330
FXUS61 KAKQ 010600
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TONIGHT THROUGH THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED. A WEAK COASTAL LOW MAY BRING RAIN
TO SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
OTHERWISE, NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY
DRY CONDITIONS RETURN AND CONTINUE INTO MIDWEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/
AS OF 110 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHEAST NC WHERE THE GROWING SEASON IS STILL
ACTIVE. PATCHY FROST IS POSSIBLE FOR AREAS FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST.
- DRY AND SUNNY CONDITIONS CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY WITH HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING BACK INTO THE AREA.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE SW TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TO SLACKEN AND WINDS TO DIMINISH. MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS E/NE PORTIONS OF THE FA
WHICH WILL LIKELY KEEP TEMPS FROM DECOUPLING AS MUCH AS AREAS
FURTHER SW. LOWS TONIGHT WILL LIKELY RANGE FROM THE MID TO
UPPER 30S FOR MANY INLAND AREAS WITH 40S NEAR THE COAST/URBAN
AREAS AS WELL AS THE EASTERN SHORE. WILL NOTE THAT TEMPS AS OF 1
AM RANGED FROM THE MID 40S ACROSS MOST INLAND AREAS TO THE UPPER
40S TO LOWER 50S ALONG THE COAST AND ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE.
THIS IS A BIT HIGHER THAN ORIGINALLY FORECAST, WHICH LEADS TO
LOWER CONFIDENCE IN WIDESPREAD FROST FORMATION. HOWEVER, WINDS
MAY DECOUPLE DURING THE LAST FEW HOURS OF THE NIGHT WITH TEMPS
POTENTIALLY STILL DROPPING INTO THE MID 30S FOR SOME AREAS. AS
SUCH, A FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH-
CENTRAL VA INTO NORTHEAST NC INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS AREA
HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE WINDS DECOUPLE/MORE WIDESPREAD FROST
FORMATION. PATCHY FROST CANNOT BE RULED OUT FURTHER NORTH AND
EAST, BUT A CONTINUED LIGHT BREEZE SHOULD KEEP THE THREAT A
LITTLE MORE LIMITED.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA TOMORROW WITH
MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE MID 60S. WHILE MUCH LESS WIND IS
ANTICIPATED SAT COMPARED TO FRI, FORECAST SOUNDINGS STILL DEPICT
A WELL MIXED ENVIRONMENT. AS SUCH, HAVE RAISED HIGHS INTO THE
MID 60S WITH A FEW LOCATIONS POTENTIALLY MAKING IT INTO THE
UPPER 60S. ADDITIONALLY, DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH MIN RH OF
~35% INLAND.
SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- CHILLY SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOWS IN THE
MID-UPPER 30S INLAND AND LOW-MID 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE VA AND
NE NC. ADDITIONAL FROST ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED.
- CLOUDS INCREASE SUNDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS LIKELY THROUGH
SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
- RAIN CHANCES INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY ACROSS
MAINLY SE VA AND NE NC AS A WEAK COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS
OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY NIGHT LEADING TO CALM
WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
DECOUPLE QUICKLY WITH WIDESPREAD READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND. THE COOLEST AREA LOOKS TO BE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF
SE VA/NE NC WHERE LOWS IN THE LOW TO MID 30S ARE POSSIBLE. FROST
IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR MANY INLAND AREAS WHERE THE
GROWING SEASON CONTINUES. WILL NOTE THAT THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO TEMPS GIVEN THE POTENTIAL FOR
INCREASING HIGH CLOUD COVER FROM W TO E OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY
MORNING. IF CLOUDS MOVE IN FASTER, TEMPS MAY TREND WARMER AND
VICE VERSA. ADDITIONALLY, NBM 25TH PERCENTILE HAS LOWS AROUND
FREEZING ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. WHILE
CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH (GIVEN UNCERTAINTY WITH CLOUD
COVER AND LACK OF OTHER MODEL SUPPORT FOR THESE TEMPS) FOR A
FREEZE WATCH, CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW LOCATIONS REACHING AROUND
FREEZING SUNDAY MORNING.
REMAINING MAINLY DRY DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS OF SUNDAY, BUT WE
WILL SEE INCREASING CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM.
