673
FXUS61 KAKQ 130703
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 AM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, BEFORE PULLING AWAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PREVAILS INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORK WEEK. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LINGERING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE LEADS TO MOSTLY CLOUDY AND
COOL CONDITIONS TODAY. CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE
REMAIN ON THE EASTERN SHORE.
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS A BIFURCATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE JUST
OFFSHORE, WITH ONE CENTER (~1004 MB) OFF THE DELMARVA COAST AND THE
OTHER CENTER (~1003 MB) VERY NEAR CAPE FEAR, NC. THE LOWER LEVELS
ARE NEARLY SATURATED JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE, LEADING TO WIDESPREAD
CLOUDINESS AND POCKETS OF LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE. THIS IS MOST
FOCUSED ON THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE...ON THE BACKSIDE OF THAT LOW.
OTHERWISE, IT REMAINS BREEZY (ESPECIALLY AT THE COAST) WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID-UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 F. ALL PRIOR WIND
ADVISORIES HAVE EXPIRED OR WERE CANCELLED.
THE SFC LOW TO OUR SOUTH WILL SLIDE EASTWARD AND OFFSHORE AS THE
ASSOCIATED UPPER LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC PIVOTS EASTWARD. THE
OTHER LOW WILL SLOWLY MEANDER JUST OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY AND IT
SHOULD EVENTUALLY SLIDE SOUTHWARD ALONG OUR COAST LATE TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY. THIS EVOLUTION WILL FAVOR RATHER DREARY CONDITIONS FOR THE
REST OF THE DAY AND TONIGHT AS THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS OUT OF THE
N, WITH CONTINUED PUSHES OF LOW/MID-LEVEL MOISTURE. SOME PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE COULD OCCUR IN THE PIEDMONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON, BUT EXPECT
MOSTLY CLOUDY TO OVERCAST SKIES FOR OUR AREA. HIGH TEMPERATURES
RANGE FROM THE MID-UPPER 60S. LASTLY, THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT
NEAR THE COAST SHOULD KEEP THE WINDS ON THE BREEZY SIDE,
ESPECIALLY THIS MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON.
AS THAT (WEAK) LOW MOVES SOUTHWARD ALONG THE COAST TONIGHT, EXPECT
ONE MORE ROUND OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE, ESPECIALLY FOR N/NE
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. FORECAST OVERNIGHT LOWS ARE IN THE
50S.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRIER TUESDAY WITH GRADUALLY CLEARING SKIES.
- VERY PLEASANT, SUNNY, AND DRY WEDNESDAY.
THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOWS FINALLY GET KICKED AWAY ON
TUESDAY. SOME LINGERING DRIZZLE OR LIGHT RAIN CAN'T BE RULED OUT
NEAR THE COAST IN THE MORNING, BUT OTHERWISE SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM W TO E THROUGH THE DAY. HIGHS RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S E
TO LOWER 70S IN THE PIEDMONT. LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE 50S,
COOLEST W/NW.
ON WEDNESDAY, SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR WILL
BUILD DOWN TOWARD THE LOCAL AREA. ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE REMAINS OVER
THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH TROUGHING EXTENDING FROM EASTERN CANADA
SOUTHWARD INTO NEW ENGLAND. THIS SETUP WILL FAVOR MILDER
CONDITIONS FOR THE AREA (HIGHS IN THE LOWER- MID 70S) UNDER A
SUNNY SKY. CHILLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND DROPPING INTO THE 40S.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER, BUT REMAINING DRY, THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A WARMING
TREND BEGINS DURING THE WEEKEND.
