423
FXUS61 KAKQ 082019
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
319 PM EST SAT NOV 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
A WEAK COLD FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION EARLY
THIS MORNING. A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA EARLY SUNDAY,
FOLLOWED BY A STRONG COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BRING A
CHANCE OF SHOWERS SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY EVENING. MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES ARRIVE EARLY NEXT WEEK IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD
FRONT.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/
AS OF 935 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY TODAY BEHIND A FRONT WITH WARM TEMPERATURES REACHING THE
LOWER 70S.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST THIS
MORNING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE HAS LIFTED INTO SOUTHEASTERN QB
WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT LAGGING BACK INTO EASTERN NC.
SUNNY THIS MORNING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH TEMPERATURES
WARMING THROUGH THE 60S. LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT LAST NIGHT RESULTED IN PRIMARILY LESS THAN 0.1" OF QPE,
AND GENERALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA.
BEHIND THE FRONT TODAY, TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER, AS THERE IS
LITTLE TO NO CAA BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS WILL BE ABOVE SEASONAL
AVERAGE IN THE UPPER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE, LOWER 70S FOR VA,
AND LOCALLY MID 70S IN NE NC. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT THIS MORNING
BEHIND THE FRONT, THEN INCREASE AGAIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON. A WARM
FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE
OVERNIGHT, PASSING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY MORNING. WITH THIS, RAIN
CHANCES WILL INCREASE OVERNIGHT TO 40-60%, ESPECIALLY IN THE SE.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL ADDITIONALLY BE WARMER THAN AVERAGE IN THE UPPER
40S IN THE PIEDMONT, LOWER 50S INLAND AND THE EASTERN SHORE, AND MID
50S IN SE VA/NE NC.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- REMAINING WARM ON SUNDAY, CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN THE MORNING FROM
WARM FRONT, THEN BECOMING BREEZY.
- SHARPLY COLDER TEMPERATURES USHER IN BEHIND A STRONG COLD FRONT
BEGINNING MONDAY WITH A HARD FREEZE LIKELY MONDAY NIGHT.
THE NEXT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL TRACK NE ACROSS THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES SUNDAY WHICH WILL DRAG THE AFOREMENTIONED WARM FRONT ACROSS
THE AREA IN THE MORNING. SHOWERS ARE LIKELY, MOVING IN A SW-NE
MOTION. A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SE, BUT THERE
IS LIMITED INSTABILITY, SO CHANCES REMAIN LOW. TEMPERATURES DURING
THE DAY SUNDAY WILL REACH THE LOWER 70S FOR AREAS NW AND MID 70S FOR
AREAS SE (UPPER 60S ON THE EASTERN SHORE). BEHIND THE WARM FRONT, A
STRONG COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
MONDAY MORNING. SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH THIS FRONT
SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS, ESPECIALLY TOWARDS THE
COAST. GIVEN THE STRONG KINEMATICS IN PLACE, THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDER SUNDAY NIGHT WITH FRONT. SPC HAS THE SE INCLUDED
IN A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER, ALTHOUGH THIS SEEMS TO BE
GENEROUS, AS INSTABILITY REMAINS RATHER WEAK DESPITE STRONG SHEAR.
SUNDAY'S LOWS WILL BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 40S.
BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT, A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN CHANGE WILL
LEAVE MONDAY IN A MUCH COLDER CANADIAN AIRMASS. A STRONG UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY WILL ONLY REACH THE LOWER 50S (DESPITE THE ABUNDANCE OF
SUNSHINE). OVERNIGHT A HARD FREEZE IS LIKELY, WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER
20 FOR MOST AND LOWER 30S ALONG THE COAST AND EASTERN SHORE. THE
00Z/08 ENSEMBLE RUNS CONTINUE TO HINT TOWARDS A LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX
OR A FEW FLURRIES POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY, BUT THE DRY
AIR MASS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL HAVE TO BECOME MORE SATURATED FOR
THIS TO OCCUR. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW AT THIS TIME.
LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 245 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- COOLER TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TUESDAY WITH NEAR FREEZING LOW
TEMPERATURES.
- DRY WEATHER AND MODERATE TEMPERATURES FOR THE MIDDLE TO END OF
NEXT WEEK.
