755
FXUS61 KAKQ 052030
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EST WED NOV 5 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA TONIGHT. BRIEFLY
COOLER TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY GIVE WAY TO MILDER, SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND COLD FRONT
COULD BRING SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY EARLY NEXT WEEK
FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT, BRINGING A GUSTY
WINDS AND A BRIEF COOL DOWN.
SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SCOOTING
NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST, WITH
HIGH PRESSURE DRAPED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST OUT INTO THE WESTERN NORTH
ATLANTIC. THE GRADIENT BETWEEN THESE TWO FEATURES HAS TIGHTENED THIS
AFTERNOON. A LLJ IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA, AND WITH SW SURFACE FLOW
IN A DRY, WARMER AIR MASS, HAS BEEN ABLE TO MIX DOWN WELL AND WINDS
ARE GUSTING BETWEEN 25-40 MPH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES HAVE TANKED INTO THE 30S THIS AFTERNOON AS
EXPECTED, SO "INCREASED FIRE DANGER" CONTINUES IN THE PIEDMONT
COUNTIES. THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW WILL TRACK THROUGH THE NE AND
NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT, DRAGGING AN
ATTENDANT SEASONALLY STRONG FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE A
DRY FRONT AND NO RAIN IS EXPECTED WITH ITS PASSAGE. THE RESULTING
BREEZY CONDITIONS/WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT
WILL HELP KEEP US MUCH MILDER TONIGHT, WITH FORECAST LOWS EARLY
THURSDAY MORNING MAINLY IN THE MID-UPPER 40S INLAND, TO LOWER 50S
ALONG THE SE COASTAL PLAIN.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- FROST IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS INLAND AREAS.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TOMORROW MORNING, WITH HIGH PRESSURE
QUICKLY BUILDING IN BEHIND IT. WEAK CAA IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS
FRONT, WHICH WILL BRING TEMPERATURES DOWN TO RIGHT AROUND
NORMAL TOMORROW. HIGHS IN THE LOW TO MID 60S ARE FORECAST
TOMORROW, WITH UPPER 50S EXPECTED ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND ALONG
THE IMMEDIATE COAST. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT
THE DAY, WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS EXPECTED BY TOMORROW NIGHT.
CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS WILL MAKE FOR AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL
COOLING ENVIRONMENT THURSDAY NIGHT, SO PATCHY FRONT WILL ONCE
AGAIN BE POSSIBLE, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE MID-UPPER 30S.
TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW
RETURNS AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHING THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON FRIDAY, MAKING
FOR QUITE A COMFORTABLE, YET BREEZIER DAY.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
- SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY, WHICH
WILL PUSH ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA.
PREVIOUSLY, THIS FRONT HAD THE POTENTIAL TO BRING SOME MEASURABLE
RAINFALL TO MOST COMMUNITIES, BUT THE PAST FEW FORECAST CYCLES HAVE
SEEN LESSENING RAIN CHANCES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES (30-40%)
ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND NORTHERN COUNTIES EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WE ARE IN WILL CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND AS
WINDS TURN BACK TO THE SOUTH WELL AHEAD OF YET ANOTHER (MUCH
STRONGER) COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY REACH THE LOWER TO
MID 70S (UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE) ON SATURDAY. A SIGNIFICANT
PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY STARTING LATER THIS
WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL TO OUR
NORTH ON SUNDAY, DRAGGING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA. AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE
ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S LIKELY (ESPECIALLY E/SE). SCATTERED
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SOME MEAGER
INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY ACROSS THE SE
PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA, SO CANNOT RULE OUT A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME.
DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO -10C
BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD, CANADIAN AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE
REGION. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CONFIDENCE THAT THIS
SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL
AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO NEAR 50F ON MONDAY
WITH MID-UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TUESDAY DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
EXPECTED. IT APPEARS LIKELY THAT WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPS
OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON BOTH MONDAY NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN
TUESDAY NIGHT.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
AFTERNOON AND INTO TONIGHT. WITH STRONG WINDS EXPECTED JUST OFF THE
SURFACE THIS EVENING/EARLY TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH,
HAVE MAINTAINED MENTION OF LLWS FROM THE WSW OF 40-50 KTS FROM
ROUGHLY AROUND 22-07Z AT THE TERMINALS. AS THE DRY COLD FRONT MOVES
THROUGH TONIGHT, WINDS WILL SHIFT FROM THE SW TO NW AND START TO
GRADUALLY DECREASE OVERNIGHT, THOUGH GUSTS OF 15-20 KTS WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
TONIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS TURN W-NW POST-FRONTAL
AND BRIEFLY DIMINISH, BEFORE BECOMING BREEZY AGAIN ON FRIDAY
AHEAD OF ANOTHER FRONT, WHICH CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY EVENING
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
- A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY THURSDAY. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES, WITH SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
- ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT.
