919
FXUS61 KAKQ 170521
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
121 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY, AS
HIGH PRESSURE AS MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES.
A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, AS THE HIGH SLIDES
OFFSHORE, WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST.
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY
DRY WEATHER MONDAY THROUGH NEXT WEDNESDAY.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 720 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY TONIGHT WITH DIMINISHING WINDS INLAND. PATCHY FROST
WILL BE POSSIBLE INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING IN THE PIEDMONT.
- COOL/DRY WEATHER FOR FRIDAY.
THIS EVENING, HIGH PRESSURE (~1023 MB) WAS CENTERED OVER THE
GREAT LAKES. DRIER/COOLER AIR CONTINUES TO FILTER INTO THE AREA
WITH A BREEZY N WIND CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST. WINDS HAVE
ALREADY BEGUN TO DIMINISH INLAND. TEMPERATURES AS OF 710 PM WERE
IN THE LOW-MID 50S FOR MOST WITH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
MID 40S.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS
LATER TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY. DIMINISHING WINDS ARE EXPECTED
TONIGHT, WITH THE EXCEPTION BEING NEAR THE COAST WHERE IT WILL
STAY MIXED AND BREEZY OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
(ESPECIALLY ON ELEVATED SURFACES AND THE TYPICALLY COOLER
SPOTS) OVER OUR FAR NW/W LOCATIONS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING WHERE
WINDS ARE ABLE TO DECOUPLE. HOWEVER, GIVEN MARGINAL TEMPS AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REMAIN JUST HIGH ENOUGH (<5 KT INLAND
BUT NOT CALM) TO PREVENT PROPER DECOUPLING, OPTED AGAINST A
FROST ADVISORY. LOWS TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE MID
30S ACROSS THE NW PIEDMONT, UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MUCH
OF THE INLAND CWA AND INLAND MD EASTERN SHORE, AND UPPER 40S TO
AROUND 50 CLOSER TO THE COAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES INTO THE LOCAL AREA ON FRIDAY, BRINGING
LIGHTER WINDS AND A SUNNY SKY. HIGHS REMAIN COOL, GENERALLY IN
THE LOWER TO MID 60S.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOL AND DRY FRIDAY NIGHT, A LITTLE WARMER SATURDAY.
- WARM ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
HIGH PRESSURE BECOMES CENTERED SOUTH OF THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. IN ADDITION, THERE WILL BE AN INCREASE IN HIGH
CLOUDS FRIDAY NIGHT EAST OF AN UPPER RIDGE AXIS. THIS KEEPS
TEMPERATURES WARMER FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO
MID 40S (INLAND). THE COOLEST TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS
INTERIOR SE VA AND NE NC WHERE IT STAYS CLEAR LATER INTO THE NIGHT.
PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SATURDAY, AND TURNING A LITTLE WARMER, AS THE
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST TO THE COAST LATER IN THE DAY,
AND OFF THE COAST BY SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ENOUGH FOR
SOME ONSHORE FLOW AT THE COAST WHERE HIGHS RANGE IN THE UPPER 60S,
WITH LOW 70S INLAND. INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL HELP INCREASE
TEMPERATURES SUNDAY TO THE MID TO UPPER 70S WITH PARTLY TO MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES (INCREASING CLOUDS LATE).
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BEST CHANCE FOR RAIN IS SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY
CONDITIONS AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEXT WEEK.
