117
FXUS61 KAKQ 130530
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
130 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
A DEVELOPING SECONDARY LOW OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA WILL LINGER
JUST OFFSHORE MONDAY, BEFORE PULLING AWAY TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS TO OUR NORTHWEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER
RETURNS AND PREVAILS FOR THE MIDDLE AND END OF NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 940 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- THE COASTAL STORM IMPACTS THE REGION THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING,
BRINGING LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN, WIND, AND MODERATE TO MAJOR
TIDAL FLOODING.
EXTENDED THE WIND ADVISORIES THROUGH 06Z/2 AM FROM MATHEWS
COUNTY SOUTH THROUGH CHESAPEAKE/VA BEACH. WE ARE SEEING AN
INCREASE IN N-NNE WINDS DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON
THE BACK SIDE OF LOW PRESSURE JUST OFF THE COAST COMBINED WITH A
PUSH OF CAA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.
THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
SURFACE ANALYSIS THIS EVENING IS SHOWING THE INITIAL COASTAL
LOW SITTING JUST OFF THE CAROLINA COASTLINE. THIS LOW HAS
OCCLUDED AND A SECONDARY WEAK LOW IS DEVELOPING ALONG A
STATIONARY WARM FRONT DRAPED OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA.
TO OUR NORTHEAST, A STRONG HIGH IS CENTERED ACROSS NE CANADA. ALOFT,
THERE ARE TWO UPPER LOWS ACROSS THE EAST COAST; ONE STACKED
WITH THE INITIAL LOW NEAR THE CAROLINAS AND THE OTHER ACROSS THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES REGION. THE SURFACE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE
AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE AND THE HIGH REMAINS TIGHTENED, AND LAND-
BASED SURFACE OBS REFLECT THIS BY MEASURING WINDS OF 20-25 MPH
INLAND AND 35-45 MPH CLOSER TO AND ALONG THE COAST. THE LOCAL
RADAR IS STILL DETECTING SWATHS OF LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY
MODERATE RAIN THIS EVENING, THOUGH THESE BANDS ARE NOT PRODUCING
TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES ARE IN
THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S.
THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE NE WILL ALLOW FOR A STAGNANT PATTERN
TONIGHT, CAUSING THE DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE TO LINGER AND THE
BREEZY AND SOGGY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND INTO
TOMORROW. THE LOW OFFSHORE OF THE MID-ATLANTIC IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO OCCLUDE, WHICH WILL START TO WEAKEN IT IN THE PROCESS. THIS
WILL RESULT IN A SLIGHT RELAXING OF THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL LIKELY COME DOWN SOME TONIGHT, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ELEVATED. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE
ACROSS THE AREA, THOUGH THE PIEDMONT REGION MAY SEE SHOWERS
COMING TO AN END BY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL
WILL BE LIMITED TO .1- .2" DUE TO THE LIGHTER NATURE OF THESE
SHOWERS. SKIES WILL REMAIN OVERCAST FOR THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT. THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE WILL NOT BE MUCH
WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID TO UPPER 50S. COASTAL
FLOODING WILL REMAIN THE BIGGEST ISSUE TONIGHT IN TERMS OF
HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE COASTAL STORM (SEE TIDES/COASTAL
FLOODING SECTION FOR MORE INFORMATION).
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-CHANCES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE MONDAY.
- DRIER CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY AS THE LOW FINALLY EXITS.
THE UPPER LEVEL PATTERN FOR MONDAY CONSISTS OF AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW OVER SOUTHERN NE AND NY WITH A TROUGH OVER THE SE. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR THE COASTAL LOW AT THE SURFACE TO LINGER OFF THE
COAST. THIS WILL ALLOW POPS TO REMAIN IN THE FORECAST PRIMARILY
ACROSS THE MD/VA EASTERN SHORE AND FAR SE VA ALONG THE COAST.
POPS REMAIN BETWEEN 30 TO 40 PERCENT THROUGH THE DAY ACROSS THE
THAT AREA WITH THEM INCREASING TO 50 TO 60 % LATER IN THE DAY
MONDAY AS THE LOW OCCLUDES AND THE NEW LOW FINALLY DEVELOPS. FOR
THE REST OF THE AREA DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL UNDER CLOUDY
SKIES. PERHAPS SOME LIGHT DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE WITH THE LOW-
LEVEL SATURATION PROFILES BASED OFF OF MODEL SOUNDINGS. HIGH
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER
TO MIDDLE 60S. BY EARLY TUESDAY THE A UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL
MOVE INTO THE AREA TO HELP MOVE THE COASTAL LOW OUT OF THE AREA.
A THE COASTAL LOW EXITS THE AREA CLEARING WILL BEGIN TO THE
WEST AS DRIER AIR ENTERS THE REGION. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY
CLOUDY TO THE WEST AND MOSTLY CLOUDY TO THE EAST. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A SPLIT IN HIGH TEMPERATURES. ALONG AND WEST OF I-95
HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOWER 70S WHILE TO THE EAST TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 320 PM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER RETURNS TO THE AREA BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK.
