071
FXUS61 KAKQ 080700
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
200 AM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TONIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA
EARLY SUNDAY, FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT.
THIS WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING.
MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF
THE COLD FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 8 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 800 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE, MAINLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE REGION.
AN UPPER TROUGH IS DIGGING ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST AND GREAT
LAKES THIS EVENING, WITH WSW FLOW ALOFT IN PLACE ACROSS THE
LOCAL AREA WELL OUT AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE. THERE IS STILL A WEAK
SFC TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS EASTERN NC, WITH LOW CLOUDS OVER MUCH
OF NE NC AND SE VA THIS EVENING. FARTHER N AND W JUST HIGH
CLOUDS ARE IN PLACE. THE LOW CLOUDS (AND PERHAPS SOME PATCHY
FOG) WILL PERSIST IN THE SE THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT, WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT
ELSEWHERE. IT WILL BE MUCH WARMER TONIGHT WITH LOWS RANGING
THROUGH THE 50S DUE TO AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER AND SOUTHERLY
FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT. MOISTURE DIMINISHES AS THE FRONT
ARRIVES, BUT WILL HAVE AN AREA WITH LIKELY POPS ACROSS THE NW,
WITH WITH A 30-50% CHC OF SHOWERS AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO THE RIC
METRO AND EASTERN SHORE. EVEN IN AREAS WITH THE HIGHER POPS, QPF
IS EXPECTED TO MOSTLY BE LESS THAN 0.10".
SHORT TERM /8 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH
TEMPERATURES REACH THE LOWER 70S.
- REMAINING WARM SUNDAY, BECOMING BREEZY, WITH A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT.
THERE WILL BE LITTLE TO NO CAA BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY.
THEREFORE, HIGHS SATURDAY WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES
RANGING FROM THE UPPER 60S OVER THE EASTERN SHORE, TO THE LOWER
AND LOCALLY MID 70S INLAND W AND SW OF THE CHES. BAY. INCREASING
CLOUDS SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND AS A
WARM FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THERE IS A CHC OF
SHOWERS LATE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER OF THE AREA. LOW
TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM MID 40S NW TO MID 50S SE.
LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES SUNDAY,
WHICH WILL DRAG THE WARM FRONT THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING.
THIS WILL BRING SOME SHOWERS. THUNDER CHANCES HAVE BEEN TEMPERED
FOR THIS TIME PERIOD AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS DEPICT LITTLE TO NO
INSTABILITY. A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W SUNDAY
AFTERNOON AND MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING. SCATTERED SHOWERS
ARE EXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO
THE EVENING, ESPECIALLY TOWARD THE COAST. A FEW RUMBLES OF
THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE GIVEN STRONG KINEMATICS. AHEAD OF THE
FRONT, SUNDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARM IN THE LOWER TO
MID 70S, WITH UPPER 70S TO NEAR 80F POSSIBLE IN NE NC NEAR THE
ALBEMARLE SOUND. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT DROP INTO THE UPPER 30S NW TO
MID 40S SE AS COOLER DRIER AIR ARRIVES FROM THE NW.
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 315 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- BEHIND A STRONG FRONT, SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE
ON THE HORIZON FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK, WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER
40S TO LOW 50S AND A HARD FREEZE LIKELY INLAND MONDAY NIGHT
AND POSSIBLY TUESDAY AS WELL.
- TEMPERATURES MODERATE FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF NEXT WEEK.
A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE IS EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK. DRY
AND MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A
FULL-LATITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH BUILDS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE CONUS. 850MB TEMPERATURES MAY DROP TO AS LOW AS -10C BY
TUESDAY MORNING AS A FRIGID CANADIAN AIRMASS SPILLS SOUTH INTO
THE REGION. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING THE
COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA. HIGHS ON MONDAY
ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE LOWER 50S WITH UPPER 40S ON TUESDAY
(DESPITE ABUNDANT SUNSHINE ON TUESDAY). WIDESPREAD BELOW
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S WILL LIKELY
OCCUR ACROSS THE MAJORITY OF THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY NIGHT. 12Z/07
EPS AND GEFS SHOW A FEW MEMBERS WITH POSSIBLE LIGHT RAIN/SNOW
SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES/FLURRIES WITH LINGERING PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF
DRY AIR.
