442
FXUS61 KAKQ 311850
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
250 PM EDT FRI OCT 31 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING RAIN
TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VA
INTO NORTHEAST NC WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL ACTIVE.
PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.
- DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
THIS AFTERNOON, ~975 MB LOW PRESSURE (WHICH IMPACTED THE AREA
YESTERDAY) IS NOW CENTERED OVER EASTERN PORTIONS OF QUEBEC. HIGH
PRESSURE IS GRADUALLY BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. DUE TO THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS, IT STILL REMAINS
BREEZY OVER THE AREA WITH W TO WSW WINDS GUSTING TO 25 TO 35
MPH. SKIES ARE SUNNY WITH TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AND WINDS TO DIMINISH AFTER
SUNSET. MAINLY LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS E/NE
PORTIONS OF THE FA WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM DECOUPLING
AS MUCH AS AREAS FURTHER SW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE
MID TO UPPER 30S FOR MANY INLAND AREAS WITH 40S NEAR THE
COAST/URBAN AREAS. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PORTIONS
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHEAST NC LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS AREA HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE WINDS
DECOUPLE/MORE WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION. PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE
RULED OUT FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, BUT A CONTINUED LIGHT BREEZE
SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT A LITTLE MORE LIMITED.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S. LESS WIND IS ANTICIPATED TOMORROW
COMPARED TO TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN THE AREA.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA AND
NE NC. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
- CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS
MAINLY SE VA AND NE NC AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO CALM
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND. THE COOLEST AREA LOOKS TO BE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SE VA/NE NC WHERE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE. FROST
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MANY INLAND AREAS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF CLOUDS MOVE IN FASTER, TEMPS MAY TREND WARMER AND
VICE VERSA. ADDITIONALLY, NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HAS LOWS AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF OTHER MODEL SUPPORT FOR THESE TEMPS) FOR A
FREEZE WATCH, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND
FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.
REMAINING MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S, WITH SOME
MID 60S ACROSS THE SE. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, STILL HELPING TO FORM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE SE HALF
OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
ECMWF/EPS REMAINS STEADY WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SHOWING 0.5-1"+
ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS HAS ALSO INCREASED QPF
AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. RAIN COMES TO
AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUNSHINE POTENTIALLY RETURNING
LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS A TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. A (DRY) COLD
FRONT THURSDAY ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S N TO LOWER 60S S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE
COOLEST NIGHTS LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPS IN THE MID- UPPER 30S
ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EDT FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE 18Z/31 TAF PERIOD. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA. BREEZY W TO WSW
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON DIMINISH THIS EVENING, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
W WINDS TONIGHT INTO TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
THE WEEKEND. A WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY TRACK OFFSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY, POTENTIALLY BRINGING SOME LIGHT RAIN AND FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TO SE VA/NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING
VFR TUESDAY ONWARD.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS GO INTO EFFECT BEFORE SUNRISE THIS MORNING FOR THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT, AND FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
NORTH OF WACHAPREAGUE. FARTHER SOUTH, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE NOW
IN EFFECT FOR THE REST OF THE WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT/EARLY SATURDAY.
- WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, WITH MORE
BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS RETURNING TO THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS DEEPENING ~988MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND EARLY THIS MORNING. THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD
FRONT SWEPT ACROSS THE WATERS EARLY YESTERDAY EVENING, AND IS NOW
WELL OFFSHORE. WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS AVERAGE 15-20 KT WITH
GUSTS TO ~30 KT OFFSHORE. SEAS WERE 4-6 FT, WITH WAVES 1-2 FT ON THE
BAY AND LOCAL RIVERS/CURRITUCK SOUND. SOME 8-9 FT SEAS WERE OBSERVED
AT BUOY 14 WELL OFFSHORE OF VA BEACH, AND AS SWELL FROM DISTANT
MELISSA LIFTS CLOSER OFFSHORE OF THE EAST COAST, EXPECT SEAS RAMP UP
A BIT LATER THIS MORNING INTO TONIGHT.
MODEL TRENDS AND CURRENT OBS HAVE NECESSITATED SOME HEADLINE
CHANGES, MAINLY DUE TO THE SLOWER THAN EXPECTED DEEPENING OF THE
SURFACE LOW LIFTING ACROSS NEW ENGLAND INTO ATLANTIC CANADA. THE
SUBSEQUENT DELAY IN THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL RESULT IN
WINDS LIKELY REMAINING BELOW GALE FORCE ACROSS MUCH OF OUR REGION.
WIND PROBS FOR GALE FORCE WINDS HAVE DROPPED OFF SUBSTANTIALLY, WITH
PROBABILITY FOR GUSTS TO ~34 KT NOW UNDER 20% SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES
AND <10% FOR THE LOWER BAY. GIVEN SLOWER TIGHTENING OF THE SFC
PRESSURE GRADIENT, EXPECT W WINDS TO RAMP UP MORE GRADUALLY LATER
THIS MORNING, REMAINING GUSTY OUT OF THE W-SW THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON, BEFORE RAMPING DOWN GRADUALLY THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT,
HAVE CUT BACK GALE WARNINGS TO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES SOUTH OF
WINDMILL POINT TO WACHAPREAGUE. STILL NOT OVERLY CONFIDENT OF
REACHING GALE FORCE WINDS IN THE UPPER BAY, BUT PROBABILITIES ARE
STILL ~20-30% NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT, AND WORTH MAINTAINING AN
ADMITTEDLY MARGINAL GALE FOR NOW. ON THE COASTAL WATERS SIDE,
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO THE BETTER CA/TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RESULT IN GUSTS TO 30-35 KT OVER THE
NORTHERN WATERS, AND THE GALE WARNING REMAINS IN PLACE NORTH OF
WACHAPREAGUE. FARTHER SOUTH, WHILE A FEW INFREQUENT GUSTS TO GALE
FORCE ARE POSSIBLE OUT TOWARD 20NM AND BEYOND, PREDOMINATE
CONDITIONS WILL BE SCA THROUGH THIS EVENING. BY SATURDAY, WESTERLY
WINDS CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH, THOUGH SOME GUSTS TO 20 KT WL
REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE SUBSIDING FURTHER.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE W-SW. WINDS
TURN E-NE LATE SUN INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS THE HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES
OFFSHORE. WEAK (DRY) FRONTAL PASSAGE CROSSES THE REGION MONDAY
NIGHT, TURNING WINDS AROUND TO THE W-NW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. A
BRIEF PERIOD OF SCA WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY,
BEFORE DIMINISHING AGAIN AS COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE
REGION.
WAVES 2-4 FT TODAY. SEAS INCREASE TO 5-8 FT THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT, THANKS TO INCREASINGLY ENERGETIC E-SE SWELL FROM MELISSA,
WHICH WILL SLIDE BY WELL OFFSHORE TO OUR NORTHEAST THROUGH TONIGHT.
SEAS GRADUALLY SUBSIDE LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY, AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES EAST OF ATLANTIC CANADA BY SATURDAY MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR NCZ012-013-
030.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR VAZ065-079-
080-087-088-092.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR ANZ631-632-
634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ633-
638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR
ANZ635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR ANZ654-656-
658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/RMM
LONG TERM...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...KMC/MAM
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