514
FXUS61 KAKQ 172030
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
330 PM EST WED DEC 17 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS
TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TODAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OFFSHORE AND ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST CONTINUES
TO BRING DRY WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. CURRENTLY
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S ACROSS THE AREA WITH
BREEZY SOUTHWEST WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 20-25 MPH. TEMPERATURES HAVE
SURPASSED THE PREVIOUS FORECAST, LIKELY DUE TO THE STRONG SW WINDS
USHERING IN A WARMER AIRMASS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FROM HIGH CLOUDS
ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK TROUGH COVER THE MAJORITY OF THE AREA THROUGH
TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE AVERAGE RIGHT NOW,
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR INLAND AREAS
ALONG WITH INTERIOR PORTION OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND MID TO UPPER
30S ALONG THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.75" TO 1.00" (LOCALLY HIGHER).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ADVANCING ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE TWO
PATTERNS MERGE INTO THE DEEP TROUGH, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT, WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED AS MODEL GUIDANCE POORLY HANDLES WEDGE EVENTS, BUT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BE REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE AND MAYBE SOME MID 60S FOR NE NC. THEN THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO DROP OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF SOME LOCATIONS BEING ACHIEVED OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WITH THIS STRONG FRONT, PWATS AHEAD OF IT SURGE TO 1.25-
1.50" WHICH ARE 200%+ HIGHER THAN TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER VALUES. WITH
A VERY SATURATED AIR COLUMN, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. QPF VALUES
HAVE REMAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME, IF ANYTHING SLIGHTLY HIGHER, WITH
TOTALS NOW OF 0.75-1.00" ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
1.00"+ ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT.
THERE IS SLIGHT MUCAPE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 400 J/KG LIKELY AROUND
THE SE, WHICH COULD ALLOW ENHANCEMENT OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LLJ
INCREASES TO 50-60 KT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. S/SW WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, SHARPLY DECREASING
POPS WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL LIKELY REACH THE WARMEST IN THE MORNING AS STRONG CAA USHERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S IN THE SE VA/NE NC WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY MILD ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- TRENDING MILDER AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IN THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL OR BE SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE ARE NO BIG
STORM SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A MILDER
PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 1230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL THROUGH THE 18Z/17 TAF PERIOD AS HIGH
PRESSURE SITS TO THE SE OF THE AREA. SCT TO BKN HIGH CLOUDS ARE OVER
THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD. WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY SW ~10 KT (WITH ORF AND SBY SEEING GUSTS UP TO 20 KT).
EXPECTING LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS (LESS THAN 5 KT) OVERNIGHT THEN
BECOMING SE LATE THURSDAY MORNING AROUND 5-10 KT.
THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE AREA THURSDAY BRINGING A STRONG
COLD FRONT WITH EXPECTED RAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
MORNING. MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR LIGHT RESTRICTIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH
LOWERED CIGS AND REDUCED VSBY WITH THE RAIN. LLWS WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT AT ALL SITES. BEHIND THE FRONT, VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES WERE EXTENDED FOR THE BAY UNTIL 4 PM,
BUT WINDS SHOULD DECEASE BY THIS EVENING.
- SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL
WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE ISLAND UNTIL 7 PM.
- A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE WAS CENTERED JUST EAST OF THE CAROLINAS THIS
AFTERNOON SUPPORTING A CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WIND OF 15+KT. THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS KEPT WINDS UP ON THE BAY AND THE SCA WAS
EXTENDED UNTIL 4 PM. WINDS SHOULD DECREASE BY THIS EVENING
DROPPING BELOW SCA CRITERIA WITH LOSS OF MIXING. WAVES ON THE
BAY HAVE BEEN AROUND 1 TO 2 FT WITH 2-4 FT ON THE OCEAN, UP TO 5
FT OFFSHORE.
WINDS BECOME SE THU AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SE WINDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THU INTO FRI. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
FRI. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT CONTINUE TO INCREASE FOR THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS AS WELL AS THE UPPER BAY THU NIGHT. A
GALE WATCH WAS ADDED TO THE UPPER BAY FOR THURSDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE SOUTHERLY GALES ARE
UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR- SURFACE STABLE LAYER
HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS, LOCAL RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS >10MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME THE POOR
MIXING IN THE NEAR- SURFACE STABLE LAYER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
10-12MB 6 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AND ~10MB HEIGHT FALLS RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS THIS AREA, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
GALE CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE WIND PROBS ARE TECHNICALLY
LOWER FOR THE NW SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW (POTENTIALLY <980MB) AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH CAA OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO WAA), CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN
GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING,
WHICH IS WHY THE GALE WATCH COVERS BOTH SURGES EVEN THOUGH
THERE COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN SURGES.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE LOW.
HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE
SOUTHERLY SURGE ACROSS THE MIDDLE BAY AND COASTAL WATERS FROM
PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE,
THE CAA SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW-
END GALE CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE CURRENT GALE WATCH
(INCLUDING THE CHES BAY), HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ANY FARTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA WANES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DUE TO SW WINDS OF 15-25 KT IS POSSIBLE SAT EVENING INTO EARLY
SUN.
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N
COASTAL WATERS TODAY, SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THU. SEAS
QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-9 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6
FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
ANZ630>632-634-638.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR
ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ650-
652.
GALE WATCH FROM THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT FOR
ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...RMM/JAO
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