161
FXUS61 KAKQ 080249
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
949 PM EST SUN DEC 7 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT BRINGS
THE CHANCE FOR SNOW TO MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE AREA
ON MONDAY. MAINLY DRY FOR TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY, WITH SHOWER
CHANCES INCREASING WITH THE NEXT COLD FRONT LATE IN THE WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 945 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FREEZING FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL VA
OVER TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN VA.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO INCLUDE MUCH OF THE AREA
(EXCLUDING MARYLAND).
WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL
VIRGINIA (INCLUDING THE RICHMOND METRO) OVER TO SURRY, SUSSEX,
AND SURRY COUNTIES. FORECAST SNOW AMOUNTS CONTINUE TO TREND
HIGHER WITH THE 18Z/07 MODEL SUITES, AS WELL AS THE INITIAL
RUNS OF THE 00Z/08 SUITE. CONFIDENCE IS GROWING FOR A SNOW
ACCUMULATION BAND OF 3-5"+ CENTERED NEAR/ALONG THE US-60/460
CORRIDORS IN CENTRAL VA. STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH EASTERN
EXTENT OF THE WARNING, AND IT IS VERY WELL POSSIBLE THAT
LOCATIONS SUCH AS NEW KENT AND JAMES CITY COUNTY, OVER TO
POTENTIALLY GLOUCESTER COUNTY MAY ALSO NEED TO BE ADDED TO THE
WARNING. SOME OF THE INITIAL 00Z MODEL RUNS (PARTICULARLY THE
NAM) WANT TO PUSH THOSE 3"+ AMOUNTS FURTHER TO THE EAST. FINALLY
THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY WAS EXPANDED TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ON THE THIS UPDATE. STAY TUNED AS WE WILL HAVE
A FULL UPDATE OVERNIGHT.
IN ADDITION, ANOTHER FREEZING FOG ADVISORY WAS ISSUED TONIGHT
FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN COUNTIES. VISBILITIES ARE DOWN TO ~1/4 SM
WITH TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING FOR THESE LOCATIONS. A COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA AROUND 09Z, WHICH SHOULD HELP TO IMPROVE
THE FOG SITUATION.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION:
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE IS CURRENTLY CENTERED ACROSS THE VA COASTAL
PLAIN THIS AFTN, WITH LOW PRESSURE ALONG THE GULF COAST. A WSW
FLOW PREVAILS ALOFT. LOW CLOUDS AND FOG FINALLY DISSIPATED OVER
MOST OF THE AREA EARLY THIS AFTN, ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
INTO THE LOW-MID 40S, THOUGH IT REMAINS OVERCAST AND IN THE 30S
ACROSS THE NORTHERN PIEDMONT. FOR TONIGHT, LIGHT WIND AND A
VARIABLY CLOUDY SKY THIS EVENING WILL TEND TO PROMOTE SOME QUICK
COOLING AFTER SUNSET WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR PATCHY FOG LATER IN
THE EVENING, MAINLY INLAND. IT WILL NOT BE NEARLY AS WIDESPREAD
AND OF THE DURATION WHICH OCCURRED LATE LAST NIGHT AND THIS
MORNING SINCE NORTHERLY WINDS BEGIN TO INCREASE AFTER MIDNIGHT
IN THE WAKE OF A DRY COLD FRONT. LOW TEMPS DIP INTO THE UPPER
20S TO LOW 30S FOR MOST SPOTS WITH MID AND UPPER 30S NEAR THE
COAST IN THE FAR SE.
