185
FXUS61 KAKQ 140230
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1030 PM EDT MON OCT 13 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE WILL LINGER OFF THE DELMARVA COAST THROUGH
TONIGHT, BEFORE PULLING AWAY TUESDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
FROM THE NORTHWEST. DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PREVAILS INTO
WEDNESDAY, WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES TO END THE WORK WEEK. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1000 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO LINGER OFF THE COAST THROUGH TONIGHT
BEFORE MOVING FURTHER OFFSHORE TOMORROW. CHANCES OF DRIZZLE TO
LIGHT RAIN CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHEAST PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
THE FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH LOW PRESSURE
MEANDERING OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. AREAS OF DRIZZLE
(WITH EMBEDDED LIGHT RAIN) PERSIST ACROSS NE PORTIONS OF THE
FA. THE LIGHT RAIN AND DRIZZLE WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE NIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW STARTS TO MOVE SOUTH. AREAS WEST
OF I-95 AREN'T EXPECTED TO SEE MUCH OF ANY PRECIP. LOWS
GENERALLY IN THE MID 50S-LOWER 60S.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION AS OF 330 PM...
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A UPPER LEVEL LOW SITTING OVER THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE MID-ATLANTIC. WHILE AT THE SURFACE, A
BIFURCATED AREA OF 1008MB LOW PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SIT OFF SHORE.
WITH ONE SITTING OFF THE THE SOUTHERN NJ COAST AND THE OTHER ONE
JUST OFF THE SE NC COAST. THE LOWER LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE
CONTINUE TO BE SATURATED LEADING TO HEAVY DRIZZLE TO LIGHT SHOWERS.
WHILE ACROSS THE WEST SOME CLEARING HAS BEGUN WITH SOME PEAKS OF
SUNSHINE ACROSS THE FAR WEST. WITH SOME PEAKS OF SUNSHINE ACROSS THE
WEST THIS HAS LEAD TO SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE WEST WHILE
THE EAST REMAINS COOL. TEMPERATURES AS OF 2:15PM ARE IN THE MIDDLE
60S ACROSS THE WEST AND LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EAST WITH UPPER 50S
ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
THROUGH TONIGHT AND EARLY TUESDAY AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED
TO COME OUT OF CANADA HELPING TO FINALLY MOVE THE STAGNANT UPPER
LEVEL LOW OUT OF THE AREA. AS THIS OCCURS THE LOW PRESSURE AT THE
SURFACE WILL FINALLY MOVE FURTHER OFF SHORE. HOWEVER, BEFORE IT
FINALLY LEAVES HEAVY DRIZZLE TO LIGHT RAIN WILL CONTINUE ACROSS FAR
EASTERN VA AND THE EASTERN SHORE. POPS ACROSS THE MENTIONED AREA
WILL BE BETWEEN 30 TO 50% WITH QPF TOTALS LESS THAN .1".
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH DUE TO THE ONGOING CLOUD
COVER AND SHOWERS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND UPPER
50S ALONG THE COASTLINE. THROUGHOUT TUESDAY DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
INTO PLACE AS NW ALOFT COMES IN AND THE LOW MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE.
CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY WILL CLEAR TO THE WEST. HOWEVER, ACROSS
THE EAST CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO LINGER. THIS AGAIN WILL LEAD TO A
SPLIT IN TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE CWA. HIGHS FOR TUESDAY WILL BE IN
THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S ACROSS THE WEST AND MIDDLE 60S ACROSS THE
EAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- VERY PLEASANT, SUNNY, AND DRY WEDNESDAY.
- COOLER TEMPERATURES RETURN THURSDAY WITH LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT
DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY HELPING TO USHER IN DRIER AIR. FOR WEDNESDAY THE UPPER LOW
WILL BE FAR OFF SHORE AND SKIES WILL REMAIN CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR
ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR AMPLE DAYTIME HEATING
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO HE LOWER TO MIDDLE 70S. THEN
BY LATE WEDNESDAY A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA AS A
HIGH PRESSURE MOVED OUT OF CANADA OVER THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL
ALLOW FOR A MUCH COOLER NIGHT WITH LOWS WED INTO THURS BEING IN THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST. THURSDAY
WILL BE MUCH COOLER AS THE COLD FRONT HAS MOVED ACROSS THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE GREAT LAKES VICINITY
KEEPING THE DRY WEATHER CONDITIONS IN PLACE. HIGHS THURSDAY WILL BE
IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60S. BY THURSDAY NIGHT, HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE
OVER THE AREA. THIS SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO CALM AND SKIES TO REMAIN
CLEAR. STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING SHOULD OCCUR ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S INLAND AND
MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST. THERE HAS BEEN HINTS OF
POTENTIAL MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EDT MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
-WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
-CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
BY FRIDAY AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS PROGGED TO BE OVER THE AREA. WHILE
AT THE SURFACE A HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLOWLY MOVE OVER THE AREA BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE COAST LATE FRIDAY. DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL THROUGH
FRIDAY AND TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN COOL WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 60S. SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE
ALLOWING SW FLOW TO OVERTAKE THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
RISE WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE LOW TO MIDDLE 70S. THEN BY SUNDAY
THE RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BREAK DOWN AND A LARGE UPPER TROUGH WILL
OVERTAKE THE REGION. WHILE AT THE SURFACE A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE
ACROSS THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TEMPERATURES COULD
POTENTIALLY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO EVEN UPPER 70S. WILL NOTE THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY WEATHER ENOUGH MOISTURE IS ABLE TO
RETURN AHEAD OF THIS FRONT POTENTIALLY LEADING TO SHOWERS. AS OF NOW
CAPPED POPS OFF BETWEEN 30 TO 40% LATE SUNDAY.
AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 750 PM EDT MONDAY...
IFR CIGS AND DRIZZLE CONTINUE TO PREVAIL AT SBY THIS EVENING
WITH MVFR FARTHER SOUTH AS LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MEANDER
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA. FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE
THEN EXPECTED TO DEGRADE TO IFR OR LIFR EVERYWHERE AFTER 04-06Z,
WITH DRIZZLE AND LOWER VSBY AGAIN POTENTIALLY DEVELOPING AS THE
LOW SLOWLY MOVES SOUTHWARD OFF THE COAST. IFR CIGS WILL LIKELY
LINGER NEAR THE COAST THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTN WITH CIGS
IMPROVING TO MVFR AT RIC BY LATE MORNING. GUSTY N-NNW WINDS (TO
15-25 KT) ARE EXPECTED AT ALL OF THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
OUTLOOK: IMPROVING CONDITIONS ARE THEN EXPECTED FROM TUESDAY
EVENING THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 400 PM EDT MONDAY..
KEY MESSAGES:
- WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH THURSDAY, BUT SHOULD PRIMARILY
BE SUB-GALE, WITH A FEW BRIEF PERIODS OF MARGINAL GUSTS TO
~35 KT TUESDAY MORNING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
AN UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION THIS AFTN, WITH
TWO SURFACE LOWS, ONE OFF THE NJ COAST, AND THE OTHER OFF THE
CAROLINA COAST. THE WIND IS N AND GENERALLY 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO
~30KT. SEAS ARE PRIMARILY 7-9FT, WITH 3-5FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY,
AND LOCALLY 5-6FT AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE ENTIRE AREA AND ALL GALE WARNINGS HAVE ENDED.
LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE THROUGH MIDWEEK AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
SLOW TO BUILD IN FROM THE NW. THERE ARE TWO PERIODS WHERE MARGINAL
GALES MAY DEVELOP FOR A FEW HRS- THE FIRST BEING TUESDAY MORNING IN
THE BAY AND OCEAN, AS THE DELMARVA LOW PIVOTS BACK SE WITH
MARGINALLY COOLER/DRIER AIR MOVING ACROSS THE WATERS, AND AGAIN LATE
WED/WED NIGHT, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW, BRINGING
COOL, DRY AIR AND PRESSURE RISES OVER THE RELATIVE WARMTH OF THE
LOCAL WATERS. FOR NOW, THE PROBS FOR 34KT+ GUSTS ARE FAIRLY LOW,
EXCEPT FARTHER OFFSHORE ON THE OCEAN, SO SCAS RUN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
FOR THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS, THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FOR THE
LOWER JAMES AND CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THROUGH TONIGHT FOR THE UPPER
RIVERS. CONDITIONS FINALLY IMPROVE MORE SIGNIFICANTLY TOWARDS THE
END OF THE WEEK, AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SETTLE OVER THE
AREA.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 953 PM EDT MONDAY..
A STRONG EBB TIDE EARLIER TODAY WAS FOLLOWED BY A MUCH WEAKER
FLOOD TIDE THIS EVENING. BASED ON OBS AND TRENDS, HAVE REPLACED
THE REMAINING COASTAL FLOOD WARNINGS FROM VA BEACH AND POINTS
NORTHWARD ON THE VA EASTERN SHORE AND WORCESTER MD WITH COASTAL
FLOOD ADVISORIES. WHILE THE OVERNIGHT HIGH TIDE MAY ONLY REACH
ACTION FLOOD STAGE IN THE SE VA AREA, THE SUBSEQUENT HIGH TIDE
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IS PROGGED TO REACH MINOR FLOOD STAGE, SO
HAVE MAINTAINED COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES IN THE LOWER BAY AND
PORTIONS OF THE JAMES RIVER. THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN
TOMORROW'S HIGH TIDE LEVELS IN THAT AREA AS TODAY'S HIGH TIDE
UNDER-PERFORMED, SO WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR ANY TRENDS IN
THE UPCOMING HIGH TIDE AND RE-ASSESS AS NECESSARY. ELSEWHERE,
HAVE LET THE ADVISORIES EXPIRE ALONG THE MIDDLE PENINSULA, BUT
HAVE LEFT THE ADVISORIES UP FOR THE NORTHERN NECK AREA TO COVER
THE LATE EVENING HIGH TIDE CYCLE. THESE ADVISORIES WILL EXPIRE
AT 11 PM. A COASTAL FLOOD STATEMENT MAY BE NECESSARY FOR
TOMORROW'S HIGH TIDE FROM YORKTOWN AND NORTH BUT THE ETSS/P-ETSS
GUIDANCE IS DOING A POOR JOB AT HANDLING THE CURRENTS AT THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY (AND IS OVER- FORECASTING WATER LEVELS FARTHER
UP THE BAY AND TIDAL RIVERS).
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR MDZ024-025.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ095-
097>100.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
VAZ075>078-521-522.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM EDT TUESDAY FOR VAZ082-089-
090-093-096-523>525.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ633-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EDT TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...HET/SW
NEAR TERM...ERI/HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...ERI/HET
MARINE...AJZ/LKB
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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