356
FXUS61 KAKQ 031735
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1235 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW MOVES NORTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY. LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST TODAY. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A
LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT ALONG A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES
REMAIN SEASONAL THIS WEEK WITH SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY AND SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
FAVORED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 550 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WEAK COASTAL LOW BRINGS WIDESPREAD RAIN TO THE AREA THIS
MORNING WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOL TODAY WITH HIGHS AROUND 60 DEGREES ACROSS SE PORTIONS OF
THE AREA AND MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT.
A CUTOFF LOW MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST AND OUT TO SEA TODAY
INTO TONIGHT. THIS HAS HELPED FORM A WEAK SURFACE LOW ALONG THE
OUTERBANKS. THIS LOW, IN COMBINATION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL ASCENT
FROM THE CUTOFF LOW, HAS ALLOWED FOR WIDESPREAD RAIN TO
OVERSPREAD THE AREA. RAIN GRADUALLY TAPERS OFF FROM W TO E LATER
THIS MORNING INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS THE LOW MOVES FARTHER
OFFSHORE. RAINFALL TOTALS ARE EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM <0.25"
ACROSS THE NW HALF OF THE FA TO 0.5-1" ACROSS SE VA/NE NC WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS UP TO ~1.5" POSSIBLE. CLOUD COVER CLEARS
FROM W TO E THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH CLEAR SKIES
EXPECTED TONIGHT.
TEMPS AS OF 550 AM RANGED FROM THE UPPER 40S NW TO THE MID-
UPPER 50S SE. GIVEN THE WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND LINGERING
RAIN ALONG THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS AFTERNOON, TEMPS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE COOLER ACROSS THE SE HALF OF THE FA WITH HIGHS
STRUGGLING TO REACH ABOVE 60F. MEANWHILE, TEMPS WARM INTO THE
MID 60S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT GIVEN A LONGER DURATION OF SUNSHINE.
COOL TONIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 40S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS
(LOCALLY UPPER 30S) AND MID-UPPER 40S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 205 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
- BREEZY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA TUE BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE WED.
THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY WEATHER AND WARMING CONDITIONS. HIGHS ARE
EXPECTED TO RANGE FROM THE LOW-MID 60S TUE AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER
70S WED. TUE NIGHT WILL BE THE COOLEST WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 30S TO
AROUND 40F FOR MOST INLAND AREAS AND MID 40S ALONG THE COAST. A FEW
INLAND LOCATIONS MAY SEE LOWS DIPPING INTO THE MID 30S WITH FROST
POSSIBLE. GIVEN THE MARGINAL TEMPS FOR FROST, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY
POTENTIAL FROST ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME. WED NIGHT WILL BE MILDER
WITH LOWS IN THE MID-UPPER 40S. OTHERWISE, WINDS BECOME NW ON TUE
WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE WITH GUSTS
UP TO 20 MPH. WINDS BECOME SW AND BREEZY ON WED BEHIND A WARM FRONT
WITH WINDS INCREASING TO 10-25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS
THE ENTIRE FA. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST
OF THE EASTERN SHORE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 210 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRI NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FA (POPS OF
25-40%). ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS SUN, HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOWER (15-25% POPS). SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE
FAVORED FROM LATE WEEK INTO THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID
60S THU AND MID-UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70F FRI-SUN.
AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST MONDAY...
MVFR TO IFR CIGS STILL LINGER ACROSS THE TERMINALS THIS AFTERNOON.
MOST OF THE RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE AREA, WITH ONLY A FEW AREAS OF
LIGHT RAIN NEAR SBY AND ECG, SO HAVE KEPT VCSH IN THOSE TAFS
FOR NOW. THESE DEGRADED FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL QUICKLY END OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS SKIES CONTINUE TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO
EAST. CLEAR SKIES ARE FORECAST STARTING THIS EVENING AND VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH TOMORROW AFTERNOON. WNW WINDS
WILL DROP TO 5-10 KTS OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS
POSSIBLE MAINLY AT ECG. GUSTS WILL RETURN TO ALL TERMINALS
TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS
MORNING BRINGS ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS ACROSS THE LOWER BAY AND
SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES TODAY.
