805
FXUS61 KAKQ 151738
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
138 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
DRY AND SEASONABLE WEATHER PREVAILS TODAY, AHEAD OF A DRY COLD
FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL AND DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED BY THE
WEEKEND AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS
LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1050 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CLOUDS LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF THE CWA THROUGH
MIDDAY, THEN BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR ALL AREAS LATER TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS NW FLOW ALOFT AS THE LOCAL AREA
IS LOCATED IN BETWEEN A DEEP TROUGH WELL OFF THE COAST AND AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL CONUS. AT THE
SURFACE, LOW PRESSURE IS WELL OFFSHORE CO-LOCATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW, WITH AN EXPANSIVE STRONG HIGH (~1030 MB) BUILDING ACROSS
THE UPPER MIDWEST AND WESTERN ONTARIO REGION NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR.
THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES CONTINUES TO BRING
ELEVATED WINDS CLOSER TO THE COAST THIS MORNING. LINGERING LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND LOW CLOUDS PERSIST ACROSS THE EASTERN 1/2 OF
THE CWA, WHILE A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY IS IN PLACE ALONG AND W OF THE
I-95 CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES CURRENTLY RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S
NEAR THE COAST WHERE IT IS CLOUDY (AND BREEZY), TO AS WARM AS
THE UPPER 60S IN THE PIEDMONT WITH CLEAR SKIES.
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA TODAY, AND AS
THE LOW OFFSHORE CONTINUES TO MOVE FARTHER AWAY FROM THE REGION,
DRIER AIR SHOULD EVENTUALLY WIN OUT BY THE AFTN, ALLOWING CLOUDS
ALONG THE COAST TO FINALLY SCATTER OUT. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
RANGE FROM THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S NEAR THE COAST, WITH MID
70S WELL INLAND. LATE THIS AFTN/EVENING, THE NEXT UPPER TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE WILL DIVE SE ACROSS QUEBEC AND NEW
ENGLAND, PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE MID-ATLANTIC
TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WILL BE COOL,
GENERALLY IN THE 40S INLAND AND IN THE 50S NEAR THE COAST IN SE
VA/NE NC WHERE A GUSTY N WIND OFF THE WATER KEEPS IT MILDER.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING DRY, BUT TURNING COOLER THURSDAY-FRIDAY.
- AT LEAST PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI
AM W OF I-95 WITH LOWS AS COLD AS THE MID 30S.
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE
THE LOW- MID 60S CLOSER TO THE COAST AND IN THE MID-UPPER 60S
FARTHER INLAND. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL RESULT IN DEEP MIXING
AND HAVE UNDERCUT NBM DEW PTS BY SEVERAL DEGREES IN COLLABORATION
W/ NEIGHBORING OFFICES. NOT REALLY EXPECTING SIGNIFICANT FIRE
WX CONCERNS, BUT DO ANTICIPATE SEEING MIN RH VALUES DOWN NEAR
30% ALONG AND W OF I-95 WITH BREEZY N WINDS. THE 00Z/15 MODEL
SUITE CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
WILL MOVE SE THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WILL NOT BECOME CENTERED OVER
THE LOCAL AREA UNTIL DURING THE DAY ON FRIDAY. THE SETUP
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR
DECOUPLING IN THE PIEDMONT, BUT WITH MORE UNCERTAINTY ELSEWHERE
DUE TO THE LOCATION. GIVEN THIS, BLENDED IN NBM10TH PERCENTILE,
AS WELL AS THE MAV VALUES FOR THE PIEDMONT, BUT MADE ONLY MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS TO THE NBM FOR AREAS E OF I-95. EXPECT TO SEE LOWS
IN THE MID- UPPER 30S FOR MANY PIEDMONT LOCATIONS (ALONG WITH AT
LEAST PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED AREAS), WITH AREAS ALONG THE
I-95 CORRIDOR GENERALLY IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. THE
CHANCE FOR A FREEZE IS VERY MINIMAL, BUT A FROST ADVISORY COULD
EVENTUALLY BE ISSUED IN THE FAR WEST DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE. NEAR THE COAST, IT WILL BE SIGNIFICANTLY WARMER GIVEN
MIXING, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S.
BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON, MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES AN UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE FROM THE GULF COAST REGION NORTHWARD TO THE GREAT LAKES,
WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE LOCAL AREA
UNDERNEATH THE CONFLUENT NW FLOW ALOFT. DRY AND COOL WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL WITH FULL SUN AND HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S. THE
HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SE VA AND NC COASTAL PLAIN FRI NIGHT, SO
HAVE UNDERCUT NBM (BLENDED W/ NBM10TH) ALONG AND E OF I-95.
LOWS WILL MAINLY BE 40-45F AREAWIDE (WITH SOME LOCAL UPPER 30S
POSSIBLE).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 330 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR THE WEEKEND.
- THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN IS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND
SHIFTS EAST TO THE COAST SATURDAY, AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY
MORNING. THIS CONSENSUS IS SLIGHTLY SLOWER THAN WHAT THE MODELS
HAD SHOWN YESTERDAY, SO THE LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SATURDAY WILL TEND
TO BE LIGHTER (AND COULD EVEN ALLOW FOR LIGHT ONSHORE FLOW NEAR
THE COAST). IT WILL BE MAINLY SUNNY, BUT STAYING A BIT COOLER
ALONG THE COAST WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S, AS INLAND ZONES
RISE INTO THE LOWER 70S. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
W LATE SUNDAY, WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NNE ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SUNDAY,
AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUN NIGHT. INCREASING
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD HELP TEMPERATURES RISE WELL INTO THE 70S,
POTENTIALLY INTO THE UPPER 70S ACROSS THE SE. WILL NOTE THERE
IS STILL A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE MAKES IT E
OF THE APPALACHIANS WITH THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY, POTENTIALLY TAKING ON A NEGATIVE TILT
(WHICH SOMETIMES LEADS TO THE PRECIP PATTERN SPLITTING E OF THE
MOUNTAINS). THE 00Z/15 EPS IS SHOWING ~50% CHC FOR SEEING
0.50"+ OF QPF FOR THE EVENT FOR AREAS E OF I-95 AND LOWER CHANCE
WEST, WHILE GEFS IS MUCH DRIER WITH ONLY ~10% FOR SEEING THAT
AMOUNT FOR AREAS ALONG THE COAST. WILL HAVE CHC POPS, IN THE 30
TO 50% RANGE LATE SUNDAY, AND HIGH CHC (50%) TO LIKELY (60%)
POPS SUN NIGHT (HIGHEST N). GENERALLY DRYING OUT MONDAY FROM SW
TO NE, WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70F, AND DRY WITH
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS OUTSIDE OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK OVER SE VA/NE
NC THIS AFTERNOON. THE CLOUDS CONTINUE TO MOVE FARTHER SE AWAY FROM
THE AREA WITH NOW ONLY ORF AND ECG REMAINING UNDER MVFR CIGS. THE
CLOUD DECK WILL MOVE OUT OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON BY 20Z AT THE
LATEST IN THE FAR SOUTHEAST (ORF WILL LIKELY CLEAR WITHIN THE NEXT
HOUR). VFR CONDITIONS ARE NOW SEEN ELSEWHERE, WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND WILL PREVAIL INTO THURSDAY EVENING. ELEVATED WINDS
CONTINUE AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS OFFSHORE AT ~10 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO
20 KT. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY, WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE WINDS MORE DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS WILL RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 300 AM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- RELATIVE LULL IN WIND SPEEDS EXPECTED TODAY BEFORE WINDS INCREASE
AGAIN FROM TONIGHT THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BEFORE
MOVING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
MORNING ANALYSIS SHOWS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE NOW WELL OFFSHORE WITH
1030MB HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR. WINDS ARE
GENERALLY N 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE EASTERN CHES BAY AND
OFFSHORE WITH LOWER WINDS OBSERVED ALONG THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE BAY
AND INTO THE TIDAL RIVERS. WAVES ARE 2-3 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS
OFFSHORE 5-8 FT (HIGHEST S).
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY RELAXES TODAY AHEAD OF A FEW SURGES OF
COLD/DRY ADVECTION EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY EVENING INTO THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY.
WILL MAINTAIN SCA HEADLINES IN THE BAY THROUGH THE LULL RATHER THAN
CANCELING AND REISSUING. THE SCA FOR THE LOWER JAMES HAS BEEN
CANCELED WITH WINDS AVERAGING 10-15 KT. ADDITIONAL SCA HEADLINES
WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND TONIGHT
INTO LATE WEEK. WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT
TONIGHT AND LINGER IN THAT RANGE INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS ADDITIONAL
WAVES OF COLD ADVECTION MOVE ACROSS THE WATERS. WIND PROBS HAVE
BACKED OFF ON THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALES WITH THESE SURGES BUT
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR OBS AND THE LATEST GUIDANCE AS MIXING OF
STRONGER FLOW ALOFT IS VERY EFFICIENT IN COLD/DRY ADVECTION THIS
TIME OF YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MUCH IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS. FLOW BECOME
SOUTHERLY BY LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OFFSHORE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
SCAS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED INTO EARLY THURSDAY EVENING FOR THE BAY AND
COASTAL WATERS. WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN ABOVE THRESHOLDS WELL
INTO FRIDAY IN THE BAY AND EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE OFFSHORE ZONES AS
SEAS WILL BE SLOW TO SUBSIDE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 PM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EDT
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 AM EDT
FRIDAY FOR ANZ638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC/LKB
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...RHR
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