336
FXUS61 KAKQ 161928
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
228 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2025
SYNOPSIS
A NOTICEABLE MODERATING TEMPERATURE TREND CONTINUES THROUGH
EARLY FRIDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS A GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND,
WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- NOT AS COLD AND MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT.
- DRY WITH INCREASING CLOUDS WEDNESDAY.
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC INTO THE
SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST STATES THIS AFTERNOON. MODEST WARM
ADVECTION IS ONGOING, ALLOWING LOW-LEVEL THICKNESSES AND SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO REBOUND SOME. HOWEVER, WE ARE STILL QUITE
CHILLY WITH TEMPS RANGING THROUGH THE LOWER-MID 40S. VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY STILL SHOWS SOME SNOW COVER OVER THE LOWER MD
EASTERN SHORE, WHICH IS AT LEAST PARTIALLY RESPONSIBLE FOR THE
COOLER TEMPS (UPPER 30S) UP THAT WAY. OTHERWISE, SKIES ARE CLEAR
AND WINDS ARE LIGHT. A FAST- MOVING TROUGH ALOFT WILL SLIDE
THROUGH THE AREA LATER TONIGHT, ALLOWING FOR A BRIEF UPTICK IN
SW WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. THIS, COMBINED WITH SOME
INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS, MAY PREVENT THE NEAR-SURFACE LAYER FROM
TOTALLY DECOUPLING TONIGHT. LOW TEMPS MAY THUS BE REALIZED
EARLY ON THIS EVENING, WITH TEMPS LEVELING OFF OR INCREASING A
FEW DEGREES BY SUNRISE WEDNESDAY. REGARDLESS, STILL ON THE
CHILLY SIDE WITH LOWS IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S (MID 20S
POSSIBLE INTERIOR MD EASTERN SHORE).
STILL LOOKING MILDER FOR WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPS TOPPING OUT IN THE
50S. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE SFC
REFLECTION MOST APPARENT ON THE MODELS ACROSS NRN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT FROM THIS WILL LIKELY JUST BE INCREASED CLOUD
COVER, ESPECIALLY LATER IN THE DAY.
SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY, WITH RAINFALL AMOUNTS TRENDING UP.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS BY THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ADVANCING ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE LATTER OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR WET WEATHER AND
GUSTY WINDS LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY IS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS A RESIDUAL CAD SETUP MAY LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, POTENTIALLY
KEEPING THESE AREAS COOLER. FOR NOW, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS ON THE
WARMER SIDE, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IN
CASE ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE
SE, THERE IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S.
BY LATER THURSDAY, A STRONG LOW (LIKELY SUB-985 MB) WILL BE SITUATED
UP NEAR LAKE SUPERIOR, WITH A THE (STRONG) TRAILING COLD FRONT
EXTENDING THROUGH THE OH AND TN VALLEYS. THERE IS ALSO DECENT
AGREEMENT THAT THE SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE MAY ENHANCE THE PRE-
FRONTAL PRECIPITATION FIELD THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AS
A STRONG SSW LOW-LEVEL JET (925 MB WINDS OF 60+ KNOTS) OVERSPREADS
THE AREA. OVERALL, RAINFALL AMOUNTS HAVE TRENDED UPWARD WITH THIS
FORECAST CYCLE WITH AERIAL AMOUNTS OF 0.5-1". LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
IN EXCESS OF 1" ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT. IT'S CURRENTLY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE
HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR, BUT CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
SE WHERE MUCAPE (WHILE NEGLIGIBLE) WILL BE HIGHEST. THE OTHER
THING TO WATCH FOR WILL BE THE WINDS. WITH THE LLJ AND PRESSURE
FALLS PEAKING IN THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD THURSDAY ABOVE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION, IT REMAINS UNKNOWN IF SOME OF THESE HIGHER WINDS
WILL BE ABLE TO MIX DOWN TO THE SFC. THIS WOULD BE MORE LIKELY
IF A FORCED CONVECTIVE LINE DEVELOPS, WHICH WOULD AID IN
DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER. SPC MENTIONS SOME LOW-END SEVERE
THREAT IS POSSIBLE IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS REALIZED, BUT THIS
IS A BIG IF AT THIS POINT. THE NAM IS CURRENTLY THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS POTENTIAL, BUT WILL ALSO MONITOR OTHER
MODELS AS THEY COME INTO RANGE. AT THIS POINT, WILL HAVE WIND
GUSTS OF 25-30 MPH OVERNIGHT IN THE FORECAST, WITH THE CAVEAT
THAT THEY COULD TREND HIGHER. THE PRE-FRONTAL ACTIVITY CLEARS
THE AREA IN THE MORNING, WITH THE ACTUAL FRONT LIKELY MOVING
THROUGH A COUPLE HOURS LATER (CURRENT MODEL CONSENSUS HAS THIS
HAPPENING AROUND SUNRISE FRIDAY). OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY NIGHT WILL NOT FOLLOW A TYPICAL DIURNAL TREND, INSTEAD
INCREASING SOME AFTER MIDNIGHT AS LOW-LEVEL THETA-E INCREASES IN
ADVANCE OF THE FRONT.