THE STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT WILL BRING THE CHILLY CANADIAN
AIRMASS WILL BEGIN WEAKENING LATE TUESDAY, BUT NOT BEFORE ANOTHER
COLD DAY ON TUESDAY. HIGHS WILL ONLY REACH THE UPPER 40S, EVEN WITH
CLEAR SKIES. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE NEAR FREEZING INLAND AND MID 30S
ALONG THE COAST. THEN, THE TROUGH WILL LIFT AWAY FROM THE AREA AND
WEAKEN CAUSING A STARK CONTRAST IN TEMPERATURES BETWEEN TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. SEASONAL TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN FOR MID TO LATE WEEK
WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER
30S/LOWER 40S. DRY WEATHER WILL PERSIST INTO LATE WEEK AS SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE AREA.
AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 115 PM EST SATURDAY...
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS PASSING ACROSS THE REGION AS OF 18Z.
MOSTLY SUNNY AND VFR WITH A LIGHT GENERALLY WNW WIND, ALTHOUGH
LOCALLY VARIABLE. CLOUDS INCREASE BY THIS EVENING AS HIGH
PRESSURE SLIDES OFFSHORE, BUT REMAINING VFR. A WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING BRINGING
SHOWERS, AND POTENTIALLY A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER. CIGS DROP TO
MVFR AFTER 09/09Z, AND QUICKLY TO IFR/LIFR AT MOST SITES AFTER
10-11Z. REDUCED VSBY IS ALSO EXPECTED IN HEAVIER RAIN. CIGS LIFT
LATER SUNDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTN AS THE WARM FROM LIFTS N OF
THE REGION WITH VFR CONDITIONS RETURNING. THE WIND BECOMES SSW
8-12KT WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 20KT. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHC
OF SHOWERS AT RIC LATER IN THE AFTN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W.
THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING A
20-30% CHC OF SHOWERS, AND A FEW TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS SE VA
AND NE NC. A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST
EARLY MONDAY. OTHERWISE, BECOMING DRY, VFR, AND BREEZY MONDAY.
THERE IS A SLIGHT CHC OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY
NIGHT WITH AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM, BUT CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN
VFR. VFR/DRY TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY WITH BREEZY CONDITIONS
DURING THE AFTN HOURS.
MARINE
AS OF 315 PM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT IMPACTS THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY,
WITH ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS EXTENDING EXPECTED MONDAY INTO THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.
- GALE CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FOR AT LEAST THE COASTAL WATERS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
WINDS ARE LIGHT (5-10KT) THIS AFTERNOON AND VARY IN DIRECTION BEHIND
THE WEAKER COLD FRONT THAT PASSED OVER THE WATERS EARLIER TODAY.
SEAS ARE 2-3FT AND WAVES ARE 1FT OR LESS. WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT
AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE EVENING AND THE FIRST HALF OF THE NIGHT.
WINDS TURN TO THE SE AND PICK UP JUST A TAD TO AROUND 10KT LATE
TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN MORNING. WINDS GRADUALLY TURN TO THE SW
THROUGH THE DAY SUN AT 10-15KT. ANOTHER, MUCH STRONGER, COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE WATERS ON SUNDAY BEFORE CROSSING THE WATERS LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. A FEW SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WITH
THE FRONT MAY BE HAVE GUSTY WINDS. THE INITIAL NW SURGE BEHIND THE
FRONT LOOKS TO BE 15-20KT EARLY MONDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY
MON AND WILL LIKELY REQUIRE SCAS.
GIVEN THE DEGREE OF AIRMASS CHANGE (850 MB TEMPS DROPPING TO -8
TO -10 C) OVER STILL-RELATIVELY MILD WATERS, GALE CONDITIONS
APPEAR INCREASINGLY LIKELY LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. BASED
ON LOCAL WIND PROBS, THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR GALE CONDITIONS
CONTINUES TO BE OVER THE OCEAN (60-80%), BUT ARE ALSO POSSIBLE
ON THE CHESAPEAKE BAY (20- 30%), PARTICULARLY NEAR THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY. DID NOT ISSUE GALE WATCHES WITH THIS PACKAGE SINCE THE
ONSET TIME IS STILL ROUGHLY 60 HOURS OUT, BUT WATCHES ARE LIKELY
TO GO UP TONIGHT. WESTERLY WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED THROUGH
TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING SLIGHTLY
IN THE EVENING. SCAS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST INTO THE MID-WEEK
PERIOD WITH 20-25KT WINDS.
SEAS INCREASE TO 4-5FT EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THEN AGAIN TO 4-6FT BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. OFFSHORE WIND DIRECTION SHOULD KEEP HIGHEST SEAS
CLOSER TO 20NM OUT. SEAS DROP BELOW 5FT LATER IN THE WEEK. WAVES IN
THE BAY WILL BE 1-2FT SUNDAY, 2-3FT MONDAY, AND 3-5FT TUESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...AJZ/KMC
NEAR TERM...AJZ/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJZ/KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...AC
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