348
FXUS61 KAKQ 020639
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
139 AM EST SUN NOV 2 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS WEEKEND WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
EXPECTED. CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING IN A WEAK COASTAL LOW BRINGING
LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN TUESDAY THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WEEK WITH MULTIPLE DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES MOVING
ACROSS THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES NEAR NORMAL EXPECTED.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 145 AM EDT SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY TONIGHT WITH TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 30S INLAND AND POTENTIALLY LOWER 30S ACROSS INTERIOR SE
VA AND NE NC. FROST ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT.
- PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
ACROSS FAR S VA, NE NC, AND THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH
CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR TEMPS TO
FALL INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA
(WARMER ALONG THE COAST). SOME HIGH CLOUDS WERE BEGINNING TO
PUSH INTO THE FAR NW PIEDMONT. HOWEVER, LATEST TRENDS HAVE BEEN
FOR A SLOWER PROGRESSION E WITH THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT. AS
SUCH, EXPECT EFFICIENT RADIATIONAL COOLING TO ALLOW FOR A CHILLY
NIGHT WITH LOWS SUN MORNING IN THE MID 30S OVER A LARGE PORTION
OF INLAND AREAS E OF I-95, UPPER 30S W OF I-95, AND MID 40S
ALONG THE COAST. ADDITIONALLY, SOME LOWER 30S ARE POSSIBLE
ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF SE VA/NE NC WITH A FEW LOCATIONS
POTENTIALLY REACHING NEAR 32F. AS SUCH, CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGH
IN WIDESPREAD FROST DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT INTO SUN MORNING WHERE
THE FROST ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT. PATCHY FROST IS ALSO POSSIBLE
A BIT FARTHER E INCLUDING THE LOWER MD EASTERN SHORE AND
CHESAPEAKE. ADDITIONALLY, PATCHY FOG IS POSSIBLE LATE TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SUN MORNING ACROSS FAR S VA, NE NC, AND THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER PREVAILS THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF SUNDAY BEFORE CHANCES
OF RAIN INCREASE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS BY TUESDAY.
BY SUNDAY, A CUTOFF LOW WILL EXIT THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY AND
CONTINUE TO PROPAGATE EASTWARD OVER THE AREA. THIS WILL ASSIST IN THE
CREATION OF A WEAK COASTAL LOW AT THE SURFACE SUNDAY NIGHT. THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES NORTH
OF THE AREA. AS THE HIGH EXISTS THE AREA IT WILL ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO
INCREASE. HOWEVER, RAIN CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO HOLD OFF TILL LATE
SUNDAY AS IT WILL HAVE TO OVER COME THE DRY AIR LEFT IN PLACE. THERE
IS STILL SOME SPREAD IN QPF WITHIN THE DETERMINISTIC MODELS WHERE
SOME SHOW AREAS RECEIVING BETWEEN 1 TO 2". HOWEVER, LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO HAVE 60-70% OF QPF .5" PRIMARILY ACROSS FAR SE
VA/NE NC WITH MUCH LOWER PROBS WEST. AS OF NOW, HAVE KEPT CLOSE TO
THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE AND HAVE .1 TO .25" ALONG I-95 TO INTERIOR SE
VA AND ACROSS THE VA EASTERN SHORE. WHILE ACROSS TIDEWATER AND NE NC
QPF TOTALS ARE BETWEEN .25 TO .50". HOWEVER, THERE COULD SOME
ISOLATED HIGHER TOTALS ACROSS NE NC DEPENDING ON THE PLACEMENT OF
THE HEAVIER SHOWERS. AS NOTED EARLIER, POPS INCREASE STARTING LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT WITH 40 TO 50% ACROSS ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC. BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA WITH
THE HIGHEST CHANCE OF POPS REMAING ACROSS SOUTHERN VA/NE NC CLOSER TO
THE SURFACE LOW. BY MONDAY AFTERNOON THE SURFACE LOW WILL PUSH
OFFSHORE ALLOWING POPS TO DECREASE TO 25 TO 45%. OTHERWISE,
TEMPERATURES HIGHS SUNDAY WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MIDDLE 60 AND LOWS
WILL BE IN THE MIDDLE TO UPPER 40S INLAND AND LOW TO MIDDLE 50S
ALONG THE SE COAST. MONDAYS HIGHS WILL BE THE THE LOWER 60S INLAND
AND MIDDLE 60S ALONG THE COAST. BY TUESDAY A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
HAVE PUSHED THROUGH THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE BACK
OVERHEAD. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER TO PREVAIL AND
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 60S AREA WIDE.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 305 PM EDT SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A GRADUAL WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH MID-WEEK WITH DRY WEATHER
CONTINUING.
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO SLIDE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY HEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. AS IT MOVES OFFSHORE WINDS WILL BE BECOME SW
ALLOWING FOR TEMPERATURES TO INCREASE. HIGHS ARE PROGGED TO BE IN
THE UPPER 60S WITH SOME AREAS POSSIBLY REACHING 70. IN ADDITION,
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE AHEAD OF THE FRONT
POTENTIALLY INCREASING THE SW WINDS. DEW POINTS HAVE ALSO BEEN
NUDGED DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES AS THE NBM IS TOO HIGH. AS OF NOW RH
VALUES ARE IN THE MIDDLE 30S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT. TRENDS IN THE
MODEL DATA AND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH RAIN THE PIEDMONT RECEIVES
MONDAY, THERE COULD BE AN INCREASE IN FIRE WEATHER. THERE WILL AN
ADDITIONAL COLD FRONT THAT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THURSDAY USHERING
MORE COOLER AND DRIER AIR, BUT THEN BY THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND THE HIGH WILL BEGIN TO MOVE OFFSHORE ALLOWING FOR SOME
WARMER AIR TO RETURN TO THE AREA.
AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 135 AM EDT SUNDAY...
MAINLY CLEAR SKIES PERSIST THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE TERMINALS
WITH HIGH CLOUDS SLOWLY BUILDING E OVERNIGHT MAINLY WEST OF
I-95. CALM WINDS AND CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP ACROSS FAR S VA, NE NC, AND THE MD EASTERN
SHORE OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN FOG
IS LOW AT ANY GIVEN TERMINAL, PATCHY FOG WITH MVFR OR IFR VIS
IS POSSIBLE AT SBY AND ECG. AS SUCH, HAVE ADDED TEMPOS FOR FOG
FOR THOSE TERMINALS. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED SUN DUE TO
MAINLY HIGH CLOUDS GRADUALLY INCREASING IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE
DAY. CLOUD COVER INCREASES SUN EVENING INTO SUN NIGHT AS A WEAK
COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS SE OF THE LOCAL AREA. ADDITIONALLY, LIGHT
RAIN GRADUALLY SPREADS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION SUN EVENING INTO
SUN NIGHT, BUT WITH GENERALLY LOW CONFIDENCE AT ANY GIVEN
TERMINAL BEFORE 4-6Z MON. OTHERWISE, CALM WINDS TONIGHT BECOME
E 5-10 KT SUN AFTERNOON, BECOMING NE ~5 KT SUN NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A WEAK COASTAL LOW LIKELY TRACKS OFFSHORE SUN NIGHT
INTO MON, BRINGING SOME LIGHT TO OCCASIONALLY MODERATE RAIN AND
MVFR/IFR CIGS TO THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE IS ACROSS SE
VA/NE NC. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT ONWARD.
MARINE
AS OF 140 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING.
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST LATE TODAY AND
TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCAS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1022MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS. TO THE SOUTH, A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH LINGERS
OFFSHORE OF THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, AS WEAK LOW PRESSURE DROPS
ACROSS THE MID-SOUTH EARLY THIS MORNING. LOCALLY, WINDS ARE
W-SW ~5-10KT. WAVES 1 FT OR LESS, SEAS ARE 1-2 FT EARLY THIS
MORNING.
MAINLY BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY, AS THE
SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. WINDS VEER
AROUND TO THE NNE AS THIS HAPPENS, AND ALSO IN RESPONSE TO
DEVELOPING COASTAL LOW PRESSURE JUST SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS
ALONG THE COASTAL FRONT, NEAR KCHS. THIS WEAK LOW LIFTS NE
ACROSS HATTERAS LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING, BEFORE
SCOOTING NE OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT BRIEFLY TIGHTENS LATE
THIS EVENING, AND WILL BRING POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF WINDOW OF SCA
WINDS BACK INTO THE LOWER BAY JUST BEFORE SUNRISE EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. THIS SHOULD BE RATHER SHORT-LIVED, AND WIND PROBS HAVE
BACKED OFF A BIT, NOW SHOWING LESS THAN A 40% PROB OF NE WINDS
OF 18 KT OR GREATER OVER THE LOWER BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER
THROUGH MIDDAY ON MONDAY. WILL CAP WINDS JUST BELOW SCA
THRESHOLDS FOR RIGHT NOW IN THE BAY, BUT WE WILL ALSO HAVE TO
WATCH THE SECONDARY PUSH OF SCA-LEVEL NW WINDS THAT FOLLOWS
BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SCA PROBS ARE AOA 60% FOR MOST OF THE MARINE AREA LATE
MON NIGHT AND TUE MORNING WITH A WEAK SHOT OF CAA.
FOR SEAS, SE WIND WAVES ALSO INCREASE MONDAY, IN RESPONSE TO THE
DEVELOPING LOW OFFSHORE. EURO WAVE GUIDANCE IS A BIT MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN THE WAVEWATCH BUT EACH MODEL, AND HENCE THE NBM
BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT MONDAY, BEFORE NOON SOUTH OF CAPE CHARLES,
THEN AFTER NOON INTO MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY FARTHER NORTH. SEAS
THEN GRADUALLY SUBSIDE TUE EVENING AS WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND
DIMINISH. SCA FOR BUILDING SEAS ARE LIKELY OVER THE COASTAL
WATERS AND PERHAPS THE MOUTH OF CHES BAY ON MONDAY, WITH SCA
LIKELY TO FOLLOW FOR MOST ZONES LATER MON NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
CONDITIONS THEN IMPROVE ACROSS THE WATERS TUESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY WEDNESDAY, BEFORE ADDITIONAL SCA POTENTIAL RETURNS FOR WED
NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK, IN RESPONSE TO A SERIES OF WEAK,
THOUGH MAINLY DRY, FRONTAL PASSAGES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>014-030.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ065-079>083-
087>089-092-093-096-512>522.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...HET/RMM
NEAR TERM...AJB/HET/RMM
SHORT TERM...HET
LONG TERM...HET
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...MAM/RHR
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