TRENDING COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD
ADVECTION CAUSES TEMPS TO FALL A FEW DEGREES; THE "HIGHS" SHOWN IN
THE FORECAST LIKELY OCCUR NEAR SUNRISE FRIDAY. WINDS BECOME QUITE
GUSTY (TO ~30 MPH) OUT THE W FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT
AND SURFACE HEATING CREATE QUITE THE WELL-MIXED BOUNDARY LAYER.
SKIES ALSO CLEAR FROM W TO E AS DRIER AIR FILTERS IN.
LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY MILD
ON SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- TRENDING MILDER AGAIN AS WE HEAD INTO NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT. A BIT CHILLIER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE MID 40S TO AROUND 50F. BRIEFLY MILDER WX IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (WHICH APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME). TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR SEASONAL AVERAGES ON
MONDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT. NO BIG STORM SYSTEMS ARE ON THE HORIZON
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. ADDITIONALLY, WHILE DAY-TO-DAY
DETAILS WILL NEED TO IRONED OUT, THERE IS INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A
PROLONGED WARMER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1240 AM EST TUESDAY...
VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE 18Z TAF PERIOD. SKC THIS AFTERNOON
INTO TONIGHT, WITH A MODEST INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS BECOME S-SW 5-10 KT TONIGHT
AND 10-15 KT LATER WEDNESDAY MORNING.
OUTLOOK: VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, IS THURSDAY NIGHT- FRIDAY AM DUE TO
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER JAMES,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY N OR NE 5-10 KT OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT
OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
SW 10-15 KT. WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY SW 15-20 KT IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES AND 15-25 KT FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ISSUED SCAS FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 18Z/1PM
IN THE JAMES/BAY AND 00Z THURSDAY OFFSHORE. WAVES INCREASE TO 2-3 FT
DURING THIS PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
ZONES (MAINLY 2-4 FT SOUTH OF PARRAMORE). THE WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND CROSSES THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS BULLISH, SHOWING GALE CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB IN 6
HOURS ARE INDICATED ON THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO MEET/EXCEED
GALE THRESHOLDS IN A WAA REGIME WITH COLD WATER TEMPERATURES, BUT
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS >10MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME
THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. GALE PROBS REMAIN
QUITE HIGH (50-70% OFFSHORE) AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL LET THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NEED FOR A PRE-FRONTAL GALE
WATCH. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. PRESSURE RISES ARE OF
SIMILAR CALIBER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WITH NO CONCERNS FOR A NEAR-
SURFACE STABLE LAYER. GALE PROBS ARE CURRENTLY LOWER IN THE POST-
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION REGIME BUT SUSPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS WILL COME DURING THIS PERIOD. WAVES INCREASE TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER IN THAT RANGE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVES BUILD TO 5-8 FT N AND 4-7 FT S THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY
MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...RHR
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