393
FXUS61 KAKQ 171938
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
238 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS
TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE SOUTHEAST US
STATES, EXTENDING NORTHWARD INTO THE LOCAL AREA. TEMPERATURES THIS
MORNING ARE GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S (LOW TO MID 20S
ACROSS THE INTERIOR MD EASTERN SHORE). SKIES ARE MAINLY CLEAR,
THOUGH A FEW HIGHER CLOUDS MAY SNEAK IN FROM THE WEST AS A WEAK, DRY
COLD FRONT APPROACHES. THE APPROACHING FRONT WILL ALSO ALLOW FOR A
LIGHT SW BREEZE TO DEVELOP THIS MORNING, KEEPING TEMPERATURES STEADY
OR EVEN RISING AS WE HEAD TOWARDS SUNRISE.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE AREA THIS MORNING BEFORE SLOWLY
SLIDING OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON-EVENING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
ALSO MOVE THROUGH, WITH THE SURFACE REFLECTION MOST APPARENT ON THE
MODELS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE
INCREASING MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUD COVER, ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY. TODAY
WILL BE MILDER COMPARED TO WHAT IT HAS BEEN RECENTLY WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S (A FEW DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE). TONIGHT WILL SEE
LOW TEMPERATURES FALL BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S INLAND (UPPER 20S OVER
INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE) TO THE UPPER 30S CLOSER
TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY
MORNING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.50" TO 1.00" (LOCALLY HIGHER).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ADVANCING ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE LATTER OF
THESE FEATURES WILL BE THE MOST RESPONSIBLE FOR WET WEATHER AND
GUSTY WINDS LATER THURSDAY INTO EARLY FRIDAY AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. THE FORECAST FOR THE FIRST PART OF
THURSDAY IS ON THE TRICKY SIDE AS A RESIDUAL CAD SETUP MAY LINGER
OVER PORTIONS OF THE PIEDMONT THROUGH MOST OF THE DAY, POTENTIALLY
KEEPING THESE AREAS COOLER. FOR NOW, THE BLENDED GUIDANCE IS ON THE
WARMER SIDE, BUT WILL NEED TO MONITOR TRENDS IN THE GUIDANCE IN CASE
ANY DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS ARE NEEDED. MEANWHILE, ACROSS THE SE, THERE
IS HIGHER CONFIDENCE IN TEMPS WARMING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER
60S.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
FRIDAY MORNING. AHEAD OF THE FRONT, STRONG WAA/SOUTHERLY FLOW IS
EXPECTED, WITH MANY AREAS SEEING RISING OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES AS A
RESULT. HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE ACHIEVED IN MANY LOCATIONS,
ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF OF THE AREA, DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. IN
ADDITION, PWATS SURGE TO 1.25" TO 1.50"+ WHICH ARE 200%+ HIGHER THAN
TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER VALUES. THIS WILL SET THE STAGE FOR A PERIOD
OF MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THURSDAY NIGHT. QPF HAS
TRENDED UPWARDS ON RECENT MODEL/ENSEMBLE RUNS, WITH A WIDESPREAD
0.50" TO 1.00" OF RAIN NOW EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.00" ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE
ENHANCEMENT. IT'S CURRENTLY TOO EARLY TO PINPOINT WHERE THESE HIGHER
AMOUNTS COULD OCCUR, BUT CURRENTLY MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SE WHERE
MUCAPE (WHILE NEGLIGIBLE) WILL BE HIGHEST. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT DUE TO A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT AND A
LLJ RAMPING UP TO 50-60 KNOTS. GUSTY S/SW WINDS OF 25-35 MPH WILL BE
POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST, BUT A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION
SHOULD HELP TO KEEP ANY STRONGER GUSTS FROM MIXING DOWN. IT SHOULD
BE NOTED THAT IF ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP, A FEW
STRONGER GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.
THE FRONT CLEARS THE AREA BY MID FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN COMING TO
AN END FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES CLEAR OUT QUICKLY BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED AREAWIDE BY EARLY FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT WITH W/NW WINDS GUSTING TO
25 TO 35 MPH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR THE DAY
WILL LIKELY OCCUR FIRST THING IN THE MORNING, WITH FALLING
TEMPERATURES LATER IN THE DAY AS COLDER/DRIER AIR FILTERS BACK INTO
THE AREA. LOW TEMPERATURES DROP BACK INTO THE 20S (INLAND) WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES FRIDAY NIGHT.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY MILD ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- TRENDING MILDER AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA. A BIT CHILLIER ON SATURDAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE MID 40S
NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S SOUTH. BRIEFLY MILDER WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ON
SUNDAY IN ADVANCE OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT (WHICH APPEARS TO BE MAINLY
DRY AT THIS TIME) WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE LOW-MID 50S NORTH TO
AROUND 60F SOUTH. TEMPS DROP BACK DOWN TO NEAR/SLIGHTLY BELOW
SEASONAL AVERAGES ON MONDAY BEHIND THAT FRONT. NO BIG STORM SYSTEMS
ARE ON THE HORIZON FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT WEEK OR SO. ADDITIONALLY,
WHILE DAY-TO-DAY DETAILS WILL NEED TO IRONED OUT, THERE IS
INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A MILDER PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE
AND END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/17 TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS TO THE SE OF THE AREA. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY SW ~10 KT (WITH ORF AND SBY SEEING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT).
EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (LESS THAN 5 KT) OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 5-10 KT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT WITH EXPECTED RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR LIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERED CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY WITH THE RAIN. LLWS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AT ALL SITES. BEHIND THE FRONT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED FOR THE BAY UNTIL 4 PM,
BUT WINDS SHOULD DECEASE BY THIS EVENING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND UNTIL 7 PM.
- A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15+KT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS UP ON THE BAY AND THE SCA WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS EVENING
DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH LOSS OF MIXING. WAVES ON THE
BAY HAVE BEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH 2-4 FT ON THE OCEAN, UP TO 5
FT OFFSHORE.
WINDS BECOME SE THU AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SE WINDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THU INTO FRI. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
FRI. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE UPPER BAY THU NIGHT. A
GALE WATCH WAS ADDED TO THE UPPER BAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE SOUTHERLY GALES ARE
UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR- SURFACE STABLE LAYER
HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS, LOCAL RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS >10MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME THE POOR
MIXING IN THE NEAR- SURFACE STABLE LAYER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
10-12MB 6 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AND ~10MB HEIGHT FALLS RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS THIS AREA, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
GALE CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE WIND PROBS ARE TECHNICALLY
LOWER FOR THE NW SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW (POTENTIALLY <980MB) AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH CAA OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO WAA), CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN
GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING,
WHICH IS WHY THE GALE WATCH COVERS BOTH SURGES EVEN THOUGH
THERE COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN SURGES.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE LOW.
HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
END GALE CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE CURRENT GALE WATCH
(INCLUDING THE CHES BAY), HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ANY FARTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA WANES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DUE TO SW WINDS OF 15-25 KT IS POSSIBLE SAT EVENING INTO EARLY
SUN.
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N
COASTAL WATERS TODAY, SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THU. SEAS
QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-9 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6
FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...RMM/JAO
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page