169
FXUS61 KAKQ 032345
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
645 PM EST MON NOV 3 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COASTAL LOW OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST WILL MOVE
NORTHEAST AND FURTHER OFFSHORE TONIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS RETURN
THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY WITH A CHANCE FOR RAIN FRIDAY NIGHT
ALONG A COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES REMAIN SEASONAL THIS WEEK WITH
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED THROUGH TUESDAY AND
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FAVORED FROM WEDNESDAY INTO
NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CLEARING SKIES WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING.
- A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH
LOWS DROPPING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S.
THE COASTAL LOW THAT BROUGHT RAINFALL TO THE AREA LAST NIGHT
AND TODAY IS CURRENTLY POSITIONED OFF THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST.
RAINFALL TOTALS RANGE FROM 1-2" ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC TO
0.10-0.75" ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA. REMAINING
CLOUD COVER IN THE EAST WILL CONTINUE TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS
EVENING, WITH CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED BY EARLY TONIGHT ACROSS THE
ENTIRE AREA. LATEST OBS INDICATE SOME PATCHY FOG OUT THERE,
MOSTLY IN THE SE WHERE RAIN TOTALS WERE HIGHER, BUT THIS SHOULD
CLEAR OUT WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE WIND PICKS UP BEHIND
THE A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ADVANCE THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT.
LOWS WILL STEADILY DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S (MID 40S
ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST).
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WITH MILDER WEATHER EXPECTED
ON WEDNESDAY.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE ON TUESDAY NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
- BREEZY SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO
20-25 MPH POSSIBLE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH
A COOLER AIRMASS IN PLACE, NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST FOR
TOMORROW WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S. BREEZIER WNW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TOMORROW, WITH MOST AREAS LIKELY TO SEE GUSTS OF UP TO 15
MPH. AREAS ALONG THE COAST WILL LIKELY SEE GUSTS OF 15-20 MPH, WITH
EASTERN SHORE COMMUNITIES SEEING GUSTS OF ~20 MPH BY TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. AS THE CENTER OF THE HIGH SHIFTS CLOSER OVERHEAD BY
TUESDAY EVENING, WINDS WILL DROP CONSIDERABLY. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR
IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS, SO TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO
THE MID TO UPPER 30S, WITH LOWER 40S ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WITH
TEMPERATURES DROPPING JUST ABOVE FREEZING TUESDAY NIGHT, THERE IS
POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY TO AREAS OF FROST IN A FEW INLAND AREAS. A WARM
FRONT WILL LIFT THROUGH THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY, BRINGING WARMER
TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 60S TO NEAR 70 DEGREES AND STRONGER
WESTERLY WINDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO INCREASE TO 10-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20-25 MPH ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. A FEW GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH ARE POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE. THESE
STRONGER WEST WINDS, DRIER AIRMASS, AND WARMER TEMPERATURES COULD
LEAD TO ISOLATED AREAS OF INCREASED FIRE DANGER IN OUR NORTHERN
COUNTIES AS THEY DID NOT GET NEARLY THE RAINFALL THAT THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF OUR AREA RECEIVED TODAY. WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE MUCH
MILDER, WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S. A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN ITS WAKE.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 215 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GENERALLY DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES INTO THE REGION.
ALOFT, ZONAL FLOW TO WEAK RIDGING IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA
FROM MID TO LATE WEEK WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING FRI NIGHT INTO SAT.
AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION THU AND FRI
WITH DRY WEATHER CONTINUING. A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION
FRI NIGHT WITH A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FA (POPS OF
25-50%). ANOTHER CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS EXISTS SUNDAY AS
ANOTHER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND DRAGS A
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS LOWER (15-25%
POPS). SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS ARE FAVORED FROM LATE WEEK INTO
THIS WEEKEND WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW-MID 60S THU AND MID-UPPER 60S TO
NEAR 70 F FRI-SUN.
AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST MONDAY...