- POTENTIAL FOR FROST AWAY FROM THE COAST THURSDAY NIGHT.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH DIVES SOUTHWARD TO OUR NE LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY, WITH A SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF COLD AND DRY
ADVECTION EXPECTED. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE WILL ALSO
TRANSLATE EASTWARD AND BECOME CENTERED IN THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES VICINITY. THEREFORE, MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH DAYTIME HIGHS ONLY IN THE LOWER-MID
60S (FEELING VERY MUCH LIKE FALL!). THE COOLEST NIGHT OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD IS ANTICIPATED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH SOME FROST POTENTIAL APPARENT. THE BLENDED GUIDANCE
IS ALREADY OUTPUTTING TEMPS IN THE UPPER 30S FOR MOST AREAS
INLAND AND WITH HIGH PRESSURE CENTERING VERY NEAR THE AREA AND
CLEAR SKIES, THESE VALUES ARE PROBABLY TOO HIGH. IN THIS
RESPECT, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF WE SAW WIDESPREAD READINGS IN
THE MID 30S. CLOSER TO THE COAST, TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN IN THE
LOWER 40S. FRIDAY NIGHT LOOKS CHILLY AGAIN, BUT NOT AS COOL AS
THE PRIOR NIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 40S.
A WARMING TREND LIKELY BEGINS BY THE WEEKEND AS HEIGHTS ALOFT BUILD
AND A RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD. FORECAST HIGHS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
RANGE THROUGH THE 70S, WITH SUNDAY LIKELY THE WARMER DAY OF THE TWO.
AN UPPER TROUGH AND COLD FRONT WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING THE AREA
FROM THE NW, POTENTIALLY BRINGING OUR NEXT SHOT AT PRECIP BY LATER
SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS NOT VERY HIGH IN
THE TIMING DEPARTMENT BEING THIS IS STILL ~7 DAYS OUT.
AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 130 AM EDT MONDAY...
DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THIS MORNING
AS TWO AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE SPIN OFFSHORE, ONE TO OUR S AND
ONE TO OUR E. CIGS ARE IFR NEAR THE COAST AND AT SBY, WITH LOW-
END MVFR (1000-1500 FT) FURTHER INLAND. CIGS MAY BOUNCE AROUND
SOME THROUGH THIS MORNING, BUT DON'T EXPECT ANY DRASTIC
CHANGES TO THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES. LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE ALSO
CANNOT BE RULED OUT, WITH THE BEST CHANCES AT SBY. A BIT OF AN
UNCERTAIN FORECAST THIS AFTERNOON WITH MOST GUIDANCE NOW
SUGGESTING CIGS STAY MVFR AT MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE DAY,
THOUGH SBY SHOULD REMAIN IFR. WILL NOW REFLECT THIS IN THE 06Z
TAFS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO IFR OR
LIFR EVERYWHERE TONIGHT, WITH -RADZ AND LOWER VSBY ALSO
DEVELOPING AFTER ~02Z TUESDAY.
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING AVERAGE 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO
20 KT, EXCEPT 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT AT ORF. COMPARED TO
YESTERDAY, WINDS WILL BE LOWER THIS AFTERNOON WITH WIND SPEEDS
AROUND 15 KT AND GUSTS 20-25 KT, WHILE ALSO TAKING ON A NNW
DIRECTION. WINDS RELAX TO ~10 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS DUE TO BOTH CIGS AND VSBY
(FROM -RADZ AND BR) PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BY DAYTIME TUESDAY
AND ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 810 PM EDT SUNDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- STRONG LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT.
- ALL STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS.
REGARDLESS DANGEROUS MARINE CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT.
- WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE LOW IS
SLOW TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE REGION, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE NW.
CONVERTED THE GALE WARNINGS TO SCAS FOR THE UPPER RIVERS (THAT
RUN UNTIL 22Z/6 PM MONDAY FOR NOW). WILL KEEP ALL OTHER GALE
HEADLINES AS IS, SINCE WINDS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED A BIT
WHILE BECOMING MORE NORTHERLY OVER THE BAY/LOWER JAMES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 345 PM EDT...
