868
FXUS61 KAKQ 130016
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
816 PM EDT SUN OCT 12 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COASTAL LOW TRACKS NORTH TOWARD THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING, WITH A SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING OFFSHORE OF THE
DELMARVA COAST LATE TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THE LOW
LINGERS JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY, BEFORE PULLING AWAY TUESDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTHWEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE
WEATHER RETURNS AND PREVAILS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT
WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT, BRINGING
RAIN, WIND, AND MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING.
- WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY IMPROVE LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY
MONDAY.
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A 996MB COASTAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
JUST OFF THE COAST OF SE NC. WHILE TO THE NORTH A STRONG 1034MB HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER NORTHEASTERN CANADA. OVER THE COURSE OF
THE DAY THE STORM HAS SLOWLY NUDGED NORTH WITH THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT STAYING CONSISTENT ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS HAVE SLIGHTLY
UNDER PERFORMED ACROSS THE HIGH WIND WARNING AREAS. THEREFORE THE
HIGH WIND WARNING HAS BEEN ABLE TO BE CANCELED. HOWEVER, IT THEY BEEN
REPLACED BY WIND ADVISORIES AS WINDS ARE SUSTAINED BETWEEN 20 TO 35
MPH WITH SOME GUSTS NEARING 50 MPH. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS AND CLOUDS
HAVE CONTINUED TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. THESE CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
HAVE CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO STAY COOL ACROSS THE AREA. AS OF 3PM
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S INLAND AND UPPER 60S ALONG
THE COASTLINE.
THROUGHOUT TONIGHT THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE ALONG A STATIONARY
WARM FRONT LOCATED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE
RECENT TRENDS IN THE MODELS AND REAL TIME ANALYSIS IT IS LOOKING
LIKE THE LOW WILL TAKE A LITTLE LONGER TO OCCLUDE THAN PREVIOUSLY
THOUGHT. ONCE THIS LOW OCCLUDES IT WILL WEAKEN SLIGHTLY CAUSING THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO WEAKEN AND ALLOWING WINDS TO LIGHTEN. AS OF THIS
UPDATE THE WIND ADVISORIES FOR VB/NC ARE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE LATER
THIS EVENING. WHILE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE PENINSULAS AND EASTERN
SHORE WINDS WILL DECREASE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LIGHT RAIN
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT WITH SHOWERS POSSIBLE
ENDING ACROSS THE WEST BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, NOT MUCH
QPF IS EXPECTED WITH THESE LIGHT SHOWERS. AROUND.1- .2" OF QPF IS
EXPECTED ACROSS VA/NC. WHILE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE QPF TOTALS
WILL BE NEAR .25" WITH SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.
TEMPERATURES WILL NOT DROP MUCH TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS
CONTINUE WITH LOWS IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 50S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE MONDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MONDAY CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN NE AND NY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL LOW AT THE SURFACE TO LINGER OFF THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW POPS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE AND FAR SE VA ALONG THE COAST.
POPS REMAIN BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
THAT AREA WITH THEM INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 % LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND THE NEW LOW FINALLY DEVELOPS. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL SATURATION PROFILES BASED OFF OF MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TO HELP MOVE THE COASTAL LOW OUT OF THE AREA.
A THE COASTAL LOW EXITS THE AREA CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO THE
WEST AS DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO THE WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SPLIT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WHILE TO THE EAST TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
- POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR PATCHY FROST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS VERY OPTIMAL
FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A TALL RIDGE
WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION WITH A
TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE NE COAST. THIS PATTERN FAVORS SFC HIGH
PRESSURE N AND NW OF THE AREA WITH MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW 70S ACROSS VA/NC AND UPPER 60S
ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THEN BY THURSDAY THE DRY COLD FRONT
WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA HELPING TO BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR.
HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT
TEMPERATURES WILL PLUMMET INTO THE LOW 40S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
UPPER 30S THE FAR NW AND ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND THE FAR NW.
THE 12 GEFS HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES TO 80-90% OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. WITH THE MODELS
CONTINUING TO TREND COOLER AND WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM WIND INLAND
THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST INCREASES ACROSS THESE AREAS. BY FRIDAY HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND
COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 732 PM EDT SUNDAY...
