627
FXUS61 KAKQ 080926
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
426 AM EST MON DEC 8 2025
SYNOPSIS
LOW PRESSURE AND A PASSING DISTURBANCE ALOFT BRINGS THE CHANCE
FOR SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY, WITH THE HEAVIEST SNOW
LOOKING TO OCCUR ALONG AND JUST SOUTH OF I-64. DRYING OUT AND
BECOMING MUCH COLDER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY. MILDER WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY, WITH SHOWER CHANCES INCREASING WITH THE NEXT STRONG
COLD FRONT NEXT WEEKEND.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- FREEZING FOG ADVISORY NOW IN EFFECT FOR OUR NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES EARLY THIS MORNING.
- WINTER STORM WARNINGS NOW IN EFFECT FOR MUCH OF CENTRAL VA
OVER TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN VA.
- WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES EXPANDED TO INCLUDE THE REMAINDER OF
THE AREA.
EARLY MORNING IR/WV IMAGERY REVEALS BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING
OVER THE EAST COAST, WITH A PAIR OF EMBEDDED H5 TROUGHS PUSHING
TOWARD THE AREA IN W-SW FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE, LOW
PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN TN VALLEY AND ITS ASSOCIATED STRONG
SURFACE COLD FRONT CROSS THE AREA LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT,
BRINGING MARKEDLY COLDER AIR AND ANOTHER ROUND OF WINTRY PRECIP
TO THE REGION.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT, FOG HAS DEVELOPED ONCE AGAIN ACROSS THE
PIEDMONT AND IS ONCE AGAIN DIMINISHING VISIBILITIES BELOW 1/2SM
IN FZFG. A FREEZING FOG ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
PIEDMONT. ALONG THE NC COASTAL PLAIN, VISIBILITIES HAVE ALSO
DIMINISHED TO LOCALLY 1SM OR LESS, AND A DENSE FOG ADVISORY IS
IN EFFECT. IN BOTH CASES, EXPECT FOG TO SCATTER OUT QUICKLY
AFTER THE FRONT CROSSES INTO THE AREA AROUND OR JUST AFTER
SUNRISE. WE'LL NEED TO CONSIDER A SHORT AREAL EXTENSION TO COVER
THE REST OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH SUNRISE, AND WILL DO THAT
SHORTLY.
OF COURSE, THE BIGGEST WEATHER CHALLENGE OF THE DAY IS THE
IMPENDING WINTRY WEATHER. STRONG (~1030 MB) SFC HIGH PRESSURE
TO THE NORTH WILL REMAIN FAVORABLY LOCATED ACROSS NY STATE TO
SUPPLY A GOOD FEED OF COLD/DRY AIR INTO THE REGION TODAY.
MEANWHILE THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND ITS
ASSOCIATED SFC LOW, SWING EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TODAY,
PUSHING OFFSHORE TONIGHT, PROVIDING AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT.
THIS WILL PROMOTE A SWATH OF PRECIP CROSSING AT LEAST THE
SOUTHERN HALF TO TWO THIRDS OF THE AREA. THE 00Z MODEL SUITE
CONTINUED TO HONE IN ON A NARROW BAND OF HIGHER QPF EMBEDDED
WITHIN THIS REGIME OF BROAD WAA/OVERRUNNING MOISTURE. OVERALL,
TAKING STRONG CAA AND THE ARRIVING MOISTURE INTO ACCOUNT, IT IS
EASY TO SEE WHY MODELS ARE BECOMING INCREASINGLY AGGRESSIVE WITH
SNOW TOTALS FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY. QPF HAS TIGHTENED
UP A BIT WITH THIS MODEL SUITE, AND IS NOW VARYING FROM AROUND
0.10" ACROSS THE FAR NORTHERN TIER OF THE LOCAL AREA, WITH A
BULLS-EYE OF 0.20-0.40" OVERALL ENCOMPASSING MAINLY THE US-60
AND US-460 CORRIDORS IN CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL VA.
GIVEN THE STRONG CAA THAT WILL COME QUICKLY ON THE HEELS OF THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE, CONTINUED TO UNDERCUT NBM BY A FEW DEGREES,
CLOSER TO A TIME-LAGGED HRRR/NAM 3KM LOOK, WITH YIELDS A THERMAL
PROFILE THAT HOLDS TEMPS MORE OR LESS STEADY THIS MORNING, THEN
FALLING AS BEST SLUG OF OVERRUNNING MOISTURE ARRIVES THIS
AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION BEGINS AS SNOW ACROSS THE PIEDMONT, AND
A LIGHT RAIN- SNOW MIX ALONG THE I-95 CORRIDOR AND POINTS
EASTWARD. DYNAMICAL COOLING WILL TAKE OVER FROM THERE,
FACILITATING A VERY QUICK PROGRESSION TO PRIMARILY SNOW FROM NW
TO SE IN THE 8-10 AM PERIOD INLAND, REACHING THE COAST BY EARLY
AFTERNOON AND SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS AND NE NC BY THE START OF
THE EVENING COMMUTE TIME.
