666
FXUS61 KAKQ 042000
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
300 PM EST TUE NOV 4 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM, DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEFLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO MILDER, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/
AS OF 1220 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- LOWS FALL INTO THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S WITH PATCHY FROST
POSSIBLE IN A FEW SPOTS.
PLEASANT WX PREVAILS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
AS ~1026MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE IS BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA FROM
THE WEST. TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 50S-MID 60S WITH DEW PTS AROUND
30F. WINDS BECOME LIGHT OR CALM TONIGHT WITH SKIES REMAINING
MOSTLY CLEAR AS THE SFC HIGH BUILDS OVER SRN VA AND THE
CAROLINAS. THE RESULTANT DIMINISHING WINDS AND COOL/DRY AIRMASS
WILL ALLOW FOR IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS. WILL
CONTINUE TO UNDERCUT NBM NUMBERS BY A FEW DEGREES, WITH
FORECAST LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S, AND LOWER 40S ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST. WHILE THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FROST
ACROSS INTERIOR SRN VA/NE NC...NO ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED WITH
FORECAST LOWS NO LOWER THAN 35-36F AND IT ALREADY BEING EARLY
NOVEMBER.
SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER RETURNS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE ON TONIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
- BREEZY AND SEASONALLY WARM ON WEDNESDAY, WITH HIGHS WARMING ABOVE
NORMAL. SW WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25-35
MPH POSSIBLE.
A STRONG BUT FAST MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO TRACK
FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO NEW ENGLAND FROM WED-WED NIGHT. WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW DURING THE DAY ON WED AHEAD OF THE ASSOCIATED
(DRY) COLD FRONT, WITH GUSTS TO 30-35 MPH (LOCALLY 40 MPH) LIKELY
OVER LAND AREAS. IT WILL ALSO WARM INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S
UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH AFTN DEW PTS ONLY RECOVERING TO
~40F, MIN RH VALUES WILL BE AROUND 30-35% INLAND. WHILE MOST OF OUR
AREA RECEIVED AT LEAST 0.25-0.5" OF RAIN YESTERDAY, AREAS FROM
LOUISA TO FARMVILLE DID NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN. THEREFORE, HAVE ISSUED
AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER FOR THESE AREAS FROM 11 AM-6 PM
WED.
THE SEASONABLY STRONG, BUT MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE
REGION WED NIGHT, WITH SW WINDS BECOMING NW POST-FRONTAL. THE
RESULTING BREEZY CONDITIONS/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HELP TO KEEP
US MUCH MILDER. FORECAST LOWS EARLY THU MORNING MAINLY IN THE MID-
UPPER 40S. ANOTHER TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH SLIDES OVERHEAD POST-
FRONTAL ON THURSDAY, WITH WEAK CAA AGAIN KNOCKING TEMPERATURES BACK
NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMO, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
(UPPER 50S EASTERN SHORE). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA THU
NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. AT LEAST PATCHY
FROST IS LIKELY THU NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS WITH FORECAST LOWS IN
THE LOWER-MID 30S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES RECOVER WELL INTO THE 60S
ON FRIDAY AS THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE AND WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
SSW.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
- SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL PUSH ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA, BUT A WIDESPREAD
WETTING RAIN IS NOT EXPECTED. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF ANOTHER (MUCH STRONGER) COLD FRONT, WITH 70S
POSSIBLE ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE FA.
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK AS A DEEP TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A
STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL DRAG THAT STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
FRONT. WARM AGAIN ON SUN WITH AT LEAST LOWER 70S LIKELY (ESPECIALLY
E/SE). DRY AND MUCH COLDER WX IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS
THE ABOVE MENTIONED FULL-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS EAST
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY
DROP TO -10C BY TUE AM AS A COLD, CANADIAN AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. MOST MODELS, AND HENCE THE NBM, SHOWING
INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM BRING THE COOLEST AIR OF
THE SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE
50S ON MONDAY WITH MID-UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TUE DESPITE SUNSHINE.
IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OCCUR
ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1220 PM EST TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
18Z/04 TAF PERIOD. NW WINDS AROUND 10 KT BECOME LIGHT OR CALM
TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE AREA. WINDS BECOME SW
AND INCREASE TO ~15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT ON WED AHEAD OF A DRY
COLD FRONT.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
WED NIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS TURN W-NW POST-
FRONTAL AND BRIEFLY DIMINISH, BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT, WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY
EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
- ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS
AFTN. THE WIND IS MAINLY WNW 10-15KT, AND 5-10KT IN THE UPPER RIVERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS ARE 2-3FT, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO SW, BEFORE
INCREASING TO 10-15KT TOWARD SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A SW WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. SCAS GO
INTO EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND RIVERS BY 10 AM AND THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND BY 1 PM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FURTHER TIGHTENS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH A SW WIND
INCREASING TO 25-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40KT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT ELSEWHERE. LOCAL WIND PROBS
ARE ~60-80% FOR >=34KT GUSTS AND 04/12Z EPS PROBS ARE SIMILAR. GIVEN
THIS GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING 1 PM WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO NW IN THE SUBSEQUENT CAA. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, SO
THE GALE WATCH RUNS THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECTED 20-
25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT IN THE POST-FRONTAL NW WIND. SCAS CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE UPPER RIVERS, AND THURSDAY MORNING
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD TO 5-9FT N AND 4-6FT
S, WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
CROSSES THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTN/SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 245 PM EST TUESDAY...
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, GUSTY SW WINDS (15-20 MPH,
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH), AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING CONCERN FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY. AN SPS FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LOUISA TO FARMVILLE
WHERE CONCERN IS GREATEST (DUE TO LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAIN
YESTERDAY). ELSEWHERE, HAVE HELD OFF ON SPSS AFTER COORDINATION
WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS/STATE OFFICIALS. HAVE CONTINUED TO
UNDERCUT NBM DEWPOINTS BY A FEW DEGREES ON WED, YIELDING MIN RH
IN THE 30-35% RANGE IN MOST AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE
COAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-060>062-509-510.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM WEDNESDAY TO 7 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ638.
GALE WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING
FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM WEDNESDAY TO 10 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...ERI
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...ERI
MARINE...AJZ
FIRE WEATHER...AKQ
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page