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING, WITH LOWERED VIS
DUE TO LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN AT ALL TERMINALS ASIDE FROM RIC. CIGS
HAVE BEEN HOVERING BETWEEN LOW-END MVFR AND IFR AT ALL SITES OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS. ALL SITES WILL LIKELY DROP TO IFR TONIGHT, WITH
SOME SITES POTENTIALLY SEEING PERIODS OF LIFR CIGS. RAIN WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TOMORROW MORNING, THOUGH SBY WILL SEE
LIGHT RAIN THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY AS
TO IF THE IFR CIGS LIFT ANY DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, SO HAVE NOT
INCLUDED IMPROVING CONDITIONS (ASIDE FROM IMPROVING VIS AS THE
RAIN LETS UP) DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY
DECREASE TONIGHT, WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KTS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT
FEW HOURS, FOLLOWED BY GUSTS OF BETWEEN 20-25 KTS (~25 KTS AT
THE COASTAL TERMINALS) TOMORROW. THE WIND DIRECTION WILL BACK
FROM THE NE TO N TONIGHT, WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NW AT ECG
TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: MVFR/IFR CIGS, ELEVATED WINDS, AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL
CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE THROUGH INTO MONDAY NIGHT AS LOW
PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY
TUESDAY AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 810 PM EDT SUNDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- ALL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS.
REGARDLESS DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
- WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW IS
SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
CONVERTED THE GALE WARNINGS TO SCAS FOR THE UPPER RIVERS (THAT
RUN UNTIL 22Z/6 PM MONDAY FOR NOW). WILL KEEP ALL OTHER GALE
HEADLINES AS IS, SINCE WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED A BIT
WHILE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE BAY/LOWER JAMES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EDT...
998 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST HAS BECOME
OCCLUDED AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO
THE NE OF THIS LOW WITH SOME PRESSURE FALLS MODELED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, BUT WELL E OF THE DELMARVA COAST, AND ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A GALE FORCE ENE WIND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS LOCALLY STORM FORCE WIND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND ALL
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS. THE LOW
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NNE TONIGHT WITH SOME REORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. GIVEN THIS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SSE TO NNW,
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND LINGERING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHES. BAY
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, GALE WARNINGS END LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND NRN NC COASTAL WATERS,
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS, MOUTH OF THE
BAY, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND MONDAY MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CHES. BAY. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 12-15FT AND OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 20FT AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES IN
THE CHES. BAY ARE MAINLY 4- 6FT, WITH 6-10FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.
WITH A BROADER/ELONGATED COASTAL LOW BY MONDAY, THE PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE PROLONGED INTO TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. N WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN HIGH- END SCA
LEVELS DURING THAT PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY (DEPENDENT
ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST). THE GRADIENT FINALLY
STARTS TO RELAX THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 15-20 FT RANGE (SIG WAVE HEIGHT),
WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25+ FT. SIG WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY RANGE BETWEEN 5-8 FT, WITH 9-10 FT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY. AS WINDS DECREASE NEXT WEEK, SO WILL THE SEAS, BUT ONLY
GRADUALLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY..
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH SOME SPOTS (E.G.
JAMESTOWN/LYNNHAVEN) SEEING PEAK WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.5-0.75
FT ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. CRESTS AT SEWELL'S POINT, YORKTOWN,
AND LYNNHAVEN WERE ABOUT 0.10 FT BELOW THE LEVELS OBSERVED ON 1/3/2022.
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN TO 2.5-3.5 FT ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT N-NE
WIND AND BUILDING SEAS. WITH THE VERY HIGH TIDAL ANOMALIES,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, EVEN THOUGH IT IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE JAMES RIVER AND S/SE SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT (BUT
WILL DROP THE WARNING FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE).
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO AT LEAST MONDAY (POSSIBLY
TUESDAY), WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE,
THOUGH EXACT WATER LEVELS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
MDZ021>023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR NCZ102.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ075>078-
521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ082>086-089-
090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR VAZ084-086-523.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ095-097-098-
525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ634-638-650-652-654-
656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT MONDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...HET/SW
NEAR TERM...HET
SHORT TERM...HET/SW
LONG TERM...HET/SW
AVIATION...HET/NB
MARINE...AJZ/ERI/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
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