IN TERMS OF HEADLINES: WINTER STORM WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXPANDED
SLIGHTLY TO THE E-SE INTO THE PENINSULA AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHSIDE HAMPTON ROADS. GIVEN THE AFOREMENTIONED QPF, AND COLD
TEMPERATURES ALOFT THAT SHOULD OUTRUN STANDARD 10:1 RATIOS,
ESPECIALLY LATE MORNING AND AFTERNOON AS CAA STRENGTHENS, HAVE
TRENDED SNOW TOTALS A BIT HIGHER INTO THE 3-5" RANGE FOR THE
NARROW CORRIDOR THAT SWINGS FROM US-60/I-64 SOUTH/SOUTHEAST TO
US-460. AS IS OFTEN THE CASE, THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THE WARNING. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME LOCALLY
HIGHER TOTALS OCCUR FROM HANOVER TO KING WILLIAM/GLOUCESTER
COUNTY, WITH THE SAME ALSO TRUE FOR MECKLENBURG COUNTY FARTHER
TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER, ON AN AREAL AVERAGE BASIS, EXPECT THESE
COUNTIES REMAIN MORE OR LESS IN THE 2-3" RANGE, AND WILL KEEP
THE WINTER WX ADVISORY IN PLACE THERE AND FOR ALL COUNTIES
LOCALLY THAT ARE NOT IN THE WINTER STORM WARNING, WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE MD LOWER EASTERN SHORE AND COASTAL CURRITUCK
COUNTY (NC).
VERY COLD AIR MOVES INTO THE REGION TONIGHT WITH LOW TEMPS IN
THE LOW TO MID TEENS WEST OF I-95 WITH UPPER TEENS TO THE
LOW/MID 20S TO THE EAST. INLAND WINDS DROP OFF BY TUE AM, SO
NOT ANTICIPATING WIND CHILLS TO BE MUCH BELOW ACTUAL AIR
TEMPERATURES.
SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 250 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY AND COLD TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY SHORT-LIVED MILDER
TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY.
CONTINUED COLD TUESDAY WITH MOST INLAND AREAS LIKELY NOT
WARMING OUT OF THE 30S, WITH LOW 40S IN THE SE. NOT AS COLD TUE
NIGHT, AND TURNING MILDER WED AS A DEEP UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES
ACROSS CENTRAL CANADA, WITH LOW PRESSURE TRACKING THROUGH THE
GREAT LAKES. THIS ALLOWS FOR AN INCREASING SW LOW LEVEL FLOW
WED, WITH HIGHS INTO THE 50S FOR MOST.
LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 250 AM EST MONDAY...
- TRENDING COOLER THURSDAY, WITH LOW-END PRECIP CHANCES FRIDAY,
POSSIBLY ENDING AS SOME WINTRY PRECIP.
- DRY, BUT AGAIN TURNING SHARPLY COLDER NEXT WEEKEND.
MEDIUM RANGE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES REMAIN IN DECENT AGREEMENT
THAT THE LATER WEEK TIMEFRAME TRENDS COLDER WITH INCREASING
RAIN CHANCES THURSDAY NIGHT/FRIDAY AS THE NEXT SYSTEM IMPACTS
THE REGION. PRECIP POTENTIALLY CHANGES OVER TO A RAIN/SNOW MIX
BEFORE ENDING FRIDAY NIGHT. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS DRY AND COLD AS
ANOTHER ARCTIC COLD FRONT CROSSES SAT, ONCE AGAIN USHERING IN
COLD HIGH PRESSURE FROM THE NW.
AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 1235 AM EST MONDAY...
FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT MOST TERMINALS EARLY THIS MORNING WITH VIS
DROPPING DOWN TO 2-4SM, WITH PHF SEEING TEMPORARY LOWER VIS.
FZFG IS ALSO LIKELY, ESPECIALLY INLAND. A COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO CROSS THE AREA SHORTLY CAUSING NORTHERLY WINDS TO INCREASE
LATER IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD, BUT ESPECIALLY APPROACHING
DAYBREAK. FOG SHOULD START TO DISSIPATE AFTER THE PASSAGE,
GENERALLY AFTER 9-10Z, THOUGH MVFR TO IVF CIGS WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE. DURING THE DAY TODAY, NNE WINDS INCREASE AND BECOME
RATHER STRONG ALONG THE COAST (GUSTING TO 25-30 KT AT ORF), WITH
WINDS 10-15 KT WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 KT ELSEWHERE. PRECIPITATION
IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA BY LATER MORNING, BRINGING IFR TO
LIFR FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS THAT WILL THEN LAST THROUGH THE EARLY
EVENING. RIC AND PHF SHOULD SEE MAINLY SNOW FROM THIS EVENT, BUT
ORF/ECG ARE LIKELY TO SEE A PERIOD WITH -RA BEFORE CHANGING
OVER TO SNOW LATER IN THE AFTN, WITH SNOW AS THE MAIN P-TYPE
MONDAY EVENING FOR ANY REMAINING PRECIP THAT WILL LINGER ALONG
THE COAST. SBY MAY ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF SNOW MONDAY AFTERNOON,
BUT LOWER CONFIDENCE COMPARED TO THE REMAINDER OF THE SITES.
