630
FXUS61 KAKQ 030710
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
210 AM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONAL THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WEAK COASTAL LOW BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
A CUTOFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS HELPED FORM A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
OUTERBANKS. THIS LOW, IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW, HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM <0.25"
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA TO 0.5-1" ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO ~1.5" POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER CLEARS
FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPS AS OF 130 AM RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID-UPPER 50S
SE. TEMPS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY STEADY WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID-UPPER 50S SE. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVER AND LINGERING RAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON, TEMPS ARE EXPECTED TO BE COOLER ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE
FA WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE 60F. MEANWHILE, TEMPS WARM
INTO THE MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT GIVEN A LONGER DURATION OF
SUNSHINE. COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST
INLAND AREAS (LOCALLY UPPER 30S) AND MID-UPPER 40S ALONG THE
COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
- BREEZY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE WED.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WED. TUE NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40F FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW
INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH FROST
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPS FOR FROST, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WED NIGHT WILL BE MILDER
WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE, WINDS BECOME NW ON TUE
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS BECOME SW AND BREEZY ON WED BEHIND A WARM FRONT
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FA. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 210 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRI NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FA (POPS OF
25-40%). ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS SUN, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER (15-25% POPS). SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FAVORED FROM LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S THU AND MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F FRI-SUN.
AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY...
RAIN HAS OVERSPREAD THE AREA OVERNIGHT AND WILL CONTINUE INTO
MON BEFORE GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE
DAY. MVFR TO OCCASIONALLY IFR VIS IS EXPECTED WITH THE RAIN. CIGS
CONTINUE TO DROP OVERNIGHT WITH MVFR CIGS BECOMING MORE
WIDESPREAD BY ~7Z MON (~11Z MON AT SBY). IFR CIGS CONTINUE TO
SPREAD NORTH AS WELL WITH THE HIGHEST CONFIDENCE AT RIC AND ECG
(LOWER CONFIDENCE AT PHF AND ORF). RIC WILL LIKELY REMAIN IFR
ONCE IT BEGINS THROUGH 14-15Z MON WHEREAS IFR CIGS MAY BECOME
MORE TEMPORARY ACROSS THE SE TERMINALS (PHF/ORF/ECG). ECG HAS
ALREADY DROPPED TO IFR CIGS AS OF 530Z MON, HOWEVER, MODEL
GUIDANCE SHOWS CIGS TRANSITIONING BETWEEN MVFR AND IFR THROUGH
THE NIGHT AND INTO MON MORNING. RAIN TAPERS OFF BY 16-18Z MON
ALONG THE COAST WITH MVFR CIGS LINGERING UNTIL ~18-19Z AT RIC
AND ~21-22Z AT THE REST OF THE TERMINALS. CLOUDS CLEAR LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS DRY AIR MOVES IN BEHIND THE
SYSTEM WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED MON NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS MON
NIGHT ONWARD.
MARINE
AS OF 150 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS CONTINUE THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS PREVAIL THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE IS
JUST OFFSHORE OF THE WATERS. WINDS ARE E AT 5-10 KT WITH 1-2 FT
SEAS/WAVES. WINDS BECOME NE AT 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20 KT BY
AROUND MIDNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE BEGINS TO DEVELOP OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE LOW QUICKLY TRACKS NNE TO A POSITION OFFSHORE OF THE VA
COAST BY MIDDAY. THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT ON THE BACK SIDE
OF THE LOW WILL ALLOW WINDS TURN TO THE N AND INCREASE TO ~20 KT
WITH GUSTS OF 25 KT BY MONDAY AM ACROSS THE LOWER CHES BAY AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS BY AROUND SUNRISE. WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR
SUSTAINED 18 KT WINDS NOW 50-80%, HAVE ISSUED SCAS STARTING AT 11Z/6
AM FOR THE LOWER BAY, COASTAL WATERS S OF CAPE CHARLES, AND
CURRITUCK SOUND. GIVEN THAT CAA WILL INITIALLY BE VERY WEAK,
NORTHERLY WINDS SHOULD REMAIN A COUPLE KNOTS BELOW SCA THRESHOLDS
ELSEWHERE THROUGH THE DAY ON MON. A SECONDARY (STRONGER) PUSH OF CAA
ARRIVES FROM THE NW MONDAY EVENING WITH CAA CONTINUING MONDAY NIGHT-
TUE AM. SOLID/STRONG SCAS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY, OCEAN,
AND LOWER JAMES DURING THIS TIME WITH NW WINDS AVERAGING AROUND 25
KT WITH GUSTS OF 30-35 KT (SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE LOWER JAMES). SCAS
BEGIN AT 7 PM MONDAY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE MARINE ZONES (WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE UPPER RIVERS) AND ARE IN EFFECT UNTIL 18Z/1 PM
TUESDAY. WIND PROBS FOR GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LOW, BUT NON-ZERO (10-
25%) MONDAY NIGHT-EARLY TUE AM. SO, WHILE THERE WILL LIKELY BE A FEW
GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 35 KT AT ELEVATED SITES, THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE IN FREQUENT 34+ KT GUSTS TO ISSUE A GALE WATCH ATTM.
WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT-EARLY WEDNESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVERHEAD, BUT ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS IS
LIKELY FROM LATE WED-THU BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND A COLD FRONT (WITH
SW WINDS BECOMING NW).
SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT (HIGHEST S) BY MONDAY AM BEFORE BUILDING TO 5-6
FT IN ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BY MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY
BUILD TO ~4 FT BY MONDAY NIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631-638-650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ633-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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