282
FXUS61 KAKQ 150726
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
326 AM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY, AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY, THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE LOCAL AREA
IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH WELL OFF THE COAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE SURFACE,
LOW PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER LOW,
WITH AN EXPANSIVE STRONG HIGH (~1030 MB) BUILDING ACROSS THE
UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN ONTARIO REGION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. THE
GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES CONTINUES TO BRING ELEVATED
WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST EARLY THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE
CWA, WHILE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN PLACE ALONG AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE UPPER 50S
TO LOWER 60S NEAR THE COAST WHERE IT IS CLOUDY (AND BREEZY), TO
AS COOL AS THE UPPER 40S/LOWER 50S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH LIGHT
WINDS AND A CLEAR SKY.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS
THE LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION,
DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT BY THE AFTN, ALLOWING CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST TO FINALLY SCATTER OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST, WITH MID
70S WELL INLAND. LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING, THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW
ENGLAND, PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL,
GENERALLY IN THE 40S INLAND AND IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST IN SE
VA/NE NC WHERE A GUSTY N WIND OFF THE WATER KEEPS IT MILDER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING DRY, BUT TURNING COOLER THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
- AT LEAST PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI
AM W OF I-95 WITH LOWS AS COLD AS THE MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
THE LOW- MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
FARTHER INLAND. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING
AND HAVE UNDERCUT NBM DEW PTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN COLLABORATION
W/ NEIGHBORING OFFICES. NOT REALLY EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WX CONCERNS, BUT DO ANTICIPATE SEEING MIN RH VALUES DOWN NEAR
30% ALONG AND W OF I-95 WITH BREEZY N WINDS. THE 00Z/15 MODEL
SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SE THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL NOT BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SETUP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
DECOUPLING IN THE PIEDMONT, BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO THE LOCATION. GIVEN THIS, BLENDED IN NBM10TH PERCENTILE,
AS WELL AS THE MAV VALUES FOR THE PIEDMONT, BUT MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM FOR AREAS E OF I-95. EXPECT TO SEE LOWS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S FOR MANY PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (ALONG WITH AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS), WITH AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE
CHANCE FOR A FREEZE IS VERY MINIMAL, BUT A FROST ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED IN THE FAR WEST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE. NEAR THE COAST, IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER GIVEN
MIXING, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
BY FRIDAY, MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE FROM THE GULF
COAST REGION NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES, WITH SFC HIGH
PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA UNDERNEATH THE
CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER WILL PREVAIL WITH
FULL SUN AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE HIGH LINGERS ACROSS
THE SE VA AND NC COASTAL PLAIN FRI NIGHT, SO HAVE UNDERCUT NBM
(BLENDED W/ NBM10TH) ALONG AND E OF I-95. LOWS WILL MAINLY BE
40-45F AREAWIDE (WITH SOME LOCAL UPPER 30S POSSIBLE).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND
INTO THE WEEKEND.
- CHANCES OF RAIN INCREASE BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND.
SATURDAY WILL REMAIN DRY BUT THE HIGH WILL BE OFFSHORE ALLOWING
SW FLOW TO OVERTAKE THE AREA, BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE 70S. THEN BY SUNDAY, THE RIDGE
MOVES OFF TO THE EAST, ALLOWING A LARGE UPPER TROUGH TO MOVE IN
FROM THE W. AT THE SURFACE, A COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE ACROSS THE
AREA LATER SUN/SUN NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
TEMPERATURES COULD POTENTIALLY REACH INTO THE MIDDLE TO UPPER
70S (WARMEST SE). WILL NOTE THERE IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES IT E OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE
CORE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WILL HAVE CHC
POPS, IN THE 30 TO 50% LATE SUNDAY/SUN NIGHT. PRECIP WILL LIKELY
DECREASE MONDAY ALLOWING TEMPS HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F.
AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
LOW PRESSURE LINGERING OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO BRING ELEVATED NNE
WINDS TO THE REGION, ALONG WITH MVFR CIGS FOR ALL TERMINALS
OTHER THAN RIC WHERE IT IS MOSTLY CLEAR. EXPECT BKN-OVC CONDITIONS
WITH CIGS 1500-2500 FT THROUGH ~15Z AT SBY/PHF/ORF/ECG, BEFORE
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT BETWEEN 15-18Z. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL GUST TO
20-25 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTN ALONG THE COAST AND TO 15-20 KT
INLAND. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AFTER ~18Z FOR THE REGION,
AND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY, THOUGH WITH N WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED ALONG
THE COAST THU. DRY WITH LIGHTER WINDS FRI- SAT. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT BRINGS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 335 PM EDT TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RELATIVE LULL IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH
1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY N 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EASTERN CHES BAY AND
OFFSHORE WITH LOWER WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAY
AND INTO THE TIDAL RIVERS. WAVES ARE 2-3 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS
OFFSHORE 5-8 FT (HIGHEST S).
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY RELAXES TODAY AHEAD OF A FEW SURGES OF
COLD/DRY ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES IN THE BAY THROUGH THE LULL RATHER THAN
CANCELING AND REISSUING. THE SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN
CANCELED WITH WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 KT. ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TONIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
TONIGHT AND LINGER IN THAT RANGE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF COLD ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND PROBS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALES WITH THESE SURGES BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS MIXING OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS VERY EFFICIENT IN COLD/DRY ADVECTION THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MUCH IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS. FLOW BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLDS WELL
INTO FRIDAY IN THE BAY AND EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AS
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...LKB/NB
MARINE...RHR
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