117
FXUS61 KAKQ 170708
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
208 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
STATES, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S (LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MD EASTERN SHORE). SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR,
THOUGH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS MAY SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK, DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT SW BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY
OR EVEN RISING AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
SLIDING OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION MOST APPARENT ON THE
MODELS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. TODAY
WILL BE MILDER COMPARED TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S (A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE). TONIGHT WILL SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND (UPPER 20S OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE) TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.50" TO 1.00" (LOCALLY HIGHER).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ADVANCING ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE LATTER OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR WET WEATHER AND
GUSTY WINDS LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY IS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS A RESIDUAL CAD SETUP MAY LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, POTENTIALLY
KEEPING THESE AREAS COOLER. FOR NOW, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS ON THE
WARMER SIDE, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IN CASE
ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE SE, THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE ACHIEVED IN MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF OF THE AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, PWATS SURGE TO 1.25" TO 1.50"+ WHICH ARE 200%+ HIGHER THAN
TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER VALUES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF HAS
TRENDED UPWARDS ON RECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE RUNS, WITH A WIDESPREAD
0.50" TO 1.00" OF RAIN NOW EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.00" ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT. IT'S CURRENTLY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR, BUT CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WHERE
MUCAPE (WHILE NEGLIGIBLE) WILL BE HIGHEST. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
LLJ RAMPING UP TO 50-60 KNOTS. GUSTY S/SW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY STRONGER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT IF ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN COMING TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING, WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY AS COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 20S (INLAND) WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY MILD ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- TRENDING MILDER AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA. A BIT CHILLIER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. BRIEFLY MILDER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (WHICH APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME) WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60F SOUTH. TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT. NO BIG STORM SYSTEMS
ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. ADDITIONALLY,
WHILE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS WILL NEED TO IRONED OUT, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A MILDER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 06Z/17
TAF PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL GIVE WAY TO SCT-BKN UPPER
LEVEL CLOUD DECKS BY THIS AFTERNOON AFTERNOON, BUT NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THIS EARLY MORNING, FOLLOWED BY A GRADUAL INCREASE
LATER THIS MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20
KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL CLOUD
COVER WILL REMAIN WITH US INTO TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: THE NEXT CHANCE OF SUB-VFR CONDITIONS, ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW-LEVEL WIND SHEAR, IS THURSDAY NIGHT-FRIDAY
AM DUE TO SHOWERS AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. VFR AND MAINLY
DRY WEATHER WILL RETURN LATER FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
MARINE
AS OF 220 PM EST TUESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN ISSUED FOR THE LOWER JAMES,
CHESAPEAKE BAY, AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND
WEDNESDAY.
- A STRONGER COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY AND
CROSSES THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH GALE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT.
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE IS OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WITH ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT. WINDS ARE GENERALLY N OR NE 5-10 KT OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS. WAVES ARE AROUND 1 FT IN THE BAY WITH SEAS AROUND 2 FT
OFFSHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE TRANSLATES OFFSHORE TONIGHT, ALLOWING WINDS TO BECOME
SW 10-15 KT. WINDS INCREASE A BIT MORE AROUND SUNRISE ON WEDNESDAY,
MAINLY SW 15-20 KT IN THE BAY AND LOWER JAMES AND 15-25 KT FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS. ISSUED SCAS FOR THESE AREAS UNTIL 18Z/1PM
IN THE JAMES/BAY AND 00Z THURSDAY OFFSHORE. WAVES INCREASE TO 2-3 FT
DURING THIS PERIOD. SEAS BUILD TO 3-5 FT FOR OUR NORTHERN ATLANTIC
ZONES (MAINLY 2-4 FT SOUTH OF PARRAMORE). THE WEAK FRONT CROSSES THE
WATERS WEDNESDAY EVENING WITH MINIMAL COLD ADVECTION EXPECTED BEHIND
THE BOUNDARY. ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO A STRONGER FRONT THAT
APPROACHES THE REGION THURSDAY EVENING AND CROSSES THE AREA ON
FRIDAY. 12Z GUIDANCE REMAINS BULLISH, SHOWING GALE CONDITIONS AHEAD
OF THE FRONT. IMPRESSIVE PRESSURE FALLS ON THE ORDER OF 10-12MB IN 6
HOURS ARE INDICATED ON THE GFS AND NAM SOLUTIONS. SOME UNCERTAINTY
REMAINS REGARDING THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE WINDS TO MEET/EXCEED
GALE THRESHOLDS IN A WAA REGIME WITH COLD WATER TEMPERATURES, BUT
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS >10MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME
THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR SURFACE STABLE LAYER. GALE PROBS REMAIN
QUITE HIGH (50-70% OFFSHORE) AHEAD OF THE FRONT. WILL LET THE
OVERNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT THE NEED FOR A PRE-FRONTAL GALE
WATCH. THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON FRIDAY WITH STRONG COLD
ADVECTION EXPECTED, ESPECIALLY AFTER SUNSET. PRESSURE RISES ARE OF
SIMILAR CALIBER BEHIND THE FRONT BUT WITH NO CONCERNS FOR A NEAR-
SURFACE STABLE LAYER. GALE PROBS ARE CURRENTLY LOWER IN THE POST-
FRONTAL COLD ADVECTION REGIME BUT SUSPECT THE MORE WIDESPREAD STRONG
WINDS WILL COME DURING THIS PERIOD. WAVES INCREASE TO 3-5 FT IN THE
BAY THURSDAY NIGHT AND LINGER IN THAT RANGE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
MORNING. WAVES BUILD TO 5-8 FT N AND 4-7 FT S THURSDAY NIGHT AND
FRIDAY BEFORE WINDS TURN OFFSHORE AND SEAS BEGIN TO SUBSIDE SATURDAY
MORNING.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ650-652.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RHR
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