351
FXUS61 KAKQ 161043
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
643 AM EDT THU OCT 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE AS MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, AS THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE, WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, COOLER AND BREEZY TODAY.
- CHILLY TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND. PATCHY FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE PIEDMONT.
THE LATEST WX ANALYSIS DEPICTS AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SPINNING
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND ATLANTIC CANADA, WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS. THE NW FLOW ALOFT IS
HELPING TO PUSH A DRY COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE LOCAL AREA, EARLY
THIS MORNING, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE (~1026MB) CENTERED OVER
THE GREAT LAKES REGION DRIFTING TO THE E-SE. THE SKY IS MAINLY
CLEAR, WITH NORTHERLY WINDS AVERAGING 5-10 MPH INLAND, WITH
10-20 MPH WINDS, GUSTING TO AROUND 25 MPH NEAR THE COAST.
TEMPERATURES ARE MILD DUE TO MIXING, RANGING THROUGH THE 50S,
WITH A FEW LOWER 60S AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE SE. WINDS
OVER THE INTERIOR WILL TEND TO DROP OFF TOWARDS SUNRISE, ALLOWING
TEMPERATURES TO FALL INTO THE MID TO UPPER 40S, WITH 50S AT THE
COAST.
FOR TODAY, THE UPPER LOW MOVES WELL SE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST AS THE UPPER RIDGE AMPLIFIES INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST. THE
SFC HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES LATER
THIS AFTN INTO THIS EVENING. BREEZY N WINDS ARE EXPECTED WITH
GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH, AND LOW DEW PTS FALLING INTO THE 30S WILL
LEAD TO MIN RH VALUES OF 30-35% ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA (WITH
SOME PLACES ALONG/W OF I-95 PERHAPS FALLING TO 25-30% FOR A FEW
HRS). STILL DOES NOT LOOK LIKE A SIGNIFICANT FIRE WX THREAT
GIVEN THE SHORTER DAYS THIS TIME OF YEAR AND WITH FUELS NOT
BEING PARTICULARLY DRY. FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES, WENT A LITTLE
ABOVE THE NBM DUE TO DEEP MIXING IN THE DRY AIRMASS, BUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL STILL BE ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES COOLER THAN
WEDNESDAY, WITH MID TO UPPER 60S WELL INLAND, AND LOWER 60S ON
THE EASTERN SHORE.
MODEL CONSENSUS SHIFTS THE SFC HIGH SSE OVERNIGHT, FROM THE
EASTERN GREAT LAKES AND UPPER OH VALLEY IN THE EVENING,
BECOMING CENTERED ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS BY 12Z FRIDAY
(STILL W OF THE CWA). THIS REMAINS SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS RUNS,
AND IS NOT AN OPTIMAL POSITION FOR A LONG NIGHT OF RADIATIONAL
COOLING AND IDEAL DECOUPLING FOR MOST OF THE CWA. DIMINISHING
WINDS ARE EXPECTED AFTER SUNSET, THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE
COAST WHERE IT WILL STAY MIXED AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT. DO ANTICIPATE
SOME PATCHY FROST IN THE FAR WESTERN ZONES FROM FARMVILLE TO
LOUISA/FLUVANNA COUNTIES WHERE CONDITIONS COULD EVENTUALLY
COMPLETELY DECOUPLE AFTER MIDNIGHT, AND ALLOW READINGS TO FALL
AS LOW AS THE MID 30S. OPTED NOT TO ISSUE A FROST ADVISORY THIS
CYCLE GIVEN ONLY PATCHY FROST DEVELOPMENT, BUT WILL MENTION
THESE AREAS IN THE HWO. ELSEWHERE, DID BLEND IN SOME OF THE
COOLER GUIDANCE FOR THE TYPICAL COOLER SPOTS ALONG AND W OF
I-95, WITH LOWS AVERAGING IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA. CLOSER TO THE COAST, WARMER WATER
TEMPERATURES AND MORE MIXING WILL KEEPS LOWS MOSTLY IN THE LOW-
MID 40S OR WARMER, WITH PLACES AT THE IMMEDIATE COAST IN THE SE
IN THE LOWER 50S.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND DRY FRIDAY/FRIDAY NIGHT, A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS AND ANOTHER DAY WITH A MAINLY SUNNY SKY. HIGHS
REMAIN COOL, GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. CLEAR FRIDAY
EVENING, THEN INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS STREAM OVER TO THE EAST OF
THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVERNIGHT. THIS WILL KEEP IT A LITTLE
WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS MAINLY 40-45F, WITH THE COOLEST
TEMPERATURES LIKELY ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC WHERE IT'LL
STAY CLEAR THROUGH THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SATURDAY, AND TURNING A LITTLE WARMER, AS THE UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY, AND OFF
THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR SOME
ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST WHERE HIGHS RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S,
WITH LOW-MID 70S WELL INLAND.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 345 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARM ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
- BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE SUNDAY, WITH
STRONG LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NNE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
LATEST 00Z/16 MODELS STILL SHOW SOME DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO
THE EVOLUTION OF THE SYSTEM, THE ECMWF BEING STRONGER AND
FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY SFC LOW
DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO THE GFS/CMC. THE ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES
REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES IN POTENTIAL RAINFALL CHANCES WITH THE
EPS BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT SHOWS ANY CHANCE FOR 0.50"+ OF
RAINFALL SUN NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY (AND EVEN THE EPS HAS TRENDED
DRIER THAN 24 HRS AGO). EITHER WAY, MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE
DAYTIME HRS SUNDAY LOOK DRY (WILL HAVE 15-25% POPS LATE IN THE
DAY ACROSS THE NW). INCREASING SOUTHERLY SLOW WILL HELP
INCREASE TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S UNDER A
PARTLY SUNNY SKY. AS NOTED ABOVE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW
MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE AREA, AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE
TILT AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN SLOPE OF THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH
MAY CAUSE THE PRECIP TO SPLIT OVER THE AREA AND/OR STRUGGLE EAST
OF THE APPALACHIANS. HAVE LIKELY POPS SUN NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
FAR NE, WITH ONLY 30-50% POPS ELSEWHERE (LOWEST IN THE SE).