REMAINING CLOUD COVER IS CLEARING OUT THIS EVENING AS LOW
PRESSURE OFF THE COAST PULLS AWAY AND A DRY COLD FRONT SWEEPS
THROUGH THE REGION. WINDS ARE FAIRLY LIGHT AS OF LATEST OBS, BUT
WNW WINDS WILL PICK UP WITH GUSTS AROUND 15KT BEHIND THE FRONT
(03-04Z). HAVE NOTED SOME PATCHY FOG IN THE AREA, MOSTLY IN THE
E. THIS SHOULD CLEAR OUT ONCE THE WINDS PICK UP. BREEZY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE UNTIL LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM MON
NIGHT THROUGH LATE WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 215 PM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE THIS EVENING WILL BRING A STRONGER SURGE
OF COOLER DRIER AIR TONIGHT. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN
EFFECT FOR ALL MARINE ZONES FROM NOW/THIS EVENING THROUGH LATE
TUESDAY MORNING OR EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON.
- A BRIEF PERIOD OF 35-40 KNOT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE IMMEDIATELY BEHIND
THE FRONT (FROM 10 PM-3 AM), WHICH COULD REQUIRE SMWS.
- A COUPLE OF WEAK, MAINLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGES CROSS THE AREA DURING
THE MID TO LATE WEEK PERIOD (WED NIGHT INTO THU, THEN FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY). SCAS ARE LIKELY OVER THE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS FOR BOTH OF THESE PERIODS.
LATEST ANALYSIS SHOWS DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 150
MILES EAST OF THE SE VA COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH A SECONDARY COLD
FRONT STILL TO OUR NW. AFTER BEING GUSTY ACROSS THE SE VA/NE NC
WATERS THIS MORNING, NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE DIMINISHED TO ~15 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 20 KT. THAT SECONDARY COLD FRONT IS PROGGED TO QUICKLY
CROSS THE WATERS FROM NW TO SE BETWEEN 10 PM-1 AM TONIGHT. WINDS
WILL QUICKLY BECOME NW BEHIND THE FRONT AND INCREASE TO 25 KT WITH
GUSTS TO 30-35 KT THE REST OF THE NIGHT. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
A BRIEF (~2 HOUR) PERIOD OF LOW-END GALE GUSTS IMMEDIATELY FOLLOWING
THE FROPA, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS N
OF CAPE CHARLES. GIVEN THE EXPECTED BRIEF DURATION OF GALE GUSTS,
THIS WILL BE HANDLED WITH SMWS IF NEEDED. LOCAL WIND PROBS FOR 34+
KT GUSTS HAVE ACTUALLY INCREASED TO 20-40% ON THE NORTHERN BAY (NEAR
TANGIER) AND ARE 30-60% 20NM OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
FOR THAT 2 HOUR PERIOD. HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE UPPER RIVERS FROM 7
PM TODAY-10 AM TUE AND SCAS REMAIN IN PLACE FOR THE REST OF THE
MARINE AREA THROUGH 1 PM TUESDAY. WINDS TEMPORARILY DIMINISH TUESDAY
NIGHT-EARLY WEDNESDAY AS ~1028MB HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY SETTLES
OVERHEAD. HOWEVER, ANOTHER ROUND OF SOLID/STRONG SCAS ARE LIKELY
FROM WED AFTERNOON INTO THU, BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND ANOTHER
PASSING DRY COLD FRONT. PRE-FRONTAL S-SW WINDS SHIFT AROUND TO THE W-
NW POST-FRONTAL. A VERY SIMILAR SETUP THEN FOLLOWS ONCE AGAIN FOR
FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH TRANSIENT HIGH PRESSURE SLIDING BY ON
FRIDAY, TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER FRONTAL PASSAGE SATURDAY MORNING.
SSW WINDS FRIDAY SHIFT TO THE W-NW LATE FRI NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
SEAS HAVE BUILT TO 5-6 FT N/6-7 FT S, AND WILL REMAIN IN THAT RANGE
THROUGH THE NIGHT BEFORE GRADUALLY SUBSIDING TO 3-4 FT BY THE END OF
THE DAY ON TUESDAY. WAVES ON THE BAY ARE LIKELY 2-4 FT AND WILL
BUILD TO 3-5 FT TONIGHT WITH THE INCREASING NW WIND. SUB-SCA WAVES
AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED FROM TUE NIGHT-WED AM WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF
SCA WAVES/SEAS EXPECTED FROM LATE WED-THU.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ632>634-638-
650-652-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AC/NB
SHORT TERM...RMM/NB
LONG TERM...RMM/NB
AVIATION...AC
MARINE...ERI/MAM
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