- A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE THIS EVENING WILL BRING A STRONGER SURGE
OF COOLER DRIER AIR TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL BUT THE UPPER RIVERS FOR LATE TONIGHT THROUGH
EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A COUPLE OF WEAK, MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES CROSS THE AREA
DURING THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD (WED NIGHT INTO THU, THEN
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY). SCAS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE
BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS 1026+MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE OVER THE
COASTAL NORTHEAST INTO EASTERN NEW ENGLAND. LOCALLY, WEAK BUT SLOWLY
DEEPENING ~1016MB LOW PRESSURE WAS ANALYZED JUST SOUTH OF HATTERAS
EARLY THIS MORNING. WINDS HAVE BEGUN TO INCREASE ACROSS THE LOCAL
WATERS, AVERAGING 10-15 KT, BUT A BIT HIGHER TOWARD 15-20 KT OVER
THE FAR SOUTHERN WATERS. WE'VE ALSO BEGUN TO NOTE SOME GUSTS TO
AROUND 20 KT IN THE LOWER BAY EARLY THIS MORNING. THE INCREASING
WINDS HAVE ALSO INCREASED SEAS, WITH EASTERLY 5-7 SEC WIND WAVES
HAVE HELPED TO BUILD SEAS TO 4-6 FT JUST SOUTH OF CURRITUCK LIGHT,
AND EXPECT SEAS WILL BE BUILDING OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. FOR THAT
REASON, HAVE STARTED SCA FOR THE SOUND, AND COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
CAPE CHARLES AT 3 AM THIS MORNING, THE REMAINDER OF THE COASTAL
WATERS AND THE BAY SOUTH OF NEW PT COMFORT FOLLOW AT 6AM, WITH
BUILDING SEAS AND WINDS EXPECTED.
THE LOW QUICKLY LIFTS NNE TO A POSITION OFFSHORE OF THE VA CAPES BY
MIDDAY. BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW, THE TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT
WILL ALLOW WINDS TURN TO THE NNW AND INCREASE TO ~20 KT WITH GUSTS
OF 25-30 KT BY FROM AROUND 12Z OR SO THROUGH MIDDAY ACROSS THE LOWER
CHES BAY AND THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES. WINDS BRIEFLY
LEVEL OFF OR EVEN DIMINISH SLIGHTLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EARLY EVENING, UNTIL A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS
EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL
BRING A SECOND SURGE OF SOLID/STRONG SCAS ACROSS THE ENTIRE BAY,
OCEAN, AND LOWER JAMES FROM LATE THIS EVENING INTO MID TO LATE
MORNING ON TUESDAY. NW WINDS AVERAGE AROUND 25 KT WITH GUSTS TO
AROUND 30 KT (SLIGHTLY LESS ON THE LOWER JAMES). WHILE GALE
PROBS REMAIN <10-20% FOR MOST OF THE WATERS (THOUGH 30-50%
OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL ZONES), THERE IS A POTENTIAL
FOR SOME GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THIS EVENING, GIVEN H85 WINDS OF
35-40 KT, LIKELY COINCIDING WITH THE INITIAL FRONTAL PASSAGE.
THESE GUSTS SHOULD BE SHORT-LIVED AND LIKELY BEST HANDLED WITH
SMWS. FOR THAT REASON, THE SCAS THAT GO INTO EFFECT AT 7 PM FOR
THE MIDDLE AND UPPER BAY, LOWER JAMES, AND NORTHERN COASTAL
ZONES WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS IS FOR NOW THROUGH TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH TUESDAY NIGHT- EARLY
WEDNESDAY AS ~1028MB HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES OVERHEAD.
HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS ARE LIKELY TO BE NEEDED FROM WED
AFTERNOON INTO THU, BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND ANOTHER PASSING DRY
COLD FRONT. PRE- FRONTAL S-SW WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-NW
POST-FRONTAL. A VERY SIMILAR SETUP THEN FOLLOWS ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY
ON FRIDAY, TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY
MORNING. SSW WINDS FRIDAY SHIFT W-NW LATE FRI NIGHT AND
SATURDAY.
SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT (HIGHEST S) THIS MORNING, BUILDING TO 5-6 FT IN
ALL NEARSHORE WATERS BY LATE TONIGHT. WAVES ON THE CHES BAY BUILD TO
~3-4 FT POST-FRONTAL TONIGHT.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-638-
650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM/NB
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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