THE LATEST 12Z/07 MODEL SUITE CONTINUES TO TREND STRONGER WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR A SIGNIFICANT WINTER WEATHER EVENT FOR MUCH OF
THE REGION ON MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OFF THE CAROLINA
COAST EARLY MONDAY. ALOFT, A SHORT WAVE TROUGH TRAVERSES THE
LOCAL AREA MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHICH WILL PROVIDE
ENOUGH LIFT FOR PRECIP ACROSS AT LEAST THE SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO
THIRDS OF THE AREA. 12Z GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO TREND WETTER VS
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH FORECAST QPF NOW VARYING FROM 0.20-0.40"
OVERALL. STRONG (~1030 MB) SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH WILL
REMAIN FAVORABLY LOCATED ACROSS NY STATE TO SUPPLY A GOOD FEED
OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE REGION, SO WENT A LITTLE COLDER THAN
THE BLENDED GUIDANCE AND SHOW TEMPS HOLDING ROUGHLY STEADY IN
THE MORNING AND THEN FALLING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THERE ARE
SOME NOTABLE MODEL DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE HIGHEST
SNOWFALL AND QPF AMOUNTS, WHICH YIELDS UNCERTAINTY IN THE
FORECAST- THE RAP/HRRR ARE A LITTLE NORTH OF THE CONSENSUS WITH
RESPECT TO HEAVIER SNOW AND HIGHER QPF WHICH WOULD SUGGEST 3-4"
SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ALONG AND EVEN TO THE N OF I-64. IN CONTRAST,
THE ENS/GEFS/GEPS AND DETERMINISTIC ECMWF, GFS, CMC ARE FARTHER
SOUTH, WITH THE HIGHEST PROBS FOR SEEING 3-4" OR MORE OF
SNOWFALL ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL AND INTERIOR SE VA. CONFIDENCE IS
RATHER HIGH FOR 1-2"+ ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA SO WENT PRIMARILY
WITH WINTER WX ADVISORIES, WITH A SMALL WATCH AREA ALONG AND S
OF ROUTE 460 AND W OF I-95 IN SOUTH CENTRAL VA WHERE PROBS FOR
>3" ARE WELL OVER 50%. VERY COLD TEMPS ALOFT ALSO ARGUE FOR
SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS TO BE HIGHER THAN 10:1, ESPECIALLY IN THE
AFTERNOON AS COLD ADVECTION STRENGTHENS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW
SATURATION OR SUPERSATURATION WITH RESPECT TO ICE IN THE DGZ SO
EXPECT MOST OF THE PRECIP TO FALL AS SNOW OR PERHAPS A BRIEF
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT THE ONSET. THE FAR SE PORTION OF THE AREA
REMAINS PROBLEMATIC WITH COLDER AIR TAKING LONGER TO ARRIVE.
GIVEN THE UPWARD TRENDS, INCLUDED MOST OF METRO NORFOLK IN AN
ADVISORY, BUT LEFT OUT VA BEACH AND CURRITUCK NC WHERE THE
WARMER AIR HANGS ON THE LONGEST.
SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST SUNDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SNOW ENDING MON NIGHT, THEN DRY AND COLD TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY
MILDER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY.
VERY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION MONDAY NIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS
IN THE MID TEENS WEST OF I-95 WITH UPPER TEENS TO THE LOW/MID
20S TO THE EAST. INLAND WINDS DROP OFF BY TUE AM SO NOT
ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO BE MUCH BELOW ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES. CONTINUED COLD TUESDAY WITH MOST INLAND AREAS
LIKELY NOT WARMING OUT OF THE 30S, WITH LOW 40S IN THE SE. NOT
AS COLD TUE NIGHT, AND TURNING MILDER WED AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
AMPLIFIES ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA, WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASING SW LOW
LEVEL FLOW WED, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 345 PM EST SUNDAY...
- TRENDING COOLER THURSDAY, WITH LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY
- DRY, BUT COLD NEXT WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE LATER WEEK TIMEFRAME TRENDS COLDER WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION. PRECIP POTENTIALLY CHANGES OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND COLD AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NW.
AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 645 PM EST SUNDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL OF THE TAF SITES TO START OFF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. MOST OF THE GUIDANCES SUGGESTS FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS RETURN WITH LOW STRATUS AND FOG AFTER ~03Z,
ESPECIALLY ACROSS INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. IFR
CIGS (AND/OR FOG) MAY TRY TO WORK INTO RIC ~06Z. AS THE COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA, AND NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AFTER
MIDNIGHT, AND ESPECIALLY APPROACHING DAYBREAK MONDAY, IT IS
EXPECTED THAT FOG WILL DISSIPATE (PRIOR TO 12Z), THOUGH MVFR TO
IFR CIGS PROBABLY CONTINUE. ON MONDAY, NNE WINDS INCREASE AND
BECOME RATHER STRONG ALONG THE COAST (GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AT
ORF), WITH WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE.
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATER MORNING,
BRINGING IFR TO LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT WILL THEN LAST
THROUGH THE LATE AFTN/EARLY EVENING. RIC AND PHF SHOULD SEE
MAINLY SNOW FROM THIS EVENT, BUT ORF/ECG ARE LIKELY TO SEE A
PERIOD WITH -RA BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE AFTN,
WITH SNOW AS THE MAIN P-TYPE MONDAY EVENING FOR ANY REMAINING
PRECIP THAT WILL LINGER ALONG THE COAST. SBY MAY ALSO SEE A
PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON, BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED
TO THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES.
OUTLOOK: DRYING OUT, BUT NNE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT THE COAST
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VFR, WITH DIMINISHING WINDS TUE AFTN,
THEN WINDS BECOME SW ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 300 PM EST SUNDAY...
