904
FXUS61 KAKQ 012325
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
725 PM EDT SAT NOV 1 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WEAK COASTAL LOW BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY NIGHT EXPECTED WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S INLAND AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 30S ACROSS
INTERIOR SE VA AND NE NC. FROST ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED.
FORECAST REMAINS LARGELY ON TRACK THIS EVENING WITH ONLY MINOR
UPDATES TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT OBSERVATIONS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
THROUGH THIS EVENING, HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
IN AHEAD OF A DECAYING FRONTAL PASSAGE FROM THE WEST. THESE HIGH
CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO STALL ACROSS THE PIEDMONT LATE TONIGHT.
THIS WILL EFFECT ON HOW LOW TEMPERATURES WILL DROP. ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WILL DROP INTO UPPER 30S. WHILE
ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 (PRIMARILY AWAY FROM THE COAST)
TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO DROP INTO THE MIDDLE TO LOWER 30S.
THIS IS DUE TO CLEAR TO MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES BEING IN PLACE AND
ALLOWING FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR. ADDITIONALLY,
FROST IS EXPECTED ACROSS THIS AREA AS THE TEMPERATURES DROP AND
WINDS DECOUPLE. WITH HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST A
FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED ALONG AND EAST OF I-95 INCLUDING
INTERIOR SE VA/NE NC. WHILE ALONG THE COASTLINE AND EASTERN
SHORE TEMPERATURES WILL ONLY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW
40S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY BEFORE CHANCES
OF RAIN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY.
BY SUNDAY, A CUTOFF LOW WILL EXIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE
CREATION OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH EXISTS THE AREA IT WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TILL LATE
SUNDAY AS IT WILL HAVE TO OVER COME THE DRY AIR LEFT IN PLACE. THERE
IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN QPF WITHIN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHERE
SOME SHOW AREAS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 TO 2". HOWEVER, LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE 60-70% OF QPF .5" PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC WITH MUCH LOWER PROBS WEST. AS OF NOW, HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HAVE .1 TO .25" ALONG I-95 TO INTERIOR SE
VA AND ACROSS THE VA EASTERN SHORE. WHILE ACROSS TIDEWATER AND NE NC
QPF TOTALS ARE BETWEEN .25 TO .50". HOWEVER, THERE COULD SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS NE NC DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS NOTED EARLIER, POPS INCREASE STARTING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 40 TO 50% ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS REMAING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE ALLOWING POPS TO DECREASE TO 25 TO 45%. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60 AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MIDDLE 50S
ALONG THE SE COAST. MONDAYS HIGHS WILL BE THE THE LOWER 60S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY HEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE BECOME SW
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING 70. IN ADDITION,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE SW WINDS. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN
NUDGED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES AS THE NBM IS TOO HIGH. AS OF NOW RH
VALUES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TRENDS IN THE
MODEL DATA AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE PIEDMONT RECEIVES
MONDAY, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER. THERE WILL AN
ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY USHERING
MORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR, BUT THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR SOME
WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 725 PM EDT SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 00Z/02 TAF PERIOD.
CLEAR/MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THIS EVENING. HIGH CLOUDS
SLOWLY BUILD E OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE TO CALM TONIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. HIGH AND
MID CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILD IN AND THICKEN SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT AND DEVELOPING WEAK COASTAL LOW.
WINDS AVERAGE 5 TO 10 KNOTS OUT OF THE E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: A WEAK COASTAL LOW LIKELY TRACKS OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON, BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN AND
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS TO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT ONWARD.
MARINE
AS OF 245 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS ACROSS THE
LOCAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
STRONG LOW PRESSURE MOVES FROM EASTERN CANADA INTO THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE LOCAL AREA FROM THE SW.
WINDS CONTINUE TO DECREASE AND ARE GENERALLY W 5-10 KT WITH 10-15 KT
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WAVES ARE 1-2 FT WITH
SEAS MAINLY 2-3 FT.
QUIET MARINE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH SUNDAY WITH WINDS
BECOMING NE BY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW
PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS. THIS WILL BRING POTENTIAL
SCA WINDS BACK INTO THE LOWER BAY BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY
MORNING, WITH WIND PROBS CONTINUING NEAR 60% FOR NE WINDS OF 18 KT
OR GREATER OVER THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER FROM JUST BEFORE
SUNRISE MONDAY INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON, AS THE LOW MOVES NNE ALONG THE
NC COAST AND THEN FARTHER OFFSHORE. A SECONDARY PUSH OF SCA-LEVEL NW
WINDS THEN FOLLOWS BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY MORNING. SE WIND WAVES ALSO INCREASE MONDAY, IN
RESPONSE TO THE STRONGER WINDS, AND HELP TO BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY, BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TUE EVENING, AS WINDS
TURN BACK OFFSHORE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE
ADDITIONAL SCA POTENTIAL RETURNS FOR WED NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK IN
RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF WEAK, THOUGH MAINLY DRY, FRONTAL
PASSAGES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR NCZ012>014-030.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR VAZ065-079>083-
087>089-092-093-096-512>522.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HET/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB/HET
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...AJB/HET
MARINE...MAM/RHR
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