570
FXUS61 KAKQ 071146
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
646 AM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
WIDESPREAD FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH MID MORNING.
PRIMARILY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TODAY. LOW PRESSURE
OFFSHORE AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT BRINGS THE CHANCE FOR
SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES
INCREASING WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT FOR MOST OF THE AREA UNTIL 9AM.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED NEAR THE REGION EARLY THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS SHOW WIDESPREAD FOG AND
LOW STRATUS OVER NEARLY THE ENTIRE CWA. TEMPERATURES ARE BELOW
FREEZING FOR ALL BUT THE FAR SE CORNER (NE NC AND COASTAL SE VA).
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9AM WITH A DENSE FOG
ADVISORY UNTIL 9AM FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA. EXPECT
VISIBILITIES TO IMPROVE THROUGH THE MORNING BUT LOW STRATUS MAY BE
TOUGH TO DISLODGE ONCE AGAIN TODAY. WILL BE OPTIMISTIC AND SHOW SOME
CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPS WILL DEPEND HEAVILY ON CLOUD COVER
SO HAVE GONE BELOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S NW
TO THE UPPER 40S SE. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE LATE, ALLOWING
WINDS TO BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE S.
A DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TONIGHT WITH INCREASING
NORTHERLY WINDS MOVING INTO THE REGION AFTER MIDNIGHT. LOW TEMPS
DIP INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH MID AND
UPPER 30S SE.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- POTENTIAL IS INCREASING FOR AN IMPACTFUL SNOW EVENT ACROSS MAINLY
THE SW HALF OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
- DRY AND COLD TUESDAY.
LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA COAST EARLY MONDAY. ALOFT, A
SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE LOCAL AREA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE
AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. 00Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
TREND WETTER VS PREVIOUS RUNS WITH FORECAST QPF NOW >0.1" FOR AREAS
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE US-460 CORRIDOR WITH 0.15-0.25" NEAR AND
SOUTH OF THE VA/NC BORDER. THESE VALUES MAY STILL BE ON THE
CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH 00Z DETERMINISTIC GFS/ECMWF GENERALLY SHOWING
UP TO 0.2" OF QPF AS FAR NORTH AS US-460 AND INTO THE NORFOLK METRO
WITH HIGHER VALUES TO THE SOUTH. HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
SUPPLY A GOOD FEED OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE REGION, SO HAVE GONE
BELOW THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AND SHOW TEMPS HOLDING ROUGHLY STEADY IN
THE MORNING AND THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. MODELS ARE
IN DECENT AGREEMENT SHOWING PRECIP SPREADING EAST FROM THE
PIEDMONT IN THE MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING QPF,
00Z ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND UPWARD WITH RESPECT TO
SNOW PROBABILITIES WITH BOTH THE GEFS AND ENS/AIFS ENS SHOWING
60-80% CHANCES FOR SNOW >1" OVER THE SOUTHWEST CWA. THE GEPS IS
EVEN A BIT HIGHER WITH 80-100% PROBS FOR >1". PROBS FOR >3" ARE
LOWER BUT THESE ARE TRENDING UPWARD WITH EACH ITERATION AS
WELL. STILL NOT CONVINCED THAT THIS EVENT WILL RISE TO THE LEVEL
OF WINTER STORM WATCH/WARNING (4+" IN 12 HOURS) BUT GIVEN THE
TRENDS, CANNOT RULE OUT WARNING-LEVEL ACCUMULATIONS SOMEWHERE IN
THE SW CWA EITHER. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALSO ARGUE FOR SNOW TO
LIQUID RATIOS TO BE HIGHER THAN 10:1, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SHOW SATURATION OR SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE IN THE
DGZ SO EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW OR PERHAPS A
BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET. THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH COLDER AIR TAKING LONGER TO ARRIVE. IF
MOISTURE CAN LINGER OVER THESE AREAS INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON OR
AFTER SUNSET, ACCUMULATING SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE. FOR NOW, WILL
SHOW THE HIGHEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS GENERALLY FROM FARMVILLE
EASTWARD ALONG US-460 TO I-95 AND POINTS SOUTH.
VERY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN
THE MID TEENS WEST OF I-95 WITH UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW/MID 20S TO
THE EAST. CONTINUED COLD TUESDAY WITH SOME AREAS LIKELY NOT WARMING
OUT OF THE 30S DEPENDING ON SNOW COVER.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/
AS OF 300 AM EST SUNDAY...
- MILDER WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
- ANOTHER FRONT CROSSES THE REGION LATE IN THE WEEK WITH COLDER
TEMPS AND PRECIP POTENTIAL.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THAT
MIDWEEK SHOULD BE MILDER AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES ACROSS
CENTRAL CANADA, WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.