A LARGE UPPER TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE W LATE SUNDAY, WITH STRONG
LOW PRESSURE EJECTING NNE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE LATEST 12Z/16
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE EVOLUTION OF
THE SYSTEM, THE ECMWF BEING STRONGER AND FARTHER SOUTH WITH THE
POTENTIAL FOR SECONDARY SURFACE LOW DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO THE
GFS/CMC. THE ASSOCIATED ENSEMBLES REFLECT THESE DIFFERENCES IN
POTENTIAL RAINFALL CHANCES WITH THE EPS BEING THE ONLY ONE THAT
SHOWS ANY CHANCE FOR 0.50"+ OF RAINFALL SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
(AND EVEN THE EPS HAS TRENDED DRIER THAN 24 HRS AGO). AS NOTED
ABOVE, THERE IS UNCERTAINTY TO HOW MUCH MOISTURE REACHES THE AREA,
AS IT TAKES ON A NEGATIVE TILT AS IT REACHES THE WESTERN SLOPE OF
THE MOUNTAINS, WHICH MAY CAUSE THE PRECIP TO SPLIT OVER THE AREA
AND/OR STRUGGLE EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS. IT IS ALSO POSSIBLE THAT
IF THE ECMWF SOLUTION IS CORRECT, WE MAY SEE A FEW GUSTY SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT AND PERHAPS EVEN A RUMBLE OF THUNDER (THOUGH
INSTABILITY IS LACKING AND THE BETTER DYNAMICS ARE FURTHER TO THE
NORTH). BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR TO A LITTLE
BELOW NORMAL, WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED MON-TUE, WITH
ANOTHER UPPER TROUGH FORECAST TO BECOME CENTERED OVER THE NE CONUS
BY MIDWEEK.
AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH THE 06Z TAF PERIOD ACROSS THE
REGION. WINDS HAVE CALMED A BIT BUT REMAIN MAINLY NW 5-10 KT
ACROSS THE AREA. GUSTING 20-25 KT AT ORF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER
SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME, SO ONLY BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, IF ANY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EDT THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COLDER AND DRIER AIR OVER THE REGION BRINGS SOLID SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY CONDITIONS TO THE LOCAL WATERS.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WITH
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
STRONG 1028MB HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS SITUATED OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION. A DRY COLD FRONT FROM A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL OFF THE NE
COAST HAS FILTERED IN DRIER, COLDER AIR. THIS HAS MIXED WELL OVER
THE WARMER WATER TEMPERATURES CAUSING ELEVATED WINDS OF 20-25 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT IN THE CHES. BAY. WINDS OVER THE RIVERS HAVE BEEN SLIGHTLY
UNDER PERFORMING WITH ONLY AN OCCASIONAL GUST TO 20 KT. HAVE DECIDED
TO LEAVE THE SCA THROUGH THIS EVENING, AS SOME OBS SHOW 20 KT GUSTS,
BUT THE ADVISORY MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY. OTHERWISE, SCA ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND LOWER JAMES RIVER
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE COASTAL WATERS EXTENDED NOW THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. WINDS WILL SLIGHTLY INCREASE LATE TONIGHT AS A SECONDARY
SURGE OF COOL AIR ADVECTS OVER THE WATERS. THE LOCAL WIND
PROBABILITIES REMAIN LOW FOR THE POTENTIAL OF GALE-FORCE GUST
TONIGHT AND HAVE MAINTAINED GUSTS TO 30 KT IN THE COASTAL WATERS AND
UPPER BAY. NW WINDS WILL THEN DECREASE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT IN THE BAY AND 15-
20 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. LIGHT WINDS 5-10 KT
SHIFTING DIRECTIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY.
WAVES AND SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 2-4 FT AND 4-7 FT, RESPECTIVELY. THEY
WILL REMAIN ELEVATED OVERNIGHT AND BEGIN TO SLOWLY DECLINE ON FRIDAY
TO 2-3 FT IN THE BAY AND 4-6 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS. SEAS OFFSHORE
ARE EXPECTED TO STAY AT OR ABOVE 5 FT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE SCA HAS BEEN EXTENDED TO 1 AM SATURDAY MORNING, BUT THERE IS
STILL A CHANCE THAT THE WAVES COULD DECLINE QUICKER THAN ANTICIPATED.
LATER THIS WEEKEND, A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTH OF THE
AREA PASSING AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS IS LIKELY AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
LOCAL WIND PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY HAVE UP TO 100% CHANCE OF GUST TO
25 KT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND 50-70% OVER THE BAY. NOT CURRENTLY
EXPECTED ANY GALE-FORCE GUSTS AS PROBS ARE LESS THAN 20% ACROSS ALL
WATERS FOR THIS TIME PERIOD. WAVES AND SEAS WILL ADDITIONALLY
INCREASE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/LKB
LONG TERM...AJB/LKB
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...KMC/RHR
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