THE TROUGH THAT BRINGS THE COLD TEMPERATURES WILL QUICKLY LIFT
AWAY FROM THE AREA TUESDAY, ALLOWING SEASONAL TEMPERATURES TO
RETURN WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S.
AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1245 AM EST SATURDAY...
A WEAK SFC TROUGH/WARM FRONT ACROSS THE AREA HAS BROUGHT LOW IFR
CLOUDS TO SOME TERMINALS. RIC/ORF/PHF ARE CURRENTLY SEEING THESE IFR
CONDITIONS, BUT THIS SHOULD LIFT BY 08Z/08 LEAVING VFR CONDITIONS
ACROSS ALL TERMINALS. A WEAK COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA FROM THE
NW WHICH WILL PUSH THE LOW CLOUDS OUT IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS AS
IT CROSSES THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. THIS FRONT WILL BRING
INCREASING CLOUDS AT VFR HEIGHTS AND A 30-50% CHC OF SHOWERS UNTIL
11Z/08 AT RIC AND SBY. THE FRONT WILL PUSH OFFSHORE BY LATE MORNING,
LEAVING FEW/SCT HIGH CLOUDS AND VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
WNW WINDS OF ~10KT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE NIGHT.
OUTLOOK: A WARM FRONT IS EXPECTED TO LIFT ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BRING A CHC OF SHOWERS WITH BRIEF SUB-VFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. A STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION
LATER SUNDAY AFTN AND EVENING BRINGING A CHC OF SHOWERS, WITH A FEW
TSTMS POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA AND NE NC. DRY, VFR, AND BREEZY MONDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 200 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXTENDING EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, A WARM FRONT IS DRAPED OVER THE WATERS AND A
COLD FRONT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NW. WINDS HAVE DECREASED FROM
EARLIER THIS EVENING, WITH S TO SW WINDS RANGING FROM 10 TO 15 KNOTS
OVER THE BAY AND 15 TO 20 KNOTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ALLOWED TO EXPIRE OVER THE CHESAPEAKE BAY BUT
REMAIN IN EFFECT OVER THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS UNTIL 7 AM. THE
COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS LATER THIS MORNING WITH WINDS BECOME W
TO NW IN ITS WAKE BUT REMAINING LIGHT/SUB-SCA DUE TO A LACK OF
SIGNIFICANT CAA. WINDS EVENTUALLY BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE LATER
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY
RETURNING AHEAD OF OUR NEXT (STRONGER) SYSTEM.
ANOTHER, MUCH STRONGER, COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY
BEFORE CROSSING THE WATERS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A
STRONG NORTHWARD SURGE IN WINDS IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE INITIAL COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE IN THE ~06Z/1 AM TIMEFRAME MONDAY AM, WITH STRONG
SCAS LIKELY AND BRIEF GUSTS >34 KNOTS POSSIBLE. SCA-LEVEL WINDS
LINGER THROUGH MOST OF MONDAY BEFORE A STRONGER PUSH OF CAA ARRIVES
MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DEGREE OF AIRMASS CHANGE (850
MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8 TO -10 C) OVER STILL-RELATIVELY MILD WATERS,
GALE CONDITIONS APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY. THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY
FOR GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE OCEAN, BUT ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (ESPECIALLY NEAR THE MOUTH/LOWER
BAY). GALE WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.
WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISH TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BUT STILL REMAIN NEAR
HIGH-END SCA. WINDS TURN WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST BY THE MIDWEEK
PERIOD, LIKELY REMAINING AT OR ABOVE SCA THRESHOLDS INTO THURSDAY.
SEAS OF 3 TO 5 FEET ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS MORNING, HIGHEST N. A
BENIGN SEA STATE THEN RETURNS LATER TODAY AND SUNDAY, BEFORE
INCREASING AGAIN LATER SUNDAY AND REMAINING ELEVATED THROUGH MOST OF
NEXT WEEK.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652-654.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/LKB
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...AJZ/KMC
AVIATION...KMC/LKB
MARINE...AJB/SW
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