR MOSTLY CLOUDY CLOSER
TO THE COAST, WITH SOME POTENTIAL FOR BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS IN THE I-
95 CORRIDOR AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE PIEDMONT. HIGHS AGAIN REMAIN ON
THE COOLER SIDE AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S. IT WILL ALSO REMAIN ON THE
BREEZY SIDE WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH, HIGHEST AT THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS.
- SUNNY AND VERY PLEASANT WEDNESDAY.
THE STAGNANT UPPER LOW (AND REMNANT SFC LOWS) WILL BE KICKED WELL
OUT TO SEA TUESDAY BY AN APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH IN SE CANADA AND A
BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN GENERAL, GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED A BIT QUICKER WITH THIS EVOLUTION, WITH NONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC RUNS LINGERING THE LOW NEAR THE COAST TUESDAY (AS SOME
DID SHOW THIS YESTERDAY). N-NW FLOW THROUGH THE ENTIRE COLUMN WILL
FUNNEL DRIER AIR TOWARD THE REGION AND COMFORTABLE/SEASONABLE/DRY WX
IS EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, THERE WILL BE SOME
LINGERING CLOUDS NEAR THE COAST. HIGH TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM
THE UPPER 60S NEAR THE COAST TO AROUND 70 F IN THE I-95 CORRIDOR
TO THE LOWER 70S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. SHOULD THE LOW AND CLOUDS
CLEAR QUICKER, THESE TEMPS WOULD END UP BEING A BIT WARMER.
LOWS TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE LOW-MID 50S.
HIGH PRESSURE, CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES, BUILDS SE TOWARD THE
REGION WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE, EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF THE DRY
CONDITIONS. CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE FOR A VERY NICE DAY WITH HIGHS
TEMPS IN THE 70S UNDER A SUNNY SKY.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MUCH COOLER THURSDAY BEHIND A DRY COLD FRONT. OTHERWISE, DRY
AND SEASONABLE TO END THE WEEK.
- SOME FROST POTENTIAL EXISTS THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN HEADING INTO THE LATER HALF OF THE WEEK
FAVORS CONTINUED DRY WX WITH A TALL RIDGE AXIS EXTENDING THROUGH
THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND A TROUGH OFF THE NE CONUS COAST. AT
THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS TO OUR NW. NOTICEABLY
COOLER AIR IS EXPECTED BY THURSDAY AS A DRY COLD FRONT SLIDES
THROUGH AND A SHORTWAVE DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. HIGHS
THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. THERE IS INCREASING
POTENTIAL FOR LOWS IN THE 30S INLAND THURSDAY NIGHT, WITH 40S AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE ON ANY FROST
POSSIBILITIES, AS IT'S THAT TIME OF THE YEAR. A SLOW MODERATING
TREND IN THE TEMPERATURES BEGINS FRIDAY, WITH A MORE SIGNIFICANT
WARMUP POSSIBLE BY THE WEEKEND AS A RIDGE AXIS APPROACHES FROM
THE W.
AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC/SC COAST THIS
MORNING. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THIS
MORNING, WITH A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL ALSO EXTENDS THROUGH NE NC AND INTO CENTRAL
AND SE VA. EXPECT DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS (DUE TO BOTH LOW
CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM RAIN) TO PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING
AND MOST OF TODAY AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER N.
BY LATER TODAY, THE NATURE OF PRECIP SHOULD BECOME RATHER LIGHT,
WITH POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE CONTINUING INTO AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. WIDESPREAD IFR-LIFR CIGS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED AREAWIDE TONIGHT.
WINDS WILL INCREASE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS TODAY AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. AT ORF AND ECG, NE WINDS OF 25-30 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS MORNING INTO
THE FIRST PART OF THE AFTERNOON. PEAK GUSTS OF ~25 KT AND ~30 KT
ARE FORECAST AT RIC AND PHF, RESPECTIVELY. THE WINDS WILL
INCREASE A BIT LATER AT SBY, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 35 KT
THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE HEADING INTO THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS, ELEVATED WINDS, AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL
WATERS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- LOW PRESSURE INTENSIFIES SOUTH OF THE AREA TONIGHT. GALE AND STORM
WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY AND SUNDAY
NIGHT. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE LOW IS SLOW
TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION.
DEEPENING 999MB LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED E OF THE GA/SC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, 1026MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED S OF NOVA
SCOTIA, WITH ANOTHER ~1026MB HIGH CENTERED WELL TO THE NW S OF JAMES
BAY. THE WIND IS ENE AND RANGES FROM ~15 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN CHES
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS TO 15-25 KT FROM ROUGHLY CAPE CHARLES TO THE
SOUTH. SEAS FOLLOW A SIMILAR PATTERN WITH 5-6 FT SEAS N AND 6-8 FT
FROM VA BEACH SOUTHWARD. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 2-3 FT WITH 3-5 FT
NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE OVERALL EVOLUTION OF THE
COASTAL LOW OFF THE COAST OF GA/SC THIS AFTN, WHICH WILL TRACK
NORTHWARD OVER OR CLOSE TO OUR WATERS LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.