LOW PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR LAKE ONTARIO THIS AFTN WITH A COLD
FRONT TRAILING BACK THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY. MEANWHILE, HIGH
PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS IS
RESULTING IN A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
WITH A SW WIND OF 15-25KT WITH GUSTS TO ~30KT, AND LOCALLY NEARING
35KT OFF THE COAST N OF CHINCOTEAGUE. SEAS RANGE FROM 3-4FT S TO 5-
7FT N, WITH 2-3FT SEAS IN THE CHES. BAY. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR MOST
OF THE MARINE AREA, WITH GALE WARNINGS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF
CAPE CHARLES.
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT FURTHER TIGHTENS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVENING
WITH A SW WIND INCREASING TO 25-30KT WITH GUSTS TO 40KT OVER THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT ELSEWHERE.
LOCAL WIND PROBS ARE ~60-90% FOR >=34KT GUSTS AND 05/12Z EPS PROBS
ARE SIMILAR. THE COLD FRONT CROSSES THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH THE
WIND SHIFTING TO NW IN THE SUBSEQUENT CAA. WIND GUSTS UP TO 40KT ARE
LIKELY FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE.
ELSEWHERE, EXPECTED 20-25KT WITH GUSTS TO 30KT IN THE POST-FRONTAL
NW WIND, ALTHOUGH BRIEF GUSTS TO ~35KT ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE MIDDLE CHES. BAY. SCAS CONTINUE TO LATE TONIGHT FOR
THE UPPER RIVERS, AND THURSDAY MORNING ELSEWHERE. GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH 4 AM TO CAPTURE THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SEAS
BUILD TO 5-9FT N AND 4-6FT S, WITH 3-4FT WAVES IN THE CHES. BAY.
HIGH PRESSURE QUICKLY BUILDS INTO THE REGION THURSDAY AFTN INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT, BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT AND CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY.
A SSW WIND IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 15-20KT FOR THE CHES.
BAY/SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND 20-25KT FOR THE NORTHERN COASTAL
WATERS. SCAS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE CHES. BAY AND NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS. LITTLE TO NO CAA IS EXPECTED BEHIND THIS FRONT SO
POST-FRONTAL CONDITIONS SHOULD BE SUB-SCA. HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNS SATURDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT IS
PROGGED TO CROSS THE COAST SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY A PERIOD OF
STRONG CAA SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY AND AGAIN MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY
TUESDAY. SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY, WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
FOR THE CHES. BAY AND COASTAL WATERS.
A STRONGER COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY CROSSES THE COAST
BY SUNDAY AFTN/SUNDAY NIGHT.
FIRE WEATHER
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
HIGHS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S, GUSTY SW WINDS (15-20 MPH,
GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH), LOW RH VALUES, AND DRYING FUELS WILL
CONTINUE TO BRING CONCERN FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON. AN SPS FOR INCREASED FIRE DANGER
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE VA PIEDMONT FROM LOUISA TO FARMVILLE
WHERE CONCERN IS GREATEST (DUE TO LACK OF APPRECIABLE RAIN LATE
SUN/MON).
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES
HAS PUSHED WATER LEVELS NEAR TO ABOUT -1 MLLW DURING LOW TIDE
THIS AFTN. THE NEXT LOW TIDE LATER TONIGHT WILL BE SLIGHTLY
LOWER WITH RESPECT TO ASTRONOMICAL, AND WILL ALSO BE INFLUENCED
BY A LONGER PERIOD OF STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW. THEREFORE, WATER
LEVELS COULD FALL TO -1 TO -2FT MLLW DURING LOW TIDE OVERNIGHT
INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING, PARTICULARLY FOR THE ATLANTIC
COAST, THE LOWER CHES. BAY S OF NEW POINT COMFORT, THE TIDAL
JAMES, AND TIDAL YORK. LOW WATER ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR
THESE LOCATIONS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...INCREASED FIRE DANGER UNTIL 5 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ048-
060>062-065>069-509-510.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ630>632-
634-638-656-658.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ632.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ633.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 4 AM EST THURSDAY
FOR ANZ634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ635>637.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 5 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ636-
638.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM EST THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
THURSDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654-656-658.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...NB
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...MAM/NB
MARINE...AJZ
FIRE WEATHER...
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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