212
FXUS61 KAKQ 061155
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
655 AM EST THU NOV 6 2025
SYNOPSIS
A COLD FRONT MOVES OFFSHORE LATER THIS MORNING. BRIEFLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES TODAY GIVE WAY TO MILDER, SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES
FOR LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND COLD FRONT COULD BRING
SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO
SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT BRINGS SOME MUCH
COLDER WEATHER TO THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER AND REMAINING BREEZY THIS MORNING. DIMINISHING WINDS
THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
- CHILLY TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF FROST POSSIBLE ACROSS INLAND
AREAS.
SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS TRANSIENT 1026MB SFC LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE WESTERN OHIO VALLEY. TO THE NORTHEAST, DEEPENING ~992MB SFC
LOW PRESSURE WAS OVER THE GULF OF MAINE, WITH THE ATTENDANT COLD
FRONT EXTENDING OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEAST COAST, AND CROSSING
THE LOWER MID- ATLANTIC COAST AS OF THIS WRITING. BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS TO ~30-40 HAVE BEEN REPORTED WITH THIS FRONT AS IT CROSSES
THE LOCAL AREA, WITH WINDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH LATER THIS
MORNING, BUT REMAINING BREEZY THIS MORNING, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE
E VA/MD COAST.
THE FRONT SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY, HIGH QUICKLY
BUILDING IN OVERHEAD ON ITS HEELS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WEAK CAA AND MODESTLY LOWER THICKNESSES KNOCK TEMPERATURES BACK
NEAR OR JUST BELOW CLIMO, WITH FORECAST HIGHS TO RANGE FROM THE
UPPER 50S ON THE LOWER EASTERN SHORE TO THE LOW TO MID 60S WEST
OF THE BAY. HAVE UNDERCUT DEWPOINTS AGAIN TODAY, YIELDING MIN RH
VALUES IN THE 20S TO LOW 30S INLAND. ONCE AGAIN, WIND WILL BE
FAR LESS OF A FACTOR TODAY, AND THEREFORE NO IFD STATEMENTS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO BE NEEDED.
CLEAR SKY, DIMINISHING WINDS AND A DRY AIR MASS AGAIN PROVIDE
EXCELLENT RADIATING CONDITIONS TONIGHT. LOWS IN THE MID TO UPPER
30S INLAND, LOWER TO MIDDLE 40S ALONG THE COAST. SOME AREAS OF
FROST ARE ONCE AGAIN POSSIBLE, AND A FROST ADVISORY MAY BE
NEEDED FOR COMMUNITIES STILL ACTIVE IN THE FROST/FREEZE PROGRAM,
MAINLY ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-95 CORRIDOR IN CENTRAL/SOUTH
CENTRAL VA AND INTERIOR NE NC.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS THE DAY ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST, AND
SLIDES FARTHER OFFSHORE THROUGH THE DAY INTO FRIDAY EVENING.
AFTER A CHILLY START, TEMPERATURES RECOVER WELL INTO THE 60S ON
FRIDAY, ON BREEZY RETURN FLOW BEHIND THE DEPARTING SURFACE HIGH
W-SW WIND GUSTS OF 20-25 MPH ARE FORECAST, MAINLY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION.
THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL AGAIN KEEP TEMPERATURES
MILDER FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS SATURDAY RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S, TO NEAR 60 DEGREES ALONG THE COAST.
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH NUDGES ANOTHER WEAKENING COLD FRONT TOWARD
THE AREA LATE FRI NIGHT/EARLY SAT MORNING. SLIGHT TO LOW-END
CHANCE POPS REMAIN IN PLACE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY,
MAINLY NW OF A LINE FROM AHOSKIE TO WAKEFIELD AND MELFA. GIVEN
THE WEAKENING FRONT AND RATHER SHALLOW AVAILABLE MOISTURE, WOULD
EXPECT A FEW SCATTERED SHOWERS AT MOST, WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
REMAINING DRY.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- REMAINING WARM OVER THE WEEKEND, AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY
BREEZY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.
- BEHIND THAT FRONT, SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE ON
THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 40S
TO LOW 50S AND A HARD FREEZE LIKELY INLAND MONDAY NIGHT AND
POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
THE FRONT WASHES OUT AS IT CROSSES OFFSHORE EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. THE ONGOING PROGRESSIVE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES THIS
WEEKEND, AS WINDS QUICKLY BACK TO THE SSW SATURDAY WELL AHEAD
OF YET ANOTHER (MUCH STRONGER) COLD FRONT. UNTIL THAT FRONT
CROSSES LATE SUN/SUN NIGHT, TEMPERATURES LIKELY REACH THE LOWER
TO MID 70S THIS WEEKEND, WARMEST ACROSS THE SE, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE VA/MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE, WHERE TEMPERATURES
REMAIN IN THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70.
