187
FXUS61 KAKQ 050803
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
303 AM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
WARM, DRY, BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF
ANOTHER COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT. BRIEFLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO MILDER, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY AND PLEASANT TODAY. HIGHS WARM ABOVE NORMAL ON
INCREASINGLY GUSTY SW WINDS. 15-20 MPH WINDS WILL GUST UP TO
25-35 MPH.
LATEST ANALYSIS REVEALS ~1028MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
THE COASTAL CAROLINAS EARLY THIS MORNING. TO THE NORTHWEST, A
DEEPENING CLIPPER LOW WAS NOTED OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST, WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT DIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS
AND THE MID MS VALLEY. THE WARM FRONT AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM IS
CURRENTLY APPROACHING THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS, AND WILL CROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT FEW PRE-DAWN HOURS.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED CLIPPER LOW SLIDES ACROSS THE UPPER
LAKES EARLY THIS MORNING, REACHING THE INTERIOR NORTHEAST AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THE
DEEPENING SYSTEM WILL ALLOW FOR A QUICK TIGHTENING OF THE
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT, RESULTING IN AN INCREASINGLY GUSTY
MID TO LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. WINDS
INCREASE OUT OF THE SW. 15-25 MPH WINDS WILL GUST TO 30-35 MPH
(LOCALLY 40 MPH) LIKELY OVER INLAND AREAS. IT WILL ALSO WARM
INTO THE UPPER 60S-LOWER 70S UNDER A MOSTLY SUNNY SKY. WITH AFTN
DEW PTS ONLY RECOVERING INTO THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S, MIN RH
VALUES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S% INLAND. WHILE MOST
OF OUR AREA RECEIVED AT LEAST 0.25-0.5" OF RAIN LATE SUNDAY AND
MONDAY, AREAS ALONG THE US-15 CORRIDOR FROM LOUISA TO
CLARKSVILLE DID NOT GET AS MUCH RAIN. THEREFORE, HAVE EXPANDED
THE EXISTING FIRE WEATHER "INCREASED FIRE DANGER" SPS INTO THE
REST OF OUR VA PIEDMONT COUNTIES FROM 11 AM-6 PM TODAY.
THE SEASONALLY STRONG, BUT MOISTURE-STARVED COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH SW WINDS BECOMING NW POST-FRONTAL.
BREEZY CONDITIONS CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS THE COLD FRONT
FINALLY SWEEPS THROUGH THE REGION BETWEEN 03-06Z/10P-1A TONIGHT.
THE RESULTING BREEZY CONDITIONS/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER HELP
TO KEEP US MUCH MILDER TONIGHT, WITH FORECAST LOWS EARLY THU
MORNING MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND, TO LOWER 50S ALONG
THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
THE FRONT QUICKLY SWEEPS OFFSHORE THU MORNING, WITH ANOTHER
TRANSIENT SURFACE HIGH QUICKLY BUILDING IN OVERHEAD ON ITS
HEELS POST- FRONTAL THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. WEAK CAA
AND MODESTLY LOWER THICKNESSES KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK NEAR OR
JUST BELOW CLIMO, WITH FORECAST HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S
(UPPER 50S EASTERN SHORE). HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA
THU NIGHT BEFORE QUICKLY MOVING OFFSHORE ON FRIDAY. AT LEAST
SOME MORE PATCHY FROST IS LIKELY THU NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS
WITH FORECAST LOWS IN THE LOWER-MID 30S. HOWEVER, TEMPERATURES
RECOVER WELL INTO THE 60S ON FRIDAY, ON BREEZY RETURN FLOW AS
THE HIGH AGAIN QUICKLY SLIDES OFFSHORE.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE REGION.
- SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL PUSH ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. COULD SEE
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH THE FROPA, BUT MODELS ARE NOT
SURPRISINGLY GETTING LESS BULLISH ON WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION.
SOME HIGH-END CHANCE POPS REMAIN, BUT QPF SHOULD BE ON THE ORDER
OF A FEW HUNDREDTHS OR LESS. WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH ON
SATURDAY WELL AHEAD OF ANOTHER (MUCH STRONGER) COLD FRONT, WITH
70S POSSIBLE ACROSS A DECENT PORTION OF THE FA.
