105
FXUS61 KAKQ 160102
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
902 PM EDT WED OCT 15 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT DROPS ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. COOL
AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND,
AS HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES ACROSS THE REGION. A WARMING TREND IS
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE. THE NEXT
CHANCE FOR SOME LIGHT RAIN COMES LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY
WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 900 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT. BREEZY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
COAST, IN THE WAKE OF A WEAK, DRY COLD FRONT.
- OVERNIGHT LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S INLAND, UPPER 40S TO LOW
50S ALONG THE COAST.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE AND STRONG
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE (~1026MB) CENTERED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS PUSHING A DRY COLD FRONT TOWARDS
THE REGION, WHICH WILL DROP ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA INTO THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY. THIS WILL RESULT IN WINDS BRIEFLY
INCREASING INTO THE OVERNIGHT, GUSTING TO 10-15 MPH, HIGHEST
ALONG THE COAST. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE NOTICEABLY
COOLER TONIGHT, WITH LOWS IN THE MID 40S INLAND TO UPPER 40S/LOWER
50S IN SE VA/NE NC, AS WELL-MIXED BL AND GUSTY N WINDS OFF THE
WATERS KEEP TEMPERATURES WARMER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- REMAINING DRY, BUT TURNING COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY BEHIND A
COLD FRONT.
- AT LEAST PATCHY FROST WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE THURSDAY NIGHT/FRI
MORNING W OF I-95 WITH LOWS AS COLD AS THE MID 30S.
BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED DRY COLD FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NOTICEABLY COOLER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL CAUSE
DEEP MIXING BETWEEN LAYERS OF THE ATMOSPHERE. THIS WILL CAUSE LOWER
DEWPOINTS IN THE LOWER TO MID 30S AND MIN RH LEVELS IN THE LOWER TO
MID 30% THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN THE PIEDMONT. ALTHOUGH, NOT TOO
CONCERNED ABOUT FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MOST OF THE AREA WILL ONLY
SEE RH VALUES IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S. BREEZY WINDS FROM THE MIXING
ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP TO 15 MPH INLAND AND 15-20 MPH NEAR THE
COAST.
ALONG WITH LOWER DEWPOINTS, TEMPERATURES WILL BE COOLER WITH
HIGHS ON THURSDAY IN THE MID 60S FOR MOST (LOWER 60S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE). RECENT MODELS CONTINUE TO DEPICT HIGH PRESSURE
MOVING OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY, WITH THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE
APPALACHIA MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. WITH THIS
SET UP, DECOUPLING AND RADIATIONAL COOLING IS MORE LIKELY OVER THE
PIEDMONT AREA, WITH PATCHY FROST POSSIBLE AS TEMPERATURES REACH AS
LOW AS THE MID 30S. THE CHANCE FOR A POTENTIAL FREEZE IS QUITE LOW
AT THIS POINT, BUT A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED WITH THE
NEXT FORECAST CYCLE. FARTHER INLAND ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95
CORRIDOR, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH DOWN TO THE UPPER 30S. ALONG THE
COAST, WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY ALLOW THE LOWS TO REACH
THE MID 40S.
FRIDAY, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE MOVES MORE OVERHEARD, HIGH TEMPERATURES
WILL BE COOL LIKE THURSDAY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. DRY AND SUNNY
SKIES WILL PREVAIL FOR THE DAY. CLOUDS WILL BEGIN BUILDING BACK INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT, WHICH WILL PREVENT OVERNIGHT LOWS TO BE AS
COOL AS THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S (WARMER ALONG
THE COAST).
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
LIKELY EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- THE NEXT CHANCE OF RAIN IS LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
GOOD MODEL CONSENSUS THAT THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AMPLIFIES AND SHIFTS
EAST TO THE COAST SATURDAY, AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING.
SATURDAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND,
AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NEAR THE COAST. A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN
FROM THE W LATE SUNDAY, WITH STRONG LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NNE ACROSS
THE GREAT LAKES. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE W ON SUNDAY,
AND ADVANCE ACROSS THE AREA LATER SUN NIGHT. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO
TREND A LITTLE BIT SLOWER, WITH THE TIMING OF ANY PRECIPITATION NOW
LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY MORNING. INCREASING SOUTHERLY SLOW WILL HELP
INCREASE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO THE MID 70S. WITH THE UPPER LOW,
THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE AREA, AS IT
TAKES ON A NEGATIVELY TILTED APPROACH, WHICH MAY CAUSE THE PRECIP TO
SPLIT OVER THE AREA (SEE LATEST 12Z GFS RUN). ALTHOUGH THE GFS RUN
IS PESSIMISTIC ABOUT THE RAINFALL AMOUNTS HERE, THE EPS IS MORE
FAVORABLE SHOWING A 60-80% CHANCE OF 0.1 INCHES/24 HR AND 20% CHANCE
OF 0.5 INCHES/24 HOURS. HAVE MAINTAINED CHANCE POPS FOR NOW. BEHIND
THE TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR NORMAL AND DRY.
AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 810 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
MOSTLY CLEAR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE 00Z/16 TAF PERIOD. SOME SCT/BKN CLOUDS AOA FL100
WILL CLEAR OVERNIGHT, WITH A MAINLY CLEAR/SUNNY SKY TO PREVAIL
TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY EVENING. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
COAST, AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS WELL OFFSHORE. A WEAK COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY THURSDAY,
WHICH WILL THEN INCREASE THE WINDS FURTHER DURING THE DAY
THURSDAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE SUNDAY INTO
EARLY MONDAY WITH POSSIBLE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EDT WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN TONIGHT AND REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS COOLER AND DRIER AIR SURGES SOUTH OVER
THE WATERS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT.
THIS AFTERNOON, ~1030 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHERN
GREAT LAKES. WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED FROM EARLIER AND ARE GENERALLY
OUT OF THE N 10 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND OCEAN AND N
5 TO 15 KNOTS OVER THE RIVERS. SEAS ARE RUNNING AROUND 4 TO 7 FT
(HIGHEST SOUTH) AND 2 TO 3 FT IN THE BAY (3 TO 4 FT AT THE
MOUTH).
A DRY COLD FRONT DROPS SOUTH OVER THE WATERS LATER THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT BRINGING ANOTHER SURGE OF COOLER/DRIER AIR. AS A RESULT,
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AROUND/SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE THIS EVENING
TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED
THROUGH TOMORROW AND THE FIRST HALF OF FRIDAY AS ADDITIONAL SURGES
OF COOL/DRY AIR FILTER OVER THE WATERS. WHILE THERE IS A BRIEF
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW GALE-FORCE GUSTS TOMORROW EVENING/FRIDAY AM,
WIND PROBS HAVE CONTINUED TO DIMINISH, NOW SHOWING ~15 TO 20%
CHANCES MAINLY FOCUSED WELL OFFSHORE. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN
IN EFFECT FOR THE CHESAPEAKE BAY/COASTAL WATERS AND HAVE BEEN
EXTENDED THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. SCAS WERE ALSO ISSUED FOR THE
RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND STARTING LATER THIS EVENING. SCAS
WILL LIKELY NEED TO BE EXTENDED THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY
NIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS DUE TO LINGERING 5+
FT SEAS.
HIGH PRESSURE FINALLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA LATER FRIDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH MUCH IMPROVED MARINE CONDITIONS. FLOW BECOME SOUTHERLY
BY LATE SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OFFSHORE AHEAD OF THE
NEXT COLD FRONT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...KMC/MAM
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...KMC/MAM
MARINE...AJB/RHR
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