DESPITE SOME TEMPORAL DIFFERENCES, MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS ON THE WAY FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A STRONG LEAD SHORTWAVE DROPS OUT OF WESTERN CANADA AND CARVES
OUT A TROUGH OVER THE MID MS VALLEY SATURDAY INTO SAT NIGHT. A
STRONG COLD FRONT THEN DROPS OUT OF THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES AND
PLAINS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY. THE ATTENDANT SURFACE LOW
SWINGS ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES INTO NEW ENGLAND SUNDAY
INTO SUNDAY NIGHT, DRAGGING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE LOCAL AREA LATE SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. A FEW
PRE- FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT AGAIN
LIKELY TO BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE. MORE WIDESPREAD LIGHT
SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT. SOME
MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNDAY EVENING MAINLY
ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE
UNFAVORABLE TIMING AFTER SUNSET, GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS, A FEW
RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME, AND
THUS THUNDER WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS
EAST ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO DROP TO -6 TO -8 C BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A COLD,
CANADIAN AIRMASS OF ARCTIC ORIGIN SPILLS SOUTH ACROSS THE MID-
ATLANTIC. MOST MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW INCREASING CONFIDENCE
THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ACROSS
THE LOCAL AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO
NEAR 50F ON MONDAY WITH MID-UPPER 40S POSSIBLE TUESDAY DESPITE
THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. IT APPEARS THAT A WIDESPREAD
HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST MONDAY
NIGHT AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT. THE TASTE OF EARLY
WINTER TEMPERATURES WILL BE BRIEF, HOWEVER. ENSEMBLES ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT STRONG RIDGING IN THE WESTERN CONUS QUICKLY
SETTLES EAST, PROVIDING A MARKED WARMUP AND QUICKLY MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE LATTER HALF OF NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 655 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z/06 TAF PERIOD. A
COLD FRONT IS PUSHING OFFSHORE TO BEGIN THE TAF PERIOD, WITH
BREEZY W-NW WINDS TO GUST TO 18-20 KT THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON
BEFORE MIXING OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA.
OUTLOOK: HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING VFR CONDITIONS FROM
TONIGHT INTO THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. WINDS BECOME BREEZY AGAIN ON
FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AHEAD OF THE NEXT (WEAK) FRONT,
WHICH CROSSES THE AREA LATE FRIDAY EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE COULD BE ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW SHOWERS, THOUGH
VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL THROUGH THIS PERIOD. ANOTHER
STRONGER FRONT APPROACHES LATE IN THE WEEKEND, WITH SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND A BETTER CHANCE OF MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AT
LATE SUN NIGHT INTO MON. CLEARING OUT WITH MARKEDLY COOLER
CONDITIONS ON GUSTY NNW WINDS ON MONDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 320 AM EST THURSDAY...
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IS MOVING THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES THROUGH EARLY THIS
MORNING, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ELSEWHERE.
- ANOTHER MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT WILL AFFECT THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT POTENTIALLY IMPACTS THE REGION BEGINNING
SUNDAY NIGHT.
A STRONG LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND AREA IS DRAPING A STRONG
COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST US. AT THE TIME OF WRITING, THE
FRONT HAS ENTERED THE CHES. BAY BRINGING GUSTS TO 34+ KT IN THE BAY
AND NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS, AND SHIFTING WINDS OUT OF THE NW. AN
SMW IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER AND MOUTH OF THE BAY, AS WELL AS THE
LOWER YORK AND JAMES RIVERS. THE FRONT IS CURRENTLY MOVING ABOUT 15
KT ACROSS THE AREA. ALTHOUGH MOVING SLOWLY, THE FRONT SHOULD MOVE
SOUTH OF THE LOCAL WATERS BY THIS MORNING AROUND 6-7 AM. WINDS WILL
DECREASE AFTERWARDS TO 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT BY THIS
AFTERNOON. THE GALE WARNINGS WILL EXPIRE AT 4 AM THIS MORNING AND
WILL BE CONVERTED TO SCA ALONG WITH THE REST OF THE COASTAL WATERS,
BEFORE DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY THE AFTERNOON.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD INTO THE AREA BRIEFLY BEHIND THE FRONT
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE FRIDAY.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE NW FRIDAY NIGHT
AND CROSSES THE COAST SATURDAY. S WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15-20 KT
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KT IN THE BAY AND 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT IN
THE COASTAL WATERS (HIGHEST LIKELY IN THE NORTHERN WATERS). SCA ARE
ANTICIPATED FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BE
WEAKER THAN THE CURRENT ONE, SO SCA CONDITIONS ARE NOT ANTICIPATED
IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT SATURDAY.
ANOTHER STRONGER LOW PRESSURE WILL LIKELY PUSH A COLD FRONT
(POSSIBLY MULTIPLE) THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY BRINGING
ELEVATED NW WINDS. THERE IS STILL A SOME UNCERTAINTY BETWEEN THE
MODELS AT THIS TIME, BUT SCA CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUNDAY THROUGH
TUESDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH A
STRONGER SECOND FRONT. LOCAL WIND PROBS HAVE ABOUT A 20-40% CHANCE
OF 34KT GUSTS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY NIGHT.
SEAS ARE CURRENTLY 4-6 FT BUILDING TO 5-9 FT N AND 4-6 FT S THIS
MORNING, WITH WAVES OF 2-4 FT IN THE BAY. WAVES AND SEAS WILL RETURN
TO 1-2 FT IN THE BAY AND 2-3 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS BY THIS
AFTERNOON. WITH THE STRONGER COLD FRONT EARLY NEXT WEEK, WAVES AND
SEAS WILL INCREASE.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 550 AM EST THURSDAY...
STRONG OFFSHORE FLOW COMBINED WITH LOW ASTRONOMICAL LOW TIDES
HAS PUSHED WATER LEVELS NEAR TO ABOUT -1 MLLW DURING LOW TIDE
EARLY THIS MORNING (WITH SOME GAUGES REACHING -1 TO -2 MLLW)
PARTICULARLY FOR THE ATLANTIC COAST, THE LOWER CHES. BAY S OF
NEW POINT COMFORT, THE TIDAL JAMES, AND TIDAL YORK. LOW WATER
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THESE LOCATIONS AND WILL BE
ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AFTER THIS MORNINGS LOW TIDE.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ633.
LOW WATER ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...MAM
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...ERI/MAM
MARINE...KMC
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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