BEHIND THAT FRONT, A MORE SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE STILL LOOKS
TO BE ON THE WAY FROM SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, AS A DEEP
TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKS WELL TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, WHICH WILL DRAG THAT
STRONGER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. WARM AGAIN ON SUN WITH AT
LEAST LOWER 70S LIKELY (ESPECIALLY E/SE), WITH AT LEAST SOME
ADDITIONAL LIGHT SCATTERED SHOWERS POSSIBLE DURING THE DAY ON
SUNDAY ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE CROSSING FRONT. DRY AND MUCH
COLDER WX IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS THE ABOVE
MENTIONED FULL-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO
-10C BY TUE AM AS A COLD, CANADIAN AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. MOST MODELS, AND HENCE THE NBM, SHOWING INCREASING
CONFIDENCE THAT THIS SYSTEM BRING THE COOLEST AIR OF THE SEASON
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE 50S ON
MONDAY WITH MID- UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TUE DESPITE SUNSHINE. IT
APPEARS LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS OCCUR ACROSS
INLAND AREAS ON BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY
NIGHT.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILS FOR THE 06Z/05 TAF PERIOD UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. OTHER THAN A FEW PATCHES OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS, A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING BECOME GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF A
WARM FRONT LATER THIS MORNING WITH SW WINDS INCREASING FROM MID
TO LATE MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS
25-30KT. LLWS HAS ALSO BEEN ACCOUNTED FOR AT MOST TERMINALS
DURING THE AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THE EVENING AS THE TRAILING
COLD FRONT CROSSES INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
TONIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS TURN W-NW POST-FRONTAL
AND BRIEFLY DIMINISH, BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT, WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST TUESDAY...
- A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY. GALE WATCHES ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
- ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL IMPACT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO SATURDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST CONUS THIS
AFTN. THE WIND IS MAINLY WNW 10-15KT, AND 5-10KT IN THE UPPER RIVERS
AND CURRITUCK SOUND. SEAS ARE 2-3FT, WITH 1-2FT WAVES IN THE CHES.
BAY. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT. THE
WIND WILL DIMINISH TO 5-10KT TONIGHT AND SHIFT TO SW, BEFORE
INCREASING TO 10-15KT TOWARD SUNRISE. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS
WEDNESDAY MORNING AS HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE AND LOW PRESSURE
TRACKS ENE ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. A SW WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25KT IN THE MORNING TO EARLY AFTN. SCAS GO
INTO EFFECT FOR THE CHES. BAY AND RIVERS BY 10 AM AND THE SOUTHERN
COASTAL WATERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND BY 1 PM. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
FURTHER TIGHTENS DURING THE AFTN AND EVENING WITH A SW WIND
INCREASING TO 25-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40KT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS AND 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT ELSEWHERE. LOCAL WIND PROBS
ARE ~60-80% FOR >=34KT GUSTS AND 04/12Z EPS PROBS ARE SIMILAR. GIVEN
THIS GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
BEGINNING 1 PM WEDNESDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST
OVERNIGHT WITH THE WIND SHIFTING TO NW IN THE SUBSEQUENT CAA. WIND
GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, SO
THE GALE WATCH RUNS THROUGH 7 AM THURSDAY. ELSEWHERE, EXPECTED 20-
25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT IN THE POST-FRONTAL NW WIND. SCAS CONTINUE
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR THE UPPER RIVERS, AND THURSDAY MORNING
ELSEWHERE OUTSIDE OF THE GALE WATCH. SEAS BUILD TO 5-9FT N AND 4-6FT
S, WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY
NIGHT, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER
ROUND OF SCA CONDITIONS LIKELY. A STRONGER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY
CROSSES THE COAST BY SUNDAY AFTN/SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 300 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, GUSTY SW WINDS (15-20 MPH,
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH), AND DRYING FUELS WILL BRING CONCERN FOR
INCREASED FIRE DANGER OVER THE AREA TODAY. AN SPS FOR INCREASED
FIRE DANGER HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE VA PIEDMONT FROM LOUISA TO
FARMVILLE WHERE CONCERN IS GREATEST (DUE TO LACK OF APPRECIABLE
RAIN LATE SUN/MON). ELSEWHERE, HAVE HELD OFF ON SPSS FARTHER
EAST AFTER COORDINATION WITH NEIGHBORING WFOS/STATE OFFICIALS.
HAVE CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT NBM DEWPOINTS BY A FEW DEGREES ON
WED, YIELDING MIN RH IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S% RANGE IN MOST
AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER FROM 11 AM EST THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-060>062-065>069-509-510.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...ERI/MAM
LONG TERM...ERI/MAM
AVIATION...AC/MAM
MARINE...AJZ
FIRE WEATHER...
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