098
FXUS61 KAKQ 310955
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
555 AM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
BREEZY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY BEHIND AN DEEPENING
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER NEW ENGLAND. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS
WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A WEAK COASTAL LOW
MAY BRING RAIN TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. OTHERWISE, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BREEZY TODAY WITH WESTERLY WINDS GUSTING TO 25-30 MPH INLAND
AND 30-35 MPH ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
- CHILLY TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S W TO LOW-MID 40S E.
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
TEMPS AS OF 130 AM RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
AREA WITH MOST LOCATIONS IN THE LOWER 50S. MAINLY CLEAR SKIES
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT APART FROM A FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW AND N PORTIONS OF THE FA INTO EARLY
THIS MORNING. WINDS REMAIN W 5-10 MPH INTO THIS MORNING, KEEPING
TEMPS FROM DECOUPLING AND ALLOWING. AS SUCH, HAVE RAISED
MORNING LOWS A BIT AND NOW HAVE LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S ACROSS
THE FA WITH LOWS AROUND 50F ALONG THE COAST.
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DEEPEN AS IT LIFTS NE ACROSS
NEW ENGLAND TODAY. STRONG CAA AND A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT BEHIND
THE LOW WILL ALLOW FOR A BREEZY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH W WINDS OF
15-20 MPH AND GUSTS TO 25-30 MPH INLAND AND 30-35 MPH ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE. OTHERWISE, MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED WITH HIGHS
IN THE LOW-MID 60S. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT,
ALLOWING FOR THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AND WINDS TO QUICKLY
DIMINISH AFTER SUNSET. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
E/NE PORTIONS OF THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM DECOUPLING
AS MUCH AS INLAND AREAS. AS SUCH, HAVE LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 40S
ACROSS E/NE PORTIONS OF THE FA WITH LOWS IN THE MID 30S POSSIBLE
ACROSS INLAND AREAS MAINLY ALONG AND W OF I-95 AS WELL AS FAR INLAND
PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC. GIVEN LOWS NEAR 36F, PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL VA AND W PORTIONS OF NE NC. HOWEVER, GIVEN
THE VERY MARGINAL TEMPS AND LOW CONFIDENCE DUE TO THE POTENTIAL
FOR SOME LIGHT WINDS KEEPING TEMPS FROM PROPERLY DECOUPLING,
HAVE DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON ANY FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA
AND NE NC. FROST ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED FOR A PORTION OF THE
AREA.
- CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
ALOFT, A TROUGH MOVES INTO THE MS VALLEY AND INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHEAST THIS WEEKEND. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION THIS WEEKEND WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED ON SAT
AND INCREASING CLOUDS ON SUN. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED BOTH DAYS.
HIGHS REMAIN NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL BOTH DAYS WITH TEMPS IN
THE LOW-MID 60S (MOST AREAS IN THE MID 60S). GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE
OVERHEAD, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER COMPARED TO TODAY.
ADDITIONALLY, GIVEN CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SAT NIGHT,
TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S LIKELY INLAND. THE COOLEST AREA LOOKS TO BE INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC WHERE LOWS IN THE LOW-MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE.
AS SUCH, AREAS OF FROST ARE POSSIBLE IN THIS REGION WITH PATCHY
FROST ELSEWHERE. WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
RESPECT TO TEMPS GIVEN THE INCREASING CLOUD COVER FROM W TO E
OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING. IF CLOUDS MOVE IN FASTER, TEMPS MAY
TREND WARMER AND VICE VERSA. ADDITIONALLY, NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HAS
LOWS AROUND FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD COVER
AND LACK OF OTHER MODEL SUPPORT FOR THESE TEMPS) FOR A FREEZE WATCH,
CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND FREEZING SUN
MORNING. IN ANY CASE, A FROST ADVISORY WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR A
PORTION OF THE AREA WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- RAIN IS POSSIBLE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS MAINLY
SE VA AND NE NC AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS OFFSHORE.
- A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
ALOFT, A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THIS
HELPS FORM A WEAK SURFACE LOW OFFSHORE. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS
REGARDING THE EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE LOW WHICH WILL HAVE IMPACTS ON
THE RAIN CHANCES FOR THE LOCAL AREA. THE 00Z EURO/EPS HAVE INCREASED
RAINFALL AMOUNTS CONSIDERABLY WITH THE EPS NOW SHOWING 0.5-1" OF
RAIN ACROSS FAR SE VA/NE NC WHEREAS THE GEFS SHOWS ONLY 0.15-0.4".