OUTLOOK: RAIN/SNOW CHANCES GRADUALLY COME TO AN END WEST TO EAST
AT THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD, BUT NNE WINDS REMAIN BREEZY AT
THE COAST THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. VFR, WITH DIMINISHING WINDS
TUE AFTERNOON, THEN WINDS BECOME SW ON WEDNESDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 250 AM EST MONDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE WARNING IS IN EFFECT TODAY FOR THE COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND, INCLUDING THE CURRITUCK SOUND AND MOUTH OF THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY, WITH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES IN EFFECT IN THE
REMAINING WATERS.
- ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL BRING DEGRADED MARINE CONDITIONS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT, FOLLOWED BY ADDITIONAL ELEVATED WINDS
BY THE END OF THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATES HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT
WINDS PERSISTING ACROSS THE WATERS, BUT THAT WILL CHANGE VERY
SHORTLY AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA. WINDS WILL TURN N/NE AFTER
4AM AND INCREASE IN SPEED AS DAYBREAK APPROACHES AS THE GRADIENT
TIGHTENS BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NORTH AND AN
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEAST OFF THE CAROLINA COAST. THAT
GRADIENT COMBINED WITH CAA BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ALLOW WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25KT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS, WITH GUSTS TO 30 KT BY
LATE MORNING/MID-DAY. RIVERS WILL SEE WINDS OF 15-20KT WITH GUSTS TO
25 KT. THUS, SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING. FOR COASTAL WATERS SOUTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND, THE MOUTH OF
THE BAY, AND CURRITUCK SOUND, GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW HIGHER
SPEEDS AS THE LOW PASSES NEARBY. NE WINDS OF 25-30KT WITH GUSTS TO
35-40KT ARE EXPECTED, WARRANTING A GALE WARNING FOR THESE WATERS.
THIS IS IN EFFECT FROM 9AM THROUGH MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. A FEW GALE-
FORCE GUSTS CAN'T BE RULED OUT OUTSIDE OF THE WARNING, ESPECIALLY
FOR THE COASTAL ZONE FROM CHINCOTEAGUE TO PARRAMORE ISLAND, BUT IT
WILL BE A SHORT ENOUGH DURATION TO USE SMWS TO COVER IF NECESSARY.
WAVES IN THE BAY TODAY WILL INCREASE TO 3-4FT, WITH 4-5FT IN THE
MOUTH OF THE BAY. SEAS WILL BUILD TO 6-7FT NORTH AND 7-9FT ACROSS
THE SOUTH.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE WATERS LATER MONDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY ALLOWING THE WINDS TO QUICKLY DIMINISH. GALES AND WIND-
DRIVEN SCAS WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE BY DAYBREAK TUESDAY. SOUTHERN
WATERS MAY NEED A LINGERING SCA INTO PART OF TUESDAY FOR 5FT SEAS.
SW WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGH THE DAY BEFORE THEY INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS ACROSS THE AREA AND A STRONG LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM ADVANCES NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. WINDS
WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN INTO THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. LOCAL WIND
PROBABILITIES HAVE A 60-95% CHANCE FOR WIND GUSTS >=34KT FOR THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND (HIGHEST FARTHER OFFSHORE
BETWEEN 15-20NM). WITH 40-60% FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES.
STRONGEST WINDS LOOK TO BE MID/LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. SOLID SCAS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST OF THE
WATERS, WITH GALES POSSIBLE IN THE AFOREMENTIONED ZONES. EXPECT
WAVES IN THE BAY TO BECOME 3-4FT AGAIN WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 5-7FT
(HIGHEST NORTH). AS THE LOW PRESSURE LIFTS WELL NORTH OF THE AREA ON
THURSDAY AFTERNOON, WINDS WILL DIMINISH TO 10-15 KTS THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. YET ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE REGION BY
LATE WEEK, BRINGING POSSIBLY ANOTHER ROUND OF STRONG TO NEAR-GALE
CONDITIONS TO THE AREA.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
NCZ012>017-030>032.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR NCZ012>014-030.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR NCZ015>017-031-032.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM EST
THIS EVENING FOR VAZ084-086-096-099-525.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT
EST TONIGHT FOR VAZ095-097-098-100.
FREEZING FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
VAZ048-060>062-064-067>069-079-080-087-509>511.
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ048-
062-064-065-075>078-085-509>512-517>522.
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ060-
061-066>069-079>083-513>516.
WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 6 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR VAZ087>090-092-093-523-524.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ630>632-650-
652.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 AM THIS MORNING TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
FOR ANZ633-634-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR ANZ635>638.
SYNOPSIS...MAM
NEAR TERM...LKB/MAM
SHORT TERM...LKB/MAM
LONG TERM...LKB/MAM
AVIATION...AJB/JKP
MARINE...JKP
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