WHILE THE EXACT EVOLUTION IS STILL SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN, THERE IS
DECENT AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM LIFTS UP ALONG THE CAROLINA COAST
LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY AND BECOMES ELONGATED FROM SW TO NE DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A LENGTHY
PERIOD OF STRONG NE WINDS ACROSS THE AREA, RAMPING UP THIS EVENING
WITH WINDS EXPECTED TO PEAK ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY MORNING INTO
EARLY MONDAY. THERE REMAINS HIGH CONFIDENCE FOR SIGNIFICANT MARINE
HAZARDS, INCLUDING HIGH WINDS (POTENTIALLY TO STORM FORCE FOR VA-MD
OCEAN WATERS) AND DANGEROUS SEAS. PEAK WIND GUSTS RANGE FROM 45-50
KT ON THE VA-MD COASTAL WATERS AND MOUTH OF THE BAY (WHERE STORM
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT). TIMING FOR THE STORM WARNINGS IN THE OCEAN
REMAINS THE SAME. HOWEVER, THE MOUTH OF THE BAY WAS EXTENDED THROUGH
7 PM TO ACCOUNT FOR A SLIGHT UPTICK IN 48KT PROBS LATER SUNDAY AFTN.
PEAK WIND GUSTS ARE 40-45 KT IN THE REST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
NC COASTAL WATERS, AND 35-40 KT IN THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS WHERE GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT.
WITH THE BROADER/ELONGATED COASTAL LOW, THE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BE PROLONGED INTO TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY EARLY
WEDNESDAY BUT WITH WINDS SLOWLY DECREASING TO HIGH-END SCA LEVELS
DURING THAT PERIOD. THE GRADIENT FINALLY STARTS TO RELAX BY MID WEEK
WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE
15-20 FT RANGE (SIG WAVE HEIGHT), WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25+
FT. SIG WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RANGE BETWEEN 5-8 FT, WITH 9-10
FT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS WINDS DECREASE NEXT WEEK, SO
WILL THE SEAS, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 345 PM EDT SATURDAY..
LATER TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY, AS NE WINDS
RAPIDLY INCREASE, LIKELY TO GALE TO LOCAL STORM FORCE BY EARLY
SUNDAY, A RAPID RISE IN ANOMALIES IS EXPECTED (A SURGE INCREASE OF
~2-2.5 FT IN ~12 HRS). THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE OCCURRING LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUNDAY IS THE LOWER ASTRO TIDE, SO EVEN WITH A SHARP
INCREASE, GENERALLY ONLY MINOR FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THIS
PERIOD. THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE, OCCURRING AROUND NOON SUNDAY ALONG
THE OCEAN, AND THROUGH THE AFTN ELSEWHERE IS THE ANTICIPATED TIME
FOR PEAK WATER LEVELS WITH THIS EVENT. WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD FROM THE NORTHERN
NECK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAY AND INTO THE
RAPPAHANNOCK, YORK, AND JAMES RIVERS, AS WELL AS MOST LOCATIONS
ALONG THE OCEAN. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THESE
AREAS. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE
TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG THE BAY SO SOME OF THE WARNINGS ACTUALLY GO
INTO EFFECT TONIGHT (WITH THE CFW PRODUCT INDICATING THE WORST
FLOODING TO OCCUR WITH THE FOLLOWING CYCLE ON SUNDAY). THE HIGHEST
PROBS FOR ACHIEVING MAJOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WILL BE THE OCEAN FROM NC
OBX TO VA BEACH, AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AREAS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS
UP THE JAMES RIVER AND THE YORK RIVER THROUGH YORKTOWN.
PRECISE WATER LEVELS WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE TRACK OF THE
LOW AND THE ASSOCIATED WIND DIRECTION, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
THIS FORECAST CYCLE GIVEN BETTER MODEL AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG NE
WIND IS LIKELY TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE SUNDAY TIDE CYCLE. THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS FOR MANY AREAS IN THE LOWER BAY/JAMES RIVER TO SEE
FLOODING THAT HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED IN AT LEAST A FEW YEARS IF NOT
LONGER, WITH TOP 10 LEVELS LIKELY. ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY
INTO AT LEAST MONDAY (POSSIBLY TUESDAY), WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION
OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE, THOUGH EXACT WATER LEVELS BECOME MORE
UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND TO
BECOME NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE BAY-SIDE OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE (PRIMARILY FROM BISHOPS HEAD TO CRISFIELD) THROUGH 7
PM WHERE A ~1FT ANOMALY COULD PUSH WATER LEVELS TO AROUND MINOR
FLOOD THRESHOLDS LATE THIS AFTN. THE FOLLOWING HIGH TIDE WILL BE THE
LOWER ASTRONOMICAL WITH NO TIDAL FLOODING EXPECTED FOR THESE
LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. ADDITIONAL FLOODING AT
THESE SITES IS POSSIBLE LATER IN THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ025.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ015>017.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 5 PM EDT THIS
AFTERNOON FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 AM EDT
MONDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 2 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095-097-525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ075>078-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ082-089-090-
093-095>098-523>525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ083>086-518-
520.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ084-086-523.
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ654-656.
STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ658.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...HET/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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