BEHIND THE TROUGH, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW
NORMAL, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE, WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NE
CONUS BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 640 AM EDT THURSDAY...
DRY, WITH CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE
12Z/16 TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD (I.E. ORF), AND WILL
BECOME ELEVATED INLAND, MAINLY ~14Z UNTIL ~21Z. THE WIND
DIRECTION WILL BE NORTHERLY, PROBABLY MORE FROM THE NE AT ORF,
AND MORE FROM THE NNW AT SBY. GUSTS AS HIGH AS 20-25 KT ARE
EXPECTED. DIMINISHING WINDS HEADING INTO THIS EVENING, THOUGH
ORF WILL LIKELY CONTINUE GUSTING TO ~20 KT TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK. LIGHTER WINDS RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT WILL BRING A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT.
IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME, SO
ONLY BRIEF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, IF ANY.
DRYING OUT FOR MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 AM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLDER AND DRIER AIR FILTERS SOUTH THIS MORNING INTO EARLY FRIDAY,
BRINGING SOLID SCA CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL WATERS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY WITH
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.
1024MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER NORTHERN MI WITH LOW
PRESSURE WELL EAST OF THE ATLANTIC COAST. WINDS HAVE STRENGTHENED
BACK INTO THE 15-25 KT RANGE WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT AS THE COOLER AND
DRIER AIR BEHIND A FRONT FILTERS SOUTHWARD AND PROMOTES DEEPER
MIXING OVER THE RELATIVELY WARM LOCAL WATERS. WAVES IN THE BAY ARE 2-
4 FT WITH SEAS 5-7 FT.
EXPECT SCA CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL FOR MOST OF THE LOCAL WATERS FROM
THIS MORNING INTO FRIDAY. ONE EXCEPTION MAY BE THE UPPER RIVERS
WHERE HI-RES GUIDANCE SHOWS THE WINDS MAY NOT BE AS STRONG AS
PREVIOUSLY INDICATED. WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SCA HEADLINES IN THE
RIVERS FOR NOW. LOCAL WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO BACK OFF WITH RESPECT
TO THE POTENTIAL FOR A PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE GUSTS TONIGHT AS AN
ADDITIONAL SURGE OF COLD ADVECTION DROPS SOUTHWARD. WILL MAINTAIN 20-
25 KT WITH GUST TO 30 KT FOR THE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS. WINDS WILL
AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT FOR THE RIVERS AND CURRITUCK
SOUND. WAVES IN THE BAY BUILD TO 3-5 FT BEFORE DECREASING BACK INTO
THE 2-3 FT RANGE BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. NW WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP
SEAS OFFSHORE FROM BUILDING AS MUCH AS THE WIND SPEED WOULD SUGGEST
BUT WILL MAINTAIN 5-7 FT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. SEAS OFFSHORE ARE
FORECAST TO STAY ABOVE 5 FT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT GIVEN THE
OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION AND LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACTLY HOW FAST SEAS
WILL FALL OFF, HAVE NOT EXTENDED THE OFFSHORE SCAS ANY FURTHER WITH
THIS FORECAST CYCLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH WINDS RAPIDLY
DECREASING THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW
BECOMES SOUTHERLY EARLY SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ634-650-652-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR ANZ638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...LKB
SHORT TERM...KMC/LKB
LONG TERM...KMC/LKB
AVIATION...LKB
MARINE...RHR
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