998 MB LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHERN NC COAST HAS BECOME
OCCLUDED AND IS NEARLY STATIONARY. A STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS TO
THE NE OF THIS LOW WITH SOME PRESSURE FALLS MODELED ALONG THIS
BOUNDARY, BUT WELL E OF THE DELMARVA COAST, AND ANOTHER AREA OF
LOW PRESSURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO DEVELOP. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
REMAINS STRONG AND THIS IS RESULTING IN A GALE FORCE ENE WIND
FOR MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER, WITH A LACK OF STRONG PRESSURE
FALLS LOCALLY STORM FORCE WIND IS NO LONGER EXPECTED AND ALL
STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE WARNINGS. THE LOW
GRADUALLY BEGINS TO LIFT NNE TONIGHT WITH SOME REORGANIZATION
POSSIBLE OFF THE DELMARVA COAST. GIVEN THIS, THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT WILL SLACKEN AND THE WIND WILL DIMINISH SSE TO NNW,
WITH THE STRONGEST WIND LINGERING IN THE MIDDLE OF THE CHES. BAY
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. THEREFORE, GALE WARNINGS END LATER
THIS EVENING FOR THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND NRN NC COASTAL WATERS,
LATER TONIGHT FOR THE REMAINING COASTAL WATERS, MOUTH OF THE
BAY, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND MONDAY MORNING FOR THE REMAINDER
OF THE CHES. BAY. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 12-15FT AND OCCASIONALLY
UP TO 20FT AND THIS SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT. WAVES IN
THE CHES. BAY ARE MAINLY 4- 6FT, WITH 6-10FT IN THE MOUTH OF THE
BAY.
WITH A BROADER/ELONGATED COASTAL LOW BY MONDAY, THE PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE REGION WILL BE PROLONGED INTO TUESDAY AND
POTENTIALLY WEDNESDAY AS DRIER AIR MOVES IN AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE NW. N WINDS SHOULD REMAIN IN HIGH- END SCA
LEVELS DURING THAT PERIOD, WITH A PERIOD OF MARGINAL GALE
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO MIDDAY TUESDAY (DEPENDENT
ON HOW CLOSE THE LOW IS TO THE COAST). THE GRADIENT FINALLY
STARTS TO RELAX THURSDAY WITH IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS. SEAS
ARE FORECAST TO PEAK IN THE 15-20 FT RANGE (SIG WAVE HEIGHT),
WITH OCCASIONAL WAVES UP TO 25+ FT. SIG WAVES IN THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY RANGE BETWEEN 5-8 FT, WITH 9-10 FT POSSIBLE AT THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY. AS WINDS DECREASE NEXT WEEK, SO WILL THE SEAS, BUT ONLY
GRADUALLY.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 815 PM EDT SUNDAY..
WIDESPREAD MODERATE TO MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING OCCURRED DURING THE
AFTN/EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WITH SOME SPOTS (E.G.
JAMESTOWN/LYNNHAVEN) SEEING PEAK WATER LEVELS AROUND 0.5-0.75
FT ABOVE MAJOR FLOOD STAGE. CRESTS AT SEWELL'S POINT, YORKTOWN,
AND LYNNHAVEN WERE ABOUT 0.10 FT BELOW THE LEVELS OBSERVED ON 1/3/2022.
TIDAL ANOMALIES HAVE ACTUALLY RISEN TO 2.5-3.5 FT ABOVE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE LEVELS THIS EVENING WITH THE PERSISTENT N-NE
WIND AND BUILDING SEAS. WITH THE VERY HIGH TIDAL ANOMALIES,
MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED WITH
TONIGHT'S HIGH TIDE, EVEN THOUGH IT IS THE LOWER OF THE TWO
ASTRONOMICAL TIDES. THE HIGHEST WATER LEVELS TONIGHT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE ALONG THE JAMES RIVER AND S/SE SHORE OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY. COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT (BUT
WILL DROP THE WARNING FOR THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE).
ADDITIONAL FLOODING IS LIKELY INTO AT LEAST MONDAY (POSSIBLY
TUESDAY), WITH THE SLOWER PROGRESSION OF COASTAL LOW PRESSURE,
THOUGH EXACT WATER LEVELS BECOME MORE UNCERTAIN GIVEN THE
POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO DIMINISH SOMEWHAT AND TO BECOME
NORTHWESTERLY AS THE LOW MOVES AWAY FROM THE COAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ021>023.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR MDZ024-
025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR MDZ025.
NC...HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR NCZ102.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ102.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ099-
100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR VAZ098>100.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ075>078-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ082>086-089-090-093-095>098-518-520-523>525.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-658.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR ANZ634-638-
650-652-654-656.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...HET/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...AJZ/ERI/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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