368
FXUS61 KAKQ 171110
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
610 AM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY DRIFTS OFFSHORE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
STATES, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S (LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MD EASTERN SHORE). SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR,
THOUGH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS MAY SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK, DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT SW BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY
OR EVEN RISING AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
SLIDING OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION MOST APPARENT ON THE
MODELS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. TODAY
WILL BE MILDER COMPARED TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S (A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE). TONIGHT WILL SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND (UPPER 20S OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE) TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.50" TO 1.00" (LOCALLY HIGHER).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ADVANCING ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE LATTER OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR WET WEATHER AND
GUSTY WINDS LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY IS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS A RESIDUAL CAD SETUP MAY LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, POTENTIALLY
KEEPING THESE AREAS COOLER. FOR NOW, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS ON THE
WARMER SIDE, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IN CASE
ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE SE, THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE ACHIEVED IN MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF OF THE AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, PWATS SURGE TO 1.25" TO 1.50"+ WHICH ARE 200%+ HIGHER THAN
TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER VALUES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF HAS
TRENDED UPWARDS ON RECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE RUNS, WITH A WIDESPREAD
0.50" TO 1.00" OF RAIN NOW EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.00" ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT. IT'S CURRENTLY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR, BUT CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WHERE
MUCAPE (WHILE NEGLIGIBLE) WILL BE HIGHEST. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
LLJ RAMPING UP TO 50-60 KNOTS. GUSTY S/SW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY STRONGER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT IF ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN COMING TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING, WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY AS COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 20S (INLAND) WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY MILD ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- TRENDING MILDER AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA. A BIT CHILLIER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. BRIEFLY MILDER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (WHICH APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME) WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60F SOUTH. TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT. NO BIG STORM SYSTEMS
ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. ADDITIONALLY,
WHILE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS WILL NEED TO IRONED OUT, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A MILDER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/
AS OF 610 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THE 12Z/17
TAF PERIOD. SCT TO BKN HIGH CIRRUS WILL PASS OVERHEAD LATER THIS
MORNING INTO TONIGHT. WINDS BE OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST, AVERAGING
~10 KNOTS. OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 15-20 KTS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THE EARLY EVENING (ESPECIALLY AT RIC, SBY, AND ORF). WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY (MVFR TO IFR) LATER
THURSDAY EVENING TO FRIDAY MORNING DUE TO LOW CIGS AND REDUCED
VSBYS DUE TO RAIN AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT. LLWS WILL ALSO
BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AT ALL SITES. VFR AND MAINLY DRY
WEATHER WILL RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS
REMAIN GUSTY OUT OF THE NW ON FRIDAY.
MARINE
AS OF 230 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND TODAY.
- A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST, EXTENDING ACROSS INLAND PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHEAST.
WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING WERE SW 10-15 KT. THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
INCREASES BETWEEN A STRONG LOW WELL NORTH OF THE GREAT LAKES IN
CANADA AND THE HIGH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW SW WINDS TO INCREASE TO 15-20 KT LATER THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND. MEANWHILE, WAVES AND SEAS
OF 1-2 FT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY BUILD TO 2-3 FT AND 3-5 FT
RESPECTIVELY LATER TODAY. AS SUCH, SCAS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE
CHES BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. HOWEVER, WILL NOTE THAT CONFIDENCE HAS DECREASED IN SCA
CONDITIONS BEING REALIZED, PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE LOWER JAMES
RIVER. SCAS END BY 1 PM ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND LOWER JAMES RIVER
AND 7 PM ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS. WINDS DIMINISH THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE BECOMING LIGHT AND VARIABLE TONIGHT AS A WEAK COLD FRONT
DROPS SOUTH.
WINDS BECOME SE THU AS THE FRONT LIFTS BACK N AS A WARM FRONT AHEAD
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE
GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THU INTO FRI, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS FRI. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN GALE
CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF
PARRAMORE ISLAND. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS HAVE INCREASED HERE TO
60-90%+ THU NIGHT. AS SUCH (AND IN COLLABORATION WITH NEIGHBORING
OFFICES), HAVE ISSUED A GALE WATCH FOR THU NIGHT THROUGH EARLY FRI
NIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GALE POTENTIAL BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
STRONG COLD FRONT. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE SOUTHERLY GALES ARE UNCOMMON
THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER HINDERING
MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS, LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT
PRESSURE FALLS >10MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR-
SURFACE STABLE LAYER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW 10-12MB 6 HOUR HEIGHT
FALLS AND ~10MB HEIGHT FALLS RESPECTIVELY ACROSS THIS AREA,
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS. WILL
NOTE THAT WHILE WIND PROBS ARE TECHNICALLY LOWER FOR THE NW SURGE
BEHIND THE FRONT, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW (POTENTIALLY <980MB)
AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH CAA OVER THE LOCAL WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO
WAA), CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING, WHICH IS WHY THE GALE WATCH COVERS BOTH
SURGES EVEN THOUGH THERE COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN SURGES.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE LOW.
HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO
CAPE CHARLES LIGHT THU NIGHT (WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS AVERAGED
AROUND 50%). OTHERWISE, THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS THE
POTENTIAL FOR LOW-END GALE CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE CURRENT
GALE WATCH (INCLUDING THE CHES BAY), HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW
TO EXPAND THE WATCH ANY FARTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA WANES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS DUE
TO SW WINDS OF 15-25 KT IS POSSIBLE SAT EVENING INTO EARLY SUN.
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N
COASTAL WATERS TODAY, SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THU. SEAS
QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-9 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6
FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...RMM
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