197
FXUS61 KAKQ 121920
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
320 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW
LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY, BEFORE PULLING AWAY TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTHWEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS AND PREVAILS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING
RAIN, WIND, AND MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING.
- WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996MB COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST OFF THE COAST OF SE NC. WHILE TO THE NORTH A STRONG 1034MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA. OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THE STORM HAS SLOWLY NUDGED NORTH WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYING CONSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY
UNDER PERFORMED ACROSS THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREAS. THEREFORE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ABLE TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER, IT THEY BEEN
REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES AS WINDS ARE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 35
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HAVE CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO STAY COOL ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 3PM
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COASTLINE.
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE ALONG A STATIONARY
WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND REAL TIME ANALYSIS IT IS LOOKING
LIKE THE LOW WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO OCCLUDE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. ONCE THIS LOW OCCLUDES IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY CAUSING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND ALLOWING WINDS TO LIGHTEN. AS OF THIS
UPDATE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR VB/NC ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATER
THIS EVENING. WHILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULAS AND EASTERN
SHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ENDING ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, NOT MUCH
QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. AROUND.1- .2" OF QPF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS VA/NC. WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE QPF TOTALS
WILL BE NEAR .25" WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE MONDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MONDAY CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN NE AND NY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL LOW AT THE SURFACE TO LINGER OFF THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW POPS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE AND FAR SE VA ALONG THE COAST.
POPS REMAIN BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
THAT AREA WITH THEM INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 % LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND THE NEW LOW FINALLY DEVELOPS. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL SATURATION PROFILES BASED OFF OF MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TO HELP MOVE THE COASTAL LOW OUT OF THE AREA.
A THE COASTAL LOW EXITS THE AREA CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO THE
WEST AS DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO THE WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SPLIT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WHILE TO THE EAST TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
- POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR PATCHY FROST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS VERY OPTIMAL
FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A TALL RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE NE COAST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE N AND NW OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS VA/NC AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THEN BY THURSDAY THE DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA HELPING TO BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW 40S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
UPPER 30S THE FAR NW AND ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND THE FAR NW.
THE 12 GEFS HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES TO 80-90% OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. WITH THE MODELS
CONTINUING TO TREND COOLER AND WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WIND INLAND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST INCREASES ACROSS THESE AREAS. BY FRIDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 103 PM EDT SUNDAY...
LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED JUST OFFSHORE OF THE NC/SC COAST THIS
AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER CONTINUES OVER THE AREA, WITH
A MIX OF MVFR AND IFR CIGS. THE IFR CIGS ARE MAINLY W OF THE
COASTAL TERMINALS AND CLOSER TO RIC. WIDESPREAD LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAINFALL CONTINUES TO EXTEND FROM NE NC AND INTO
CENTRAL AND SE VA. EXPECT DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS (DUE TO
BOTH LOW CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY FROM RAIN) TO PERSIST THROUGH THE
THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON AND LATE EVENING AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES FURTHER N. BY LATE THIS EVENING AND EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, THE NATURE OF PRECIP SHOULD BECOME RATHER LIGHT, WITH
POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR DRIZZLE. WIDESPREAD IFR- LIFR CIGS
ARE ALSO EXPECTED AREAWIDE TONIGHT.
WINDS HAVE INCREASED THROUGHOUT TODAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS. AT ORF AND ECG, NE WINDS GUSTS UP TO 40-45 KT HAVE
BEEN NOTED. PEAK GUSTS OF ~25 KT AND ~30 KT ARE FORECAST AT RIC
AND PHF, RESPECTIVELY. THE WINDS WILL INCREASE A BIT LATER AT
SBY, WITH GUSTS PEAKING AROUND 35 KT MID AFTERNOON. WINDS
SHOULD SLOWLY DECREASE HEADING INTO THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS, ELEVATED WINDS, AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 1130 AM EDT SUNDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- INTENSE LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST SLOWLY LIFTS NORTH
TODAY, BRINGING STRONG GALE CONDITIONS FOR MOST, WITH STORM
WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES.
- WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW IS
SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
STORM WARNINGS FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS S OF
CAPE CHARLES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS. 997MB LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST HAS BECOME OCCLUDED AND IS
NEARLY STATIONARY. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO THE NE OF THIS
LOW WITH SOME PRESSURE FALLS MODELED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY, BUT
WELL E OF THE DELMARVA COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS
STRONG AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A GALE FORCE ENE WIND FOR MUCH
OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF STRONG PRESSURE FALLS
LOCALLY STORM FORCE WIND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED S OF CAPE CHARLES
HENCE THE HEADLINE CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STRONG LOW PRESSURE (~995 MB) IS LOCATED OFF THE COAST OF
SOUTHEAST NC, WITH ~1028MB HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NE OF THE
LOCAL AREA. N/NE WINDS ARE GUSTING UP TO 50 KT IN THE VICINITY
OF THE MAIN SFC LOW ACROSS FROM HATTERAS SOUTHWARD AND OVER THE
PAMLICO SOUND. LOCALLY, WINDS ARE RAMPING UP NOW, WITH GUSTS TO
35-40 KT BEING OBSERVED INTO OUR NE NC WATERS, WITH WINDS
GENERALLY IN THE 20-25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 KT
ELSEWHERE. SEAS ARE NOW UP TO 10-14 FT OVER THE NE NC OCEAN
ZONE, AND 7-11 FT ELSEWHERE. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 3-4 FT N, AND
4-6 FT S.
NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST, BUT DID ADD THE
NC OCEAN ZONES TO A STORM WARNING THROUGH THIS AFTN FOR GUSTS TO
~50 KT. THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THIS CORE OF THE MAIN SFC
FEATURE LINGERS DOWN ALONG THE COAST OF SE NC/NORTHERN SC TODAY
AND INTO TONIGHT (NOT MOVING THAT FAR NORTH GIVEN THE PLACEMENT
UNDERNEATH AN UPPER LOW). HOWEVER, DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT OFF THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST SHOULD ALLOW THE ENTIRE SYSTEM TO ELONGATE,
WITH A BIT OF A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING WELL TO THE NNE, ALONG
OR JUST OFF THE DELMARVA COAST BY THIS EVENING.
THIS SCENARIO RESULTS IN A LENGTHY PERIOD OF STRONG NE WINDS
ACROSS THE AREA, LIKELY PEAKING THIS MORNING/EARLY AFTN ACROSS
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM VA BEACH SOUTHWARD, THEN RAMPING UP BY
LATE AFTN INTO THIS EVENING FARTHER NORTH AS THE SECONDARY SFC
LOW DEEPENS. PEAK WIND GUSTS WILL BE UP TO 50 KT ON THE OCEAN
AND MOUTH OF THE BAY (WHERE STORM WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT). PEAK
WIND GUSTS ARE 40-45 KT IN THE REST OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND
LOWER JAMES AND 35-40 KT IN THE UPPER TIDAL RIVERS WHERE GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT. ONE POTENTIAL DEVELOPMENT IS THAT SOME
OF THE GUIDANCE SHOWS ANOTHER UPTICK IN WINDS THIS EVENING
(ACROSS THE BAY) AS THEY SHIFT FROM NE TO MORE OF A DUE
NORTHERLY DIRECTION IN RESPONSE TO THE SECONDARY LOW OFF THE
DELMARVA COAST (THIS IS STILL EXPECTED TO PEAK IN THE ~45KT
RANGE FOR GUSTS SO THE GALE WARNINGS REMAIN AS IS).
WITH THE BROADER/ELONGATED COASTAL LOW, THE PROGRESSION THROUGH THE
REGION WILL BE PROLONGED INTO TUESDAY AND POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY
AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE
NW. N WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN HIGH- END SCA LEVELS DURING THAT
PERIOD. THE GRADIENT FINALLY STARTS TO RELAX THURSDAY WITH
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE
15-20 FT RANGE (SIG WAVE HEIGHT), WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO
25+ FT. SIG WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE BAY RANGE BETWEEN 5-8 FT,
WITH 9-10 FT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. AS WINDS DECREASE
NEXT WEEK, SO WILL THE SEAS, BUT ONLY GRADUALLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 430 AM EDT SUNDAY..
LATEST TIDAL ANOMALIES ARE ~ 2FT IN THE LOWER BAY/MOUTH OF THE
BAY AND ZONES ALONG THE OCEAN IN SE VA/NE NC, TAPERED TO ~1 FOOT
FARTHER NORTH. AS NE WINDS CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THIS
MORNING, EXPECT THE RISE IN ANOMALIES TO CONTINUE, WITH LITTLE
CHANGE TO THE EXPECTED WATER LEVELS BY THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE THIS
AFTN (PERHAPS COMING IN A FEW TENTHS LOWER IN SOME SPOTS). THE
HIGH TIDE, OCCURRING EARLY THIS AFTN ALONG THE OCEAN, AND
THROUGH THE LATER AFTN ELSEWHERE IS THE ANTICIPATED TIME FOR
PEAK WATER LEVELS WITH THIS EVENT, THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING
AT OCEAN CITY WHERE THE FOLLOWING TIDE LATE TONIGHT COULD BE
SLIGHTLY HIGHER. EITHER WAY, WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR
COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED DURING THIS PERIOD FROM THE
NORTHERN NECK SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST SIDE OF THE BAY AND INTO
THE RAPPAHANNOCK, YORK, AND JAMES RIVERS, AS WELL AS MOST
LOCATIONS ALONG THE OCEAN. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS. SOME MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
HIGH TIDE CYCLE TONIGHT FOR AREAS ALONG THE MD SHORE OF THE
UPPER BAY SO MAY ISSUE AN ADVISORY FOR THAT (THOUGH THIS COULD
UNDERPERFORM AS STRONG NE WINDS ENSUE). THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR
ACHIEVING MAJOR FLOOD THRESHOLDS WILL BE THE OCEAN FROM NC OBX
TO VA BEACH, AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY AREAS, AS WELL AS PORTIONS
UP THE JAMES RIVER AND THE YORK RIVER THROUGH YORKTOWN. THE
CURRENT CFW COVERS THE NEXT 2 HIGH TIDE CYCLES (THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING), BUT SOME AREAS MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING. DID NOT DO THIS JUST YET GIVEN UNCERTAINTY IN THE
PRECISE EVOLUTION OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM, AND POTENTIAL FOR SOME
OFFSHORE COMPONENT OF THE IND DIRECTION ON MONDAY (TO NNW),
WHICH COULD LOWER WATER LEVELS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST IS FOR MANY AREAS IN THE LOWER BAY/JAMES
RIVER TO SEE FLOODING THAT HAS NOT BEEN OBSERVED IN AT LEAST A
FEW YEARS IF NOT LONGER, WITH TOP 10 LEVELS LIKELY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ024.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ025.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ015>017-102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095-097-098-
525.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ082>086-089-
090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ084-086-523.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ634-638-650-652-654-
656.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...HET/SW
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/SW
LONG TERM...HET/SW
AVIATION...HET/SW
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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