337
FXUS61 KAKQ 071800
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
100 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
BRIEFLY COOLER TEMPERATURES THIS MORNING GIVE WAY TO MILDER,
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. A SECOND
COLD FRONT COULD BRING SOME SCATTERED LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS LATE
FRIDAY EVENING INTO SATURDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT, BRINGING IN SOME MUCH COLDER WEATHER TO THE REGION
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 955 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- MILD TODAY. SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH INCREASING CLOUDS IN THE
AFTERNOON.
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH
THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SHIFTED OFFSHORE THIS MORNING. SUNNY WITH
TEMPERATURES QUICKLY RISING THROUGH THE 50S, AFTER MORNING LOWS
THAT RANGED THROUGH THE 30S (LOCALIZED UPPER 20S). TEMPERATURES
WILL INCREASE TO THE MID 60 FOR MOST (UPPER 60S FOR SE VA/NE
NC) AS MODERATE SOUTHERLY FLOW DEVELOPS WITH THE HIGH NOW
OFFSHORE. BREEZY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON ARE EXPECTED WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20-25 MPH. DEWPOINTS WILL RISE DURING THE DAY, WHICH WILL
NEGATE ANY FIRE WX CONCERNS, DESPITE BREEZY CONDITIONS TODAY.
THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE PUSHED OFFSHORE DURING THE DAY, AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. THE FRONT IS PROGGED TO WEAKEN NEAR THE LOCAL AREA AS IT
APPROACHES, SO ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT WITH QPF
VALUES ONLY AOB 0.10" FOR THE AREA WITH THE PIEDMONT AND EASTERN
SHORE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE ANY ACCUMULATION. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
50S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 70S.
- REMAINING WARM ON SUNDAY, BECOMING BREEZY, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE.
BEHIND A WEAK FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO CAA, SATURDAY WILL BE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S FOR
MOST AND UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE FROM SW FLOW. OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL ALSO BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 40S IN THE PIEDMONT TO
UPPER 50S IN SE VA/NE NC. A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE
REGION SATURDAY NIGHT, WHICH COULD COULD RESULT IN A FEW PRE-FRONTAL
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY.
FUELED BY A STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES REGION, THE AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVES ACROSS THE
AREA LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE STRONGER THAN
THE PREVIOUS AND WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS TO THE AREA AHEAD OF
AND ALONG THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY, WITH THE MOST
LIKELY CHANCE IN THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. DESPITE THE
UNFAVORABLE TIMING OF ANY SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL AFTER SUNSET,
GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS, A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER CANNOT BE RULED
OUT DURING THIS TIME, AND THUS THUNDER WORDING HAS BEEN MAINTAINED.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE
LOWER TO MID 70S. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 240 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BEHIND A STRONG FRONT, SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S AND A HARD FREEZE LIKELY INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS LOOKING INCREASING LIKELY EARLY NEXT
WEEK. BEHIND THE AFOREMENTIONED STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT, DRY
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A FULL-
LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS -10C BY TUESDAY
MORNING AS A FRIGID CANADIAN AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTH INTO THE REGION.
CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE COLDEST AIR OF
THE SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY ARE EXPECTED TO BE
IN THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY (DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE
ON TUESDAY). WIDESPREAD BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER
20S TO LOWER 30S WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. WILL NOTE THAT THE 00Z/07 EPS AND GEFS
SHOW A FEW MEMBERS WITH POSSIBLE FLURRIES AS LINGERING PRECIP
MONDAY NIGHT MAY TRANSITION TO A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX. CONFIDENCE
IN THIS IS LOW AT THIS TIME.
THE TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY LIFT AWAY
FROM THE AREA TUESDAY, ALLOWING SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TO RETURN
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 100 PM EST FRIDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFFSHORE AS OF 18Z, WITH AN AREA OF
WEAK LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. VFR WITH A SSW WIND OF
8-12KT, WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO ~20KT AT RIC AND SBY. THE AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE SLIDES NE OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THROUGH 00Z.
THIS WILL BRING SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS TO ECG, ORF, AND PHF, WITH
A VERY MINIMAL CHC (< 20%) OF SHOWERS AT ECG. OTHERWISE, A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW TONIGHT, AND CROSSES THE AREA LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING INCREASING
CLOUDS, AND A 30-40% CHC OF SHOWERS FROM RIC TO SBY. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A SOUTHERLY WIND ~10KT.
A PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 06Z. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A WNW WIND OF 5-10KT SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE AFTN.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS, WITH A FEW
TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. DRY, VFR, AND BREEZY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS A
MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCAS ARE IN EFFECT FOR
THE OCEAN N OF CAPE CHARLES AND BAY N OF SMITH POINT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH ELEVATED WINDS EXTENDING INTO AT LEAST TUESDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, ~1023 MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE
LOCAL WATERS LEADING TO LIGHT WINDS. THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER
OFFSHORE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS, LEADING TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS (~10 TO 15 KNOTS). A DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATER THIS AFTERNOON, CROSSING THE WATERS TONIGHT INTO
EARLY SATURDAY. LOCAL WIND PROBS CONTINUE TO SUGGEST SCAS ARE LIKELY
FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AND COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES AS SOUTHWESTERLY LLJ OVERSPREADS THE
AREA. FOR THE MENTIONED LOCATIONS, WIND SPEEDS WILL AVERAGE 15 TO 25
KNOTS WITH GUSTS AS HIGH AS 30 KNOTS. SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT. FURTHER
SOUTH, CONDITIONS ARE MORE MARGINAL, WITH LOCAL WIND PROBS SHOWING A
BRIEF WINDOW OF ~20 TO 30% SCA PROBS OVER THE SOUTHERN CHESAPEAKE
BAY TONIGHT. WINDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AND BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
ON SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA
SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT THEN ABRUPTLY
PUSHES THROUGH THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
STRONG NORTHWARD SURGE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE INITIAL
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE ~06Z/1 AM TIMEFRAME MONDAY MORNING, WITH
STRONG SCAS LIKELY AND BRIEF GUSTS >34 KT POSSIBLE. SCA- LEVEL WINDS
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF
AIRMASS CHANGE (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10 C) OVER STILL-
RELATIVELY MILD WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY.
THIS POTENTIAL WILL BE MONITORED CLOSELY AND GALE WATCHES MAY BE
NEEDED AS SOON AS TONIGHT OR SATURDAY. THE CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS
THEN FAVORS WINDS TURNING WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, POTENTIALLY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.
SEAS INCREASE TO 4 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. A BENIGN
SEA STATE THEN RETURNS LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE INCREASING
AGAIN TO START THE WORK WEEK NEXT WEEK.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
WATER LEVELS REMAIN ON THE LOW SIDE THIS MORNING. THE LATEST TIDAL
FORECASTS HAVE MOST TIDAL GAUGES JUST ABOVE -1 FT MLLW WITH THE NEXT
FEW LOW TIDES, WITH A FEW VULNERABLE LOCATIONS IN THE TIDAL JAME
RIVER AND ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST (E.G., SMITHFIELD AND
CHINCOTEAGUE) EXPECTED DROP NEAR OR JUST BELOW -1 FT MLLW. OVERALL,
NOT ENOUGH COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE FOR WIDESPREAD LOW WATER, SO WILL
NOT BE ISSUING ANY ADDITIONAL ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 7 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-654.
SYNOPSIS...KMC/NB
NEAR TERM...AJZ/KMC
SHORT TERM...KMC/NB
LONG TERM...KMC/NB
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AJB/SW
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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