THIS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW WED, WITH HIGHS INTO
THE 50S FOR MOST. REMAINING RELATIVELY MILD WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY,
WITH INCREASING RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE NEXT
SYSTEM IMPACTS THE REGION. PRECIP POTENTIALLY CHANGES OVER TO A
RAIN/SNOW MIX BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY AND
COLD AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 645 AM EST SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD LIFR/VLIFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE OVER THE ENTIRE AREA
EARLY THIS MORNING. FREEZING FOG ADVISORY INCLUDES RIC, SBY,
ECG, AND PHF WITH ORF IN A DENSE FOG ADVISORY, BOTH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 14Z. VSBY HAS IMPROVED A BIT AT ORF OVER THE LAST HOUR BUT
NOT CONFIDENT IT WILL CONTINUE. CIGS ARE ALSO IN THE TANK WITH
WIDESPREAD OVC002 OR VV002. LATEST GUIDANCE KEEPS LIFR CIGS IN
PLACE THROUGH THE MORNING WITH ONLY SLOW IMPROVEMENT THIS
AFTERNOON. GOING THE PESSIMISTIC ROUTE GIVEN HOW PERSISTENT THE
IFR CIGS WERE YESTERDAY. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS THIS MORNING
PERSIST UNTIL VERY LATE TONIGHT WHEN A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES
THE AREA, BRINGING INCREASING NORTHERLY WINDS.
OUTLOOK: ANOTHER SYSTEM ON MONDAY MAY BRING DEGRADED FLIGHT
CONDITIONS AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW, ESPECIALLY TO THE S
TERMINALS.
MARINE
AS OF 220 AM EST SUNDAY...
- MARINE DENSE FOG ADVISORY IN EFFECT THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE,
BENIGN MARINE CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER ROUND OF SCAS EXPECTED EARLY MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING, AS A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS.
A PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY, WITH THE
BEST CHANCE OVER THE COASTAL ZONES AND INTO THE MOUTH OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING DEGRADED MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE
AREA WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE LOCAL WATERS FROM
THE WEST THIS MORNING. OBS AND BUOY REPORTS AS OF THIS WRITING
REVEAL W-NW WINDS ~5 KT IN THE RIVERS AND BAY, 5-10 KT JUST
OFFSHORE. WAVES OF AROUND 1 FT IN THE BAY, RIVERS AND SOUND,
WITH SEAS 2-3 FT NORTH, 3-4 FT SOUTH. CURRENTLY NOTING AREAS OF
FOG OVER THE WATERS, AND A MARINE DENSE FOG ADVY IS IN EFFECT
THROUGH MID-MORNING FOR THE BAY AND EASTERN VA RIVERS. LIGHT
AND VARIABLE WINDS CONTINUE THIS MORNING, WITH LIGHT WINDS
VEERING AROUND TO THE W-SW THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. WAVES
REMAIN AROUND 1 FT AND SEAS SUBSIDING TO 2-3 FT ALONG THE
COASTAL ZONES.
MARINE CONDITIONS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO RAPIDLY DETERIORATE
EARLY MONDAY MORNING. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH A STRONG
COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING. WINDS WILL INCREASE SHARPLY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT,
AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SKIRTS NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST. THE PAST FEW SUCCESSIVE RUNS OF THE CAMS HAVE BEEN
STRONGER AND CLOSER TO THE COAST WITH THE LOW, WITH THE
RESULTANT TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT RESULTING IN AN INCREASED
CHANCE OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IN POST-FRONTAL CAA. IT DOES LOOK
INCREASINGLY LIKELY THAT A 6-10 HOUR PERIOD OF GALE- FORCE
GUSTS ACCOMPANIES THE INITIAL PUSH OF THIS DRIER, COLDER AIR
PUSHING INTO THE REGION, ALONG WITH SOME RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS.
STILL LOWER CONFIDENCE WITH REGARD TO THE EXACT DURATION OF
GALE FORCE GUSTS, BUT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE FOR THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN COASTAL ZONES SOUTH OF WACHAPREAGUE, AS WELL AS
THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND THE MOUTH OF THE CHES BAY, TO ADD A GALE
WATCH FOR MONDAY. HAVE RUN THE HEADLINE FROM MID- MORNING
MONDAY THROUGH MIDNIGHT MONDAY/EARLY TUESDAY. FOR THE REMAINING
ZONES, WHILE A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE FORCE GUSTS IS POSSIBLE,
THEY APPEAR BRIEF ENOUGH TO HANDLE WITH SMWS AS NEEDED, AND
THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE DURATION OF
THE EVENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE TO EXTEND OUT A BIT FARTHER
OUT, AS WEAK CAA LINGERS INTO THE DAY ON TUESDAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA, AND ALSO AS SEAS LINGER AOA 5
FT.
WINDS DIMINISH TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT, BUT RAMP BACK UP
AGAIN EARLY WED AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION. ANOTHER
STRONG COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE BRINGS ANOTHER PERIOD OF STRONG SCA
TO LOW-END GALES BY FRIDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AS WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY, WAVES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 3-5 FT
IN THE BAY (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND SEAS WILL
BUILD TO 6-9 FT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. DESPITE AN EXPECTED
GRADUAL DOWNTREND IN WINDS TUESDAY, SEAS WILL BE SLOWER TO
SUBSIDE, AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR JUST BRIEFLY DROP BELOW
SCA CRITERIA BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN WITH THE SECOND WIND SURGE
FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
MDZ021>025.
NC...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
VA...FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ048-
060>062-064>069-075>090-092-093-096-097-099-509>524.
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR VAZ095-098-
100-525.
MARINE...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ630>632-
634>638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-650-652.
GALE WATCH FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING FOR
ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ635>638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB/RHR
NEAR TERM...RHR
SHORT TERM...RHR
LONG TERM...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...RHR
MARINE...MAM/NB
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