766
FXUS61 KAKQ 070706
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
206 AM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS EVENING GIVE WAY TO MILDER,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING IN SOME MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE
REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 830 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- CHILLY TONIGHT, WITH AREAS OF FROST LIKELY ACROSS INLAND
AREAS. A FROST ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR MANY COMMUNITIES THAT
ARE STILL IN THEIR GROWING SEASON.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND AS A
RESULT, WINDS HAVE DROPPED SIGNIFICANTLY FORM THIS AFTERNOON
AND ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR SKIES
ACROSS THE AREA, WHICH HAS HELPED TEMPERATURES COOL DOWN INTO
THE UPPER 30S TO LOWER 40S. CLEAR SKIES AND CALM WINDS WILL
RESULT IN AN IDEAL RADIATIONAL COOLING ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT, SO
AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOWS DROPPING INTO THE LOW TO
MIDDLE 30S. THERE IS THE POTENTIAL OF EVEN SOME UPPER 20S ACROSS
THE FAR NW PORTION OF THE CWA. A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE, INLAND NE NORTH CAROLINA,
AND A MAJORITY OF OUR VIRGINIA COUNTIES THAT ARE STILL IN THEIR
GROWING SEASON (EXCLUDING SOME COASTAL COMMUNITIES). THE
ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 AM TONIGHT THROUGH 8 AM TOMORROW.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE TOMORROW MORNING AHEAD OF ANOTHER
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY MODERATE AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS, WITH HIGHS REACHING THE MID TO UPPER 60S ON
FRIDAY. DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS A
WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION, WHICH WILL NEGATE ANY FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS DESPITE BREEZIER CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY THE
AFTERNOON. A WEAK SHORTWAVE PASSES BY TO OUR NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT-
SATURDAY, WHICH WILL PUSH ANOTHER COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA. AS
THE FRONT APPROACHES, IT WILL START TO WEAKEN. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE ALONG THE FRONT, WITH MOST MEASURABLE RAINFALL LIKELY
ORIENTED FROM THE MD EASTERN SHORE COMMUNITIES THROUGH THE PIEDMONT.
QPF VALUES WILL LIKELY REMAIN BELOW 0.10" FOR THE ENTIRE AREA.
OVERNIGHT, A WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES MILDER
FRIDAY NIGHT, WITH EARLY MORNING LOWS SATURDAY IN THE 50S.
DUE TO THE WEAK CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT AND THE CONTINUED SW-W
FLOW, TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. HIGHS ARE FORECAST TO REACH THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
SATURDAY, MAKING FOR QUITE A NICE START TO THE WEEKEND. THE
PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE WITH ANOTHER MUCH STRONGER FRONT
APPROACHING THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES GENERALLY MILD OVERNIGHT, WITH LOWS
IN THE UPPER 40S TO 50S. A FEW PRE-FRONTAL SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE
SATURDAY NIGHT, BUT LIKELY TO BE LIMITED IN AREAL COVERAGE.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 300 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- REMAINING WARM AND BECOMING INCREASINGLY BREEZY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
- BEHIND THE STRONG FRONT, SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO
BE ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S AND A HARD FREEZE LIKELY INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOR THE
MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY STARTING
LATER THIS WEEKEND. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO TRACK WELL
TO OUR NORTH ON SUNDAY, DRAGGING THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONGER COLD
FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE SUNDAY/SUNDAY NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT
ON SUNDAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABLE TO REACH THE LOWER 70S LIKELY
(ESPECIALLY E/SE). SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND ALONG
THE COLD FRONT. SOME MEAGER INSTABILITY WILL BE AVAILABLE SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING MAINLY ACROSS THE SE PORTION OF OUR FORECAST AREA.
DESPITE THE UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL AFTER
SUNSET, GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE
RULED OUT DURING THIS TIME, AND THUS THUNDER WORDING HAS BEEN
MAINTAINED.
DRY AND MUCH COLDER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON MONDAY
AND TUESDAY AS A FULL-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS EAST ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO AS LOW
AS -10C BY TUESDAY MORNING AS A FRIGID CANADIAN AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTH
INTO THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. FORECAST HIGHS ARE
ONLY IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ON MONDAY WITH UPPER 40S POSSIBLE
TUESDAY DESPITE THE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED. WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS INLAND AREAS ON BOTH
MONDAY NIGHT. WHILE THESE TEMPERATURES WILL BE A DRASTIC CHANGE FROM
THE WEEKEND, THEY WILL NOT STICK AROUND VERY LONG. THE TROUGH WILL
QUICKLY LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY, WITH ZONAL FLOW RETURNING
ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE
AREA, WHICH WILL HELP TEMPERATURES QUICKLY REBOUND. WEDNESDAY HIGHS
AT THIS TIME COULD REACH AS HIGH AS 60 DEGREES, CAUSING SOME WEATHER
WHIPLASH.
AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST FRIDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT ALL MAJOR TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z/07 TAF
PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST ALLOWS CLEAR SKIES AND
VARIABLE LIGHT WINDS TONIGHT. THE NEXT COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH
THE AREA THIS EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THIS WILL INCREASE WINDS
MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 KT POSSIBLE. HIGH CLOUDS
WILL BUILD OVER THE AREA IN THE EVENING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND THERE
COULD BE A FEW SHOWERS LATE EVENING INTO EARLY SATURDAY, BUT VFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER STRONGER FRONT IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE AREA LATE
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, WHICH WILL LIKELY BRING SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS AND MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS.
MARINE
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE OCEAN N OF CAPE CHARLES AND BAY N OF SMITH POINT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH ELEVATED WINDS EXTENDING INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE
LOCAL WATERS LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS (~10 TO 15 KNOTS). A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, CROSSING THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCAS ARE LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. FOR THE MENTIONED LOCATIONS, WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT. FURTHER
SOUTH, CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL, WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOWING A
BRIEF WINDOW OF ~20 TO 30% SCA PROBS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ON SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT THEN ABRUPTLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
STRONG NORTHWARD SURGE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE INITIAL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE ~06Z/1 AM TIMEFRAME MONDAY MORNING, WITH
STRONG SCAS LIKELY AND BRIEF GUSTS >34 KT POSSIBLE. SCA- LEVEL WINDS
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
AIRMASS CHANGE (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10 C) OVER STILL-
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND GALE WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED AS SOON AS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
THEN FAVORS WINDS TURNING WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, POTENTIALLY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.
SEAS INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BENIGN
SEA STATE THEN RETURNS LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THIS MORNING. THE LATEST TIDAL
FORECASTS HAVE MOST TIDAL GAUGES JUST ABOVE -1 FT MLLW WITH THE NEXT
FEW LOW TIDES, WITH A FEW VULNERABLE LOCATIONS IN THE TIDAL JAME
RIVER AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST (E.G., SMITHFIELD AND
CHINCOTEAGUE) EXPECTED DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW -1 FT MLLW. OVERALL,
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW WATER, SO WILL
NOT BE ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR MDZ021-022-024.
NC...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ012>014-030.
VA...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ065-075-076-
079>085-087>090-092-093-096-512>522.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...MAM/NB
NEAR TERM...HET/NB
SHORT TERM...MAM/NB
LONG TERM...MAM/NB
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...AJB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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