300
FXUS61 KAKQ 171052
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
652 AM EDT FRI OCT 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY AS
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE GREAT LAKES. A
WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM
APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
SUNDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY MAINLY DRY WEATHER NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY TO START THE DAY, THEN SUNNY AND PLEASANT WITH TEMPS IN THE
60S.
1020MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NW OF THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING,
LEADING TO LIGHT/CALM WINDS IN THE PIEDMONT. NORTHERLY WINDS
CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES ACROSS
THE REGION WITH TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 30S AND LOW 40S BY
SUNRISE. MAINTAINED THE MENTION OF PATCHY FROST OVER THE
PIEDMONT WHERE SOME MID 30S ARE FORECAST BEFORE SUNRISE.
ANOTHER DAY OF BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES IS EXPECTED TODAY
DESPITE THE FULL SUNSHINE. HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM
THE MID AND UPPER 60S INLAND TO THE LOW 60S FOR THE EASTERN
SHORE AND IMMEDIATE COAST. NOT AS COOL TONIGHT AS SOME MID AND
HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE MOVES INTO THE REGION WITH INCREASING
CLOUDS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 40S ACROSS THE AREA WITH RELATIVE
WARMER LOWS ACROSS THE WEST AND SLIGHTLY COOLER EAST WHERE
CLOUDS WILL HAVE THE LEAST EFFECT ON RADIATION COOLING
POTENTIAL.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- WARMER SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DROPS SE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
- A COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUNDAY AND CROSSES THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT, BRINGING INCREASING CLOUDS, GUSTY SW WINDS, AND A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS.
PARTLY SUNNY AND WARMER SATURDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA WHILE MID TO UPPER 60S HANG ON ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S OR SE ON SATURDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE
TRANSLATES TO THE SOUTH AND EAST. DRY AND MILD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS ONLY FALLING INTO THE 50S.
S AND SW WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. WINDS GUST 25-30MPH INLAND AND UP
TO 35MPH NEAR THE COAST. WE WARM WELL ABOVE SEASONAL NORMS
SUNDAY WITH HIGHS WELL INTO THE 70S ACROSS THE AREA. 00Z
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO DIFFER REGARDING THE STRENGTH AND
PLACEMENT OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE FRONT WITH THE ECMWF
REMAINING THE MOST AMPLIFIED/FARTHER SOUTH VS THE GFS/CMC. WILL
SHOW CHANCE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE PIEDMONT PRIOR TO SUNSET BUT
THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS WILL ARRIVE SUNDAY EVENING INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. MODELS DO AGREE THAT COVERAGE OF SHOWERS WILL
BE HIGHER ACROSS THE N AND NW PORTIONS OF AREA WITH LESSER
COVERAGE AND QPF ACROSS THE SE. ENSEMBLES SHOW RATHER MEAGER QPF
WITH VERY LOW/ZERO PROBABILITIES OF SEEING MORE THAN 0.5", EVEN
FROM THE MORE BULLISH EPS. FORECAST EVENT TOTAL QPF IS
GENERALLY 0.2" OR LESS. SOME SHOWERS MAY LINGER NEAR THE COAST
TOWARD SUNRISE WITH LOW TEMPS IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOW 50S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER MONDAY WITH ANOTHER COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO CROSS THE
REGION LATE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH VERY LIMITED
MOISTURE.
DECREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION ON
MONDAY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. HIGHS WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER
60S WITH FULL SUNSHINE EXPECTED. REMAINING DRY MONDAY NIGHT WITH
LOWS FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S. WARMER TUESDAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
FRONT WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE LOW 70S. BLENDED GUIDANCE IS NOT
EXCITED ABOUT THE CHANCE FOR ANY APPRECIABLE RAINFALL WITH THIS
FRONT. STAYING DRY AND SEASONABLE MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S WITH LOWS IN THE 40S.
AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 650 AM EDT FRIDAY...
CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE 12Z TAF PERIOD WITH SCT
TO BKN MID LEVEL CLOUDS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT.
WINDS REMAIN NW 5-10 KT ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. GUSTING TO 20-25
KT AT ORF WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER SUNSET.
OUTLOOK: VFR AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY.
S/SW WINDS INCREASE ON SUNDAY TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS 20-25 KT
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING A
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS, MAINLY SUNDAY NIGHT. IT DOES NOT APPEAR TO
BE A SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT AT THIS TIME, SO ONLY BRIEF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS ARE ANTICIPATED, IF ANY. DRY WEATHER RETURNS
MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 245 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS TODAY.
- HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH
IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE LIKELY SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH THE NEXT
FRONTAL PASSAGE.
COOL HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED FROM THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TO
SOUTHERN QUEBEC EARLY THIS MORNING, WITH LOW PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE
OF THE NE CONUS COAST. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE FEATURES
COMBINED WITH DECENT CAA FOLLOWING A COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS
RESULTING IN N WINDS OF 20-25 KT WITH FREQUENT GUSTS OF ~30 KT ON
THE BAY/OCEAN. A FEW GUSTS TO 35 KT HAVE BEEN OBSERVED AT ELEVATED
SITES DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. SEAS ARE 5-7 FT, WITH 3-5 FT WAVES
ON THE BAY. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY, OCEAN, LOWER JAMES
RIVER, AND CURRITUCK SOUND. N-NNW WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TODAY AS
THE HIGH BUILDS TOWARD THE WATERS, WITH SPEEDS OF ONLY 10-15 KT
EXPECTED BY EARLY EVENING. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH 10 AM FOR THE
LOWER JAMES, 4 PM FOR MOST OF THE BAY AND CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THIS
EVENING/TONIGHT FOR THE MOUTH OF THE BAY/OCEAN (DUE TO LINGERING
ELEVATED SEAS/WAVES). THE HIGH SETTLES OVER THE AREA TONIGHT BEFORE
MOVING JUST TO THE SE OF THE WATERS ON SATURDAY. LIGHT/VARIABLE
WINDS ARE EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT-SAT BEFORE SHIFTING TO THE S-SE
AND INCREASING TO 10-15 KT BY LATE SAT NIGHT/EARLY SUN AM.
LATER THIS WEEKEND, A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK JUST
TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA...WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT QUICKLY
CROSSING THE LOCAL WATERS SUNDAY NIGHT-EARLY MONDAY AM. SCA
CONDITIONS ARE VERY LIKELY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE TO 15-20 KT BY SUN AFTN BEFORE INCREASING
TO 20-25 KT (WITH GUSTS OF 25-30 KT) BY SUN EVENING. OUR LOCAL WIND
PROBS INDICATE THE POTENTIAL FOR 35 KT GUSTS SUN EVENING FOR A FEW
HOURS RIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
(PROBS OF 34 KT GUSTS BRIEFLY INCREASE TO 30-60%). HOWEVER, WILL
NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE AND OUR LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE A TENDENCY TO
OVERESTIMATE THE FREQUENCY OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IN SOUTHERLY WIND/WAA
REGIMES. NEVERTHELESS, WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS POTENTIAL. IN
ADDITION, SMWS MAY BE NEEDED FOR GUSTY SHOWERS THAT COULD ACCOMPANY
THE FROPA SUN NIGHT. WINDS QUICKLY SHIFT TO THE WEST SUNDAY NIGHT
FOLLOWING THE FROPA WITH WESTERLY WINDS OF 20-25 KT EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY AS THE LOW QUICKLY EXITS TO OUR
NE. SUB-SCA WINDS ARE EXPECTED MON NIGHT-TUE AM BEFORE ANOTHER ROUND
OF SCAS IS POSSIBLE LATE TUE-WED AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO
APPROACH AND CROSS THE WATERS.
WAVES AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO SUBSIDE TO 2-3 FT IN THE BAY AND 4-6
FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS TODAY. SEAS OFFSHORE ARE EXPECTED TO STAY
AT OR ABOVE 5 FT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. SEAS OF 3-4 FT (WITH 1-
3 FT WAVES) ARE EXPECTED FROM SAT-SUN AM BEFORE BUILDING BACK TO 5-7
FT SUN EVENING/NIGHT. WAVES BUILD TO 3-4 FT ON THE BAY DURING THIS
TIME.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
WATER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE IN THE UPPER BAY STARTING ON
SATURDAY BUT ESPECIALLY SATURDAY NIGHT-SUNDAY (DUE TO THE
INCREASING SOUTH WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT). MINOR TIDAL FLOODING
IS LIKELY DURING THIS TIME FROM WINDMILL POINT NORTHWARD, WITH
LOCALIZED MODERATE FLOODING POSSIBLE ON THE BAY SIDE OF THE MD
EASTERN SHORE. THE BEST CHANCE FOR MODERATE FLOODING IS DURING
THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT AS WINDS BECOME SW
THEN W BEHIND THE FRONT. WATER LEVELS GRADUALLY FALL EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...ERI
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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