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR MONDAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS
SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND MOUTH
OF THE CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN THE
REMAINING WATERS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY BRING DEGRADED MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ELEVATED WINDS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS THIS AFTERNOON,
WHICH HAS RESULTED IN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS. MARINE OBSERVATION
SITES ARE MEASURING WINDS OF AROUND 5 KTS AND WAVES OF LESS THAN 1
FT IN THE BAY AND SEAS RANGING BETWEEN 2-3 FT IN THE OCEAN. MARINE
CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY DETERIORATE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY
MORNING AS A COLD FRONT DROPS THROUGH THE AREA. WINDS WILL QUICKLY
INCREASE AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH
THAT WILL BE BUILDING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION AND AN AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT WILL BE SKIRTING NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST.
WITH THE TIGHTENED GRADIENT IN PLACE, COMBINED WITH EXCEPTIONAL CAA
EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, STRONG TO NEAR-GALE FORCE WINDS
ARE FORECAST FOR ALL COASTAL WATERS. GUIDANCE HAS KEPT THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, SO HAVE
UPGRADED THE GALE WATCH TO A GALE WARNING FOR THESE COASTAL WATERS,
AS WELL AS THE CURRITUCK AND THE MOUTH OF THE BAY. ALL OTHER WATERS
WILL SEE HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS FOR THE EVENT. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
A BRIEF PERIOD OF GALE-FORCE GUSTS ACCOMPANYING AT LEAST THE INITIAL
PUSH OF THIS DRIER, COLDER AIR IN WATERS OUTSIDE OF THE GALE
WARNING, THOUGH THESE SHORT DURATION GUSTS WILL LIKELY BE ABLE TO BE
COVERED BY SPECIAL MARINE WARNINGS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY, AND WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH IN RESPONSE. THIS
REPRIEVE FROM WINDS WILL BE FLEETING AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES
THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY
MORNING AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE REGION AND STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. THE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS SIGNIFICANTLY AND THE IN-HOUSE PROBS FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS FOR WIND GUSTS >=34 KTS RANGE BETWEEN 50% TO NEAR
100% (HIGHEST FARTHER OFFSHORE BETWEEN 15-20 NM). PROBS FOR
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 34 KTS OR GREATER REMAIN RELATIVELY LOW, MAXING
OUT AROUND 20% IN THE NORTHERN WATERS. AS THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW
LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL
DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS
PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION BY LATE WEEK, BRINGING POSSIBLY
ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
AS WINDS INCREASE ON MONDAY, WAVES WILL RAPIDLY BUILD TO 3-5 FT IN
THE BAY (HIGHEST AT THE MOUTH OF THE BAY) AND SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-9
FT IN THE OCEAN (HIGHEST IN THE SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS). WITH THE
NORTHEASTERLY WIND DIRECTION DURING THE DAY TOMORROW, THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WAVE HEIGHTS MAY ACTUALLY BE SLIGHTLY UNDER DONE. DESPITE AN
EXPECTED DOWNTREND IN WINDS LATE MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY, SEAS
WILL BE SLOWER TO SUBSIDE AND WILL LIKELY REMAIN NEAR OR JUST
BRIEFLY DROP BELOW SCA CRITERIA BEFORE BUILDING AGAIN WITH THE
SECOND WIND SURGE FORECAST FOR WEDNESDAY. WITH SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
AND SHIFTING TO A WSW DIRECTION BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, FORECAST
WAVE HEIGHTS GENERALLY RANGE BETWEEN 4-7 FT IN THE COASTAL WATERS
(MAY BRIEFLY REACH 8FT IN THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS) AND 3-4 FT IN
THE BAY. SEAS WILL DROP BRIEFLY BELOW SCA CRITERIA BY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON BEFORE TRENDING UPWARDS AGAIN BY LATE WEEK INTO THE
WEEKEND.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
NCZ012>014-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-031-032.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM TO 10 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ084-086-090-092-093-096-099-523>525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST
MONDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ095-097-098-100.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ048-060>062-
064-067>069-509>511.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ048-062-064-065-075>078-083-085-509>512-517>522.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 6 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR VAZ060-
061-066>069-079>082-513>516.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM TO 6 PM EST MONDAY FOR
VAZ087>089.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 AM MONDAY TO MIDNIGHT EST MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ANZ635>638.
SYNOPSIS...LKB
NEAR TERM...AJB/LKB
SHORT TERM...LKB/RHR
LONG TERM...LKB/RHR
AVIATION...AJB/LKB
MARINE...MAM/NB
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