439
FXUS61 KAKQ 010519
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
119 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING RAIN
TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHEAST NC WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL
ACTIVE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST.
- DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS E/NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM DECOUPLING AS MUCH AS AREAS
FURTHER SW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MANY INLAND AREAS WITH 40S NEAR THE COAST/URBAN
AREAS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SHORE. WILL NOTE THAT TEMPS AS OF 1
AM RANGED FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS TO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST, WHICH LEADS TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION. HOWEVER, WINDS
MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS
POTENTIALLY STILL DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR SOME AREAS. AS
SUCH, A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHEAST NC INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE WINDS DECOUPLE/MORE WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION. PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST, BUT A CONTINUED LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S. WHILE MUCH LESS WIND IS
ANTICIPATED SAT COMPARED TO FRI, FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT
A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH, HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO THE
MID 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S. ADDITIONALLY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH MIN RH OF
~35% INLAND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA AND
NE NC. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
- CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS
MAINLY SE VA AND NE NC AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO CALM
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND. THE COOLEST AREA LOOKS TO BE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SE VA/NE NC WHERE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE. FROST
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MANY INLAND AREAS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF CLOUDS MOVE IN FASTER, TEMPS MAY TREND WARMER AND
VICE VERSA. ADDITIONALLY, NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HAS LOWS AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF OTHER MODEL SUPPORT FOR THESE TEMPS) FOR A
FREEZE WATCH, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND
FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.
REMAINING MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S, WITH SOME
MID 60S ACROSS THE SE. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, STILL HELPING TO FORM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE SE HALF
OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
ECMWF/EPS REMAINS STEADY WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SHOWING 0.5-1"+
ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS HAS ALSO INCREASED QPF
AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. RAIN COMES TO
AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUNSHINE POTENTIALLY RETURNING
LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS A TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. A (DRY) COLD
FRONT THURSDAY ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S N TO LOWER 60S S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE
COOLEST NIGHTS LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPS IN THE MID- UPPER 30S
ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. CLEAR/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SAT OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW. HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILD E OVERNIGHT SAT
NIGHT. W WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 5-8 KT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO ~5
KT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING, REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE BECOMING CALM SAT NIGHT GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE
EXCEPTION IS SBY WHERE W WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN AT SBY, WINDS BECOME
CALM SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILD SUN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL LOW. A WEAK COASTAL LOW LIKELY
TRACKS OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT INTO MON, BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT ONWARD.
MARINE
AS OF 600 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN CANCELLED FOR THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN
ZONES. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT TONIGHT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS.
- BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
- ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF
THE COAST EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
CONVERTED THE GALE WARNINGS TO SCAS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND...AS WINDS CONTINUE TO ONLY GUST TO 25-30 KT.
SCAS RUN THROUGH 10Z/6 AM SATURDAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
AFTERNOON WEATHER ANALYSIS SHOWS A STRONG 978MB LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
OVER NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND BORDERING CANADA. ACROSS OUR AREA THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS QUITE STRONG CAUSING WINDS TO REMAIN
BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 30 KT OUT OF THE WEST. THE
GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN BAY ZONE HAS BEEN ABLE TO BE DROPPED
AND REPLACED WITH A SCA AS WINDS ARE REMAINING BELOW GALE CRITERIA.
HOWEVER, ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN ZONES, GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH 1AM AS THERE ARE STILL SOME FREQUENT GUSTS UPWARDS OF
35 KT. HOWEVER, THE GALE WARNING MAYBE CANCELED EARLY IF THE WINDS
START TO DECREASE. IF THE GALE WARNING IS CANCELED EARLY IT WILL
MOST LIKELY BE REPLACED WITH AN SCA. ELSEWHERE, SCAS REMAIN IN
EFFECT. SEAS THIS AFTERNOON ARE BETWEEN 2 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND
4 TO 7 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN.
BY THIS EVENING WINDS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
WEAKENS SLIGHTLY OVER THE AREA. BY 7PM THE SCA FOR THE RIVERS WILL
BE ABLE TO BE DROPPED. WHILE ELSEWHERE WINDS WILL REMAIN
BETWEEN 15 TO 20 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF 25 KT. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING OF SATURDAY.
BY MID MORNING SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE WILL START TO MOVE OVER
THE AREA IMPROVING MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS ALL WATERS. WINDS IN
THE MID MORNING WILL BE BETWEEN 10 TO 15 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS
OF 20 KT OUT OF THE WEST. THEN BY THE AFTERNOON WINDS DECREASE
OUT OF THE WEST TO 5 TO 10 KT ACROSS ALL WATERS. WAVES WILL BE
BETWEEN 1 TO 2 FT ACROSS THE BAY AND 3 TO 4 FT ACROSS THE OCEAN.
THESE MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING MORE NE BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. BY MONDAY RECENT MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS CONTINUED TO HINT AT AN ADDITIONAL COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM FORMING JUST SOUTH OF THE WATERS. THIS POTENTIAL
COASTAL LOW WILL POTENTIALLY BRING SCA CRITERIA BACK ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE WATERS MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THEN POTENTIALLY
MIDDLE TO LATE NEXT WEEK MULTIPLE FRONTS MAY PASS ACROSS THE
AREA BRINGING ADDITIONAL CHANCES OF ELEVATED MARINE CONDITIONS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012-013-030.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ065-079-080-
087-088-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB/AC/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/RMM
LONG TERM...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI/HET
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