492
FXUS61 KAKQ 080109
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
809 PM EST FRI NOV 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 800 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING, WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THERE IS STILL A WEAK
SFC TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC, WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF NE NC AND SE VA THIS EVENING. FARTHER N AND W JUST HIGH
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE. THE LOW CLOUDS (AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG) WILL PERSIST IN THE SE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES, BUT WILL HAVE AN AREA WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NW,
WITH WITH A 30-50% CHC OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE RIC
METRO AND EASTERN SHORE. EVEN IN AREAS WITH THE HIGHER POPS, QPF
IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 0.10".
SHORT TERM /8 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 70S.
- REMAINING WARM SUNDAY, BECOMING BREEZY, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE LOWER
AND LOCALLY MID 70S INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A CHC OF
SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS. THUNDER CHANCES HAVE BEEN TEMPERED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S, WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN NE NC NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO
MID 40S SE AS COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BEHIND A STRONG FRONT, SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S AND A HARD FREEZE LIKELY INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
FULL-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS -10C BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A FRIGID CANADIAN AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY
(DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY). WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z/07
EPS AND GEFS SHOW A FEW MEMBERS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WITH LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR.
THE TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY LIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY, ALLOWING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 800 PM EST FRIDAY...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/ WARM FRONT IS SITUATED ACROSS EASTERN NC THIS
EVENING, BRINGING LOW CLOUDS TO SE PORTIONS OF THE FA. MVFR CIGS
PREVAIL AT ECG/ORF/PHF, WHILE JUST HIGH CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE
FARTHER N AND W. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY FOG
ALONG THE SFC TROUGH THROUGH MIDNIGHT, THEN SSW WINDS ARE
EXPECTED WHICH SHOULD ALLOW THE CLOUDS TO SCATTER OUT IN THE SE.
OTHERWISE, A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NW LATER TONIGHT,
AND CROSSES THE AREA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. THIS WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS, AND A 30-50% CHC OF SHOWERS FROM RIC TO SBY.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL WITH A SSW WIND ~10KT. A
PERIOD OF LLWS IS POSSIBLE AT RIC AND SBY A FEW HOURS EITHER
SIDE OF 06Z. THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE SATURDAY MORNING.
ANY LINGERING CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO CLEAR SATURDAY MORNING
WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING. A WNW WIND OF ~10KT SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE AFTN.
A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY.
THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION LATER
SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS, WITH A FEW
TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. DRY, VFR, AND BREEZY
MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 240 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SOUTHERLY WINDS INCREASE LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS
A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT FOR THE OCEAN N OF CAPE CHARLES AND BAY N OF WINDMILL
POINT.
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY, WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXTENDING EXPECTED
MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
AFTERNOON ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE WELL OFFSHORE WITH A COLD
FRONT EXTENDING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND OH VALLEY. SOUTHERLY
WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 10-15 KT AHEAD OF THIS FRONT, WITH GUSTS
APPROACHING 20 KT IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AND
MIDDLE-UPPER CHESAPEAKE BAY. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE
CURRENTLY IN EFFECT FOR THE BAY N OF WINDMILL PT. WIND SPEEDS
SHOULD INCREASE A FEW MORE KNOTS TO 15-25 KT LATER THIS EVENING
INTO TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES GO INTO EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS N OF CAPE
CHARLES LATER THIS EVENING. OVERALL, HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE HAS
TRENDED QUITE PESSIMISTIC WITH THESE HIGHER WINDS, THOUGH STILL
EXPECT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO AROUND 25 KT FOR ZONES IN THE
ADVISORY. BEHIND THE FRONT, WINDS WILL AGAIN DIMINISH AND BECOME
LIGHT AND VARIABLE ON SATURDAY. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT IS
EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
SOUTHERLY WINDS. THE FRONT THEN ABRUPTLY PUSHES THROUGH THE
WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A STRONG NORTHWARD
SURGE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE IN THE ~06Z/1 AM TIMEFRAME MONDAY MORNING, WITH STRONG
SCAS LIKELY AND BRIEF GUSTS >34 KT POSSIBLE. SCA- LEVEL WINDS
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF COLD AIR
ADVECTION ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE
OF AIRMASS CHANGE (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10 C) OVER
STILL-RELATIVELY MILD WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR
INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE HIGHEST PROBS ARE ON THE OCEAN, BUT ARE
ALSO POSSIBLE ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY. GALE WATCHES MAY BE ISSUED AS
SOON AS SATURDAY (DEPENDING ON MODEL TRENDS). WINDS TURN WEST
AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDWEEK PERIOD, POTENTIALLY REMAINING
AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS.
SEAS INCREASE TO 3 TO 6 FEET TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING, HIGHEST
N. IN THE BAY, WAVES INCREASE TO 2-3 FT. A BENIGN SEA STATE
THEN RETURNS LATER SATURDAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE INCREASING AGAIN
LATER SUNDAY AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ630-631.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652-
654.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...AJZ/LKB
MARINE...AJB/SW
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