- POTENTIAL INCREASES FOR PATCHY FROST THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN GOING INTO NEXT WEEK IS VERY
OPTIMAL FOR DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER TO RETURN TO THE AREA. A
TALL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES
REGION WITH A TROUGH LOCATED JUST OFF THE NE COAST. THIS
PATTERN FAVORS SFC HIGH PRESSURE N AND NW OF THE AREA WITH
MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT WARMER ON
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF A DRY COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW
70S ACROSS VA/NC AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THEN
BY THURSDAY THE DRY COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE AREA
HELPING TO BRING IN MUCH COOLER AIR. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE IN
THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL
PLUMMET INTO THE LOW 40S WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF UPPER 30S THE
FAR NW AND ACROSS THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND THE FAR NW. THE 12
GEFS HAS INCREASED PROBABILITIES TO 80-90% OF TEMPERATURES
FALLING BELOW 40 DEGREES ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREAS. WITH THE
MODELS CONTINUING TO TREND COOLER AND WITH VERY LIGHT TO CALM
WIND INLAND THE POTENTIAL FOR FROST INCREASES ACROSS THESE
AREAS. BY FRIDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE AREA
KEEPING THE AREA DRY AND COOL WITH HIGHS AROUND THE MIDDLE 60S.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING
AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SPIN OFFSHORE, ONE TO OUR S AND
ONE TO OUR E. CIGS ARE IFR NEAR THE COAST AND AT SBY, WITH LOW-
END MVFR (1000-1500 FT) FURTHER INLAND. CIGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
SOME THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT DON'T EXPECT ANY DRASTIC
CHANGES TO THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT SBY. A BIT OF AN
UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTING CIGS STAY MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY,
THOUGH SBY SHOULD REMAIN IFR. WILL NOW REFLECT THIS IN THE 06Z
TAFS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO IFR OR
LIFR EVERYWHERE TONIGHT, WITH -RADZ AND LOWER VSBY ALSO
DEVELOPING AFTER ~02Z TUESDAY.
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT, EXCEPT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT ORF. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WINDS WILL BE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT, WHILE ALSO TAKING ON A NNW
DIRECTION. WINDS RELAX TO ~10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH CIGS AND VSBY
(FROM -RADZ AND BR) PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY DAYTIME TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 810 PM EDT SUNDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- ALL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS.
REGARDLESS DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
- WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW IS
SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
CONVERTED THE GALE WARNINGS TO SCAS FOR THE UPPER RIVERS (THAT
RUN UNTIL 22Z/6 PM MONDAY FOR NOW). WILL KEEP ALL OTHER GALE
HEADLINES AS IS, SINCE WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED A BIT
WHILE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE BAY/LOWER JAMES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EDT...
998 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST HAS BECOME
OCCLUDED AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO
THE NE OF THIS LOW WITH SOME PRESSURE FALLS MODELED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, BUT WELL E OF THE DELMARVA COAST, AND ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A GALE FORCE ENE WIND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS LOCALLY STORM FORCE WIND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND ALL
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS. THE LOW
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NNE TONIGHT WITH SOME REORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. GIVEN THIS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SSE TO NNW,
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND LINGERING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHES. BAY
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, GALE WARNINGS END LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND NRN NC COASTAL WATERS,
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS, MOUTH OF THE
BAY, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND MONDAY MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CHES. BAY. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 12-15FT AND OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 20FT AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES IN
THE CHES. BAY ARE MAINLY 4- 6FT, WITH 6-10FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.
WITH A BROADER/ELONGATED COASTAL LOW BY MONDAY, THE PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE PROLONGED INTO TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. N WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN HIGH- END SCA
LEVELS DURING THAT PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY (DEPENDENT
ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST). THE GRADIENT FINALLY
STARTS TO RELAX THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 15-20 FT RANGE (SIG WAVE HEIGHT),
WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25+ FT. SIG WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY RANGE BETWEEN 5-8 FT, WITH 9-10 FT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY. AS WINDS DECREASE NEXT WEEK, SO WILL THE SEAS, BUT ONLY
GRADUALLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY..
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH SOME SPOTS (E.G.
JAMESTOWN/LYNNHAVEN) SEEING PEAK WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.5-0.75
FT ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. CRESTS AT SEWELL'S POINT, YORKTOWN,
AND LYNNHAVEN WERE ABOUT 0.10 FT BELOW THE LEVELS OBSERVED ON 1/3/2022.
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN TO 2.5-3.5 FT ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT N-NE
WIND AND BUILDING SEAS. WITH THE VERY HIGH TIDAL ANOMALIES,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, EVEN THOUGH IT IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE JAMES RIVER AND S/SE SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT (BUT
WILL DROP THE WARNING FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE).
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO AT LEAST MONDAY (POSSIBLY
TUESDAY), WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE,
THOUGH EXACT WATER LEVELS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-025.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-
100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ075>078-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ082>086-089-090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-098-
525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634-638-
650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...HET/SW
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...HET/SW
LONG TERM...HET/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/ERI/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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