TEMPERATURES WILL AGAIN GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER 60S, WITH SOME
MID 60S ACROSS THE SE. A TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY, STILL HELPING TO FORM WEAK LOW
PRESSURE OFFSHORE. MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON, WITH LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN OVERSPREADING THE SE HALF
OF THE AREA LATER SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. THE 12Z
ECMWF/EPS REMAINS STEADY WITH QPF AMOUNTS, SHOWING 0.5-1"+
ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. THE 12Z GFS/GEFS HAS ALSO INCREASED QPF
AMOUNTS COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF RUNS. RAIN COMES TO
AN END MONDAY AFTERNOON, WITH SUNSHINE POTENTIALLY RETURNING
LATER IN THE DAY. HIGHS ON MONDAY WILL GENERALLY BE IN THE LOWER
60S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EDT FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES EXPECTED.
BY MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD, THE
GENERAL SYNOPTIC PATTERN IS A TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND A
RIDGE ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE
OVER THE REGION. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A GENERAL WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS CLIMBING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S BY WEDNESDAY. A (DRY) COLD
FRONT THURSDAY ALLOWS FOR COOLER TEMPS ON FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 50S N TO LOWER 60S S. LOWS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL WITH THE
COOLEST NIGHTS LOOKING LIKE TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING AND
THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY MORNING WHEN TEMPS IN THE MID- UPPER 30S
ARE POSSIBLE.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 120 AM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 6Z TAF PERIOD. CLEAR/MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY SAT OUTSIDE OF A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS ACROSS THE NW. HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILD E OVERNIGHT SAT
NIGHT. W WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO 5-8 KT ACROSS MOST TERMINALS
EARLY TONIGHT. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DIMINISH TO ~5
KT OVERNIGHT INTO SAT MORNING, REMAINING LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY
BEFORE BECOMING CALM SAT NIGHT GIVEN HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. THE
EXCEPTION IS SBY WHERE W WINDS INCREASE TO 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 KT SAT AFTERNOON. HOWEVER, EVEN AT SBY, WINDS BECOME
CALM SAT NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILD SUN AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING TROUGH
AND DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL LOW. A WEAK COASTAL LOW LIKELY
TRACKS OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT INTO MON, BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO
OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN AND FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA.
THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS ACROSS SE VA/NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS MON NIGHT ONWARD.
MARINE
AS OF 200 AM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS RETURN TO THE LOCAL WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS OVERHEAD FROM THE WEST.
- ANOTHER POTENTIAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO FORM OFF
THE COAST MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
EVENING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS DEEPENING 972MB SFC LOW PRESSURE NOW
OVER ATLANTIC CANADA. 1022+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SW OF THE
WATERS WILL SLOWLY BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS THROUGH THIS
EVENING. WINDS ARE STILL 15-20 KT EARLY THIS MORNING OVER THE
LOWER AND MIDDLE BAY, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE ATLANTIC COASTAL
WATERS, 10-15 KT OVER THE EASTERN VA RIVERS. WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
AND GRADIENT SLACKENS FURTHER. EXPECT SCAS WILL BE LOWERED ON
TIME AT 4AM OVER THE BAY AND BY 7 AM OVER THE COASTAL WATERS
(PERHAPS TAKING A BIT LONGER OVER NORTHERN WATERS MAINLY DUE TO
LINGERING SWELL.
WEST WINDS 10-15 KT LATE THIS MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON, WITH
GUSTS TO ~20 KT IN THE LOWER BAY AND COASTAL WATERS SHOULD
SLOWLY DIMINISH TO 5-10 KT FROM MID TO LATE AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WAVES 1 TO 2 FT, SEAS 2-4 FT. THESE MARINE CONDITIONS
WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING MORE NE BY
SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE
JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL SCA
WINDS BACK INTO THE LOWER BAY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH WIND PROBS ALREADY BACK AOA 60% FOR NE WINDS OF
18 KT OR GREATER OVER THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER FROM
JUST BEFORE SUNRISE MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE LOW
SCOOTS NNE ALONG THE NC COAST AND THEN FARTHER OFFSHORE. A
SECONDARY PUSH OF SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND THE
DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SE
WIND WAVES ALSO INCREASE MONDAY, IN RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER
WINDS, AND HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT MONDAY AND TUESDAY,
BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TUE EVENING, AS WINDS TURN BACK
OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SCA POTENTIAL RETURNS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE
WEEK IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF WEAK, THOUGH MAINLY DRY,
FRONTAL PASSAGES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012-013-030.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ065-079-080-
087-088-092.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB/AC/RMM
SHORT TERM...AJB/RMM
LONG TERM...AJB/RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM
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