HOWEVER, THE GENERAL CONSENSUS AND TREND HAS BEEN FOR INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES SUN NIGHT INTO MON. THE NBM POPS HAVE INCREASED TO 25-
45% ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WITH ~15-20% POPS FARTHER INLAND. RAIN
CHANCES DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY MON WITH MOST INLAND AREAS LIKELY
DRY DURING MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY MON
EVENING AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
AFTER MON, THE GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS A TROUGH ACROSS NEW
ENGLAND AND A RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SURFACE OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL WARMING
TREND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 60S MON (GREATEST UNCERTAINTY GIVEN
THE COASTAL LOW), WARMING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S BY THU. A COLD
FRONT THU ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS ON FRI WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S
N TO LOWER 60S S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE COOLEST NIGHT
LOOKING LIKE TUE NIGHT/WED MORNING WHEN TEMPS IN THE MID-UPPER 30S
ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /09Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. OTHER THAN A
FEW MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS FAR NORTHWESTERN AND NORTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE FA THIS MORNING (INCLUDING AT SBY), GENERALLY
CLEAR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL. WINDS REMAIN W AT ~10
KT BEFORE SUNRISE, INCREASING TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT
AT SBY AROUND 12Z FRI. GUSTY W WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AT ALL
TERMINALS BY LATE THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
WINDS INCREASING TO 15-20 KT WITH GUSTS 25-30 KT (HIGHEST SBY).
WINDS DIMINISH QUICKLY BY SUNSET TO 5-10 KT WITH LIGHT WINDS
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE MAY TRACK S OF THE REGION MONDAY, BUT
UNCERTAINTY IS HIGH SURROUNDING ANY PRECIP OR POTENTIAL FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD BRING VFR TUESDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF WACHAPREAGUE. FARTHER SOUTH, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH MORE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS DEEPENING ~988MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING, AND IS NOW
WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~30 KT OFFSHORE. SEAS WERE 4-6 FT, WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
BAY AND LOCAL RIVERS/CURRITUCK SOUND. SOME 8-9 FT SEAS WERE OBSERVED
AT BUOY 14 WELL OFFSHORE OF VA BEACH, AND AS SWELL FROM DISTANT
MELISSA LIFTS CLOSER OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST, EXPECT SEAS RAMP UP
A BIT LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS HAVE NECESSITATED SOME HEADLINE
CHANGES, MAINLY DUE TO THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. THE
SUBSEQUENT DELAY IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION.
WIND PROBS FOR GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS TO ~34 KT NOW UNDER 20% SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES
AND <10% FOR THE LOWER BAY. GIVEN SLOWER TIGHTENING OF THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECT W WINDS TO RAMP UP MORE GRADUALLY LATER
THIS MORNING, REMAINING GUSTY OUT OF THE W-SW THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE RAMPING DOWN GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT,
HAVE CUT BACK GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF
WINDMILL POINT TO WACHAPREAGUE. STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF
REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE UPPER BAY, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
STILL ~20-30% NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT, AND WORTH MAINTAINING AN
ADMITTEDLY MARGINAL GALE FOR NOW. ON THE COASTAL WATERS SIDE,
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER CA/TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO 30-35 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, AND THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF
WACHAPREAGUE. FARTHER SOUTH, WHILE A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OUT TOWARD 20NM AND BEYOND, PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SCA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY, WESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT WL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING FURTHER.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W-SW. WINDS
TURN E-NE LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WEAK (DRY) FRONTAL PASSAGE CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT, TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION.
WAVES 2-4 FT TODAY. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-8 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THANKS TO INCREASINGLY ENERGETIC E-SE SWELL FROM MELISSA,
WHICH WILL SLIDE BY WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES EAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 555 AM EDT FRIDAY...
TIDAL ANOMALIES OF ~2FT IN THE UPPER BAY ALLOWED FOR ANOTHER
CYCLE OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY MAJOR TIDAL FLOODING IN THE TIDAL
LOWER POTOMAC RIVER OVER TO THE BAY SIDE OF THE MARYLAND LOWER
EASTERN SHORE. FARTHER SOUTH, LINGERING POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALIES ~1 FT BROUGHT ANOTHER ROUND OF COASTAL FLOODING
FOR COMMUNITIES ALONG THE TIDAL RIVERS AND THE VA EASTERN
SHORE.
WINDS REMAIN GUSTY 15-20KT (GUSTS TO 25-30 KT) OUT OF THE W-SW
TODAY, ALLOWING FOR A STRONG EBB TIDE/DIMINISHING ANOMALIES, AS
WATER DRAINS OUT OF THE CHES BAY. WHILE THIS WILL RESULT IN
DECREASING TIDAL ANOMALIES AND SUBSEQUENT DECREASING WATER
LEVELS, ANOTHER CYCLE WITH TIDAL LEVELS REACHING MINOR COASTAL
FLOOD THRESHOLDS IS EXPECTED OVER THE TIDAL POTOMAC AND
RAPPAHANNOCK RIVERS. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS ALSO EXPECTED
ONCE AGAIN TODAY, AS W WINDS PUSH WATER INTO THE BAY SIDE OF
THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE DURING THE HIGH TIDE CYCLE LATE THIS
MORNING AND THIS AFTERNOON. COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE NOW IN
EFFECT FOR THESE AREAS FOR THE UPCOMING TIDAL CYCLE. THEREAFTER,
WHILE SOME NUISANCE TIDAL FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN SPOTS
THIS EVENING, EXPECT TIDAL LEVELS TO GRADUALLY EASE THROUGH
THE UPCOMING WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
MDZ021>023.
NC...NONE.
VA...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ075>078-085-086-521-522.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ631-632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...KMC/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page