643
FXUS61 KAKQ 180604
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
104 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY. A STRONG
COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND POTENTIALLY GUSTY WINDS
TO THE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND
HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THIS MORNING/
AS OF 950 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY AND COOL TONIGHT WITH DECREASING CLOUDS.
HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST THIS EVENING,
WITH A WEAK BOUNDARY APPROACHING FROM THE NW. CIRRUS CLOUDS ARE
GRADUALLY THINNING FROM NW-SE. TEMPERATURES RANGE FROM THE
MID/UPPER 30S WHERE THE WIND HAS BECOME CALM, TO THE LOWER/MID
40S WHERE A LIGHT SW WIND PERSISTS. OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DROP
BACK INTO THE LOWER 30S FOR INLAND AREAS ALONG WITH INTERIOR
PORTIONS OF THE MD EASTERN SHORE AND MID TO UPPER 30S ALONG THE
COAST. A FEW LOCATIONS ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER OF THE AREA
COULD DROP IN THE UPPER 20S.
SHORT TERM /6 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED THURSDAY EVENING INTO
FRIDAY MORNING WITH AMOUNTS RANGING FROM 0.75" TO 1.00"
(LOCALLY HIGHER).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY BOTH THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND
FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT.
A SPLIT FLOW PATTERN DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM
TROUGH ADVANCING ALONG THE GULF COAST, WHILE A DEEP UPPER TROUGH
SLIDES THROUGH THE MIDWEST AND NORTHERN PLAINS STATES. THE TWO
PATTERNS MERGE INTO THE DEEP TROUGH, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT
THROUGH THE AREA LATE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. AHEAD OF THE FRONT,
RESIDUAL CAD WEDGE MAY LINGER THROUGH THE DAY THURSDAY, ESPECIALLY
TOWARDS THE PIEDMONT, WHICH MAY KEEP TEMPERATURES COOLER THAN
EXPECTED AS MODEL GUIDANCE POORLY HANDLES WEDGE EVENTS, BUT SHOULD
BE ABLE TO BE REACH THE UPPER 50S FOR THE PIEDMONT AND LOWER 60S
ELSEWHERE AND MAYBE SOME MID 60S FOR NE NC. THEN THURSDAY NIGHT, THE
STRONG COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA, WHICH WILL CAUSE
TEMPERATURES TO STRUGGLE TO DROP OVERNIGHT AND WILL LIKELY CAUSE THE
HIGH TEMPERATURES OF SOME LOCATIONS BEING ACHIEVED OVERNIGHT OR
EARLY MORNING.
ADDITIONALLY WITH THIS STRONG FRONT, PWATS AHEAD OF IT SURGE TO 1.25-
1.50" WHICH ARE 200%+ HIGHER THAN TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER VALUES. WITH
A VERY SATURATED AIR COLUMN, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. QPF VALUES
HAVE REMAINED ROUGHLY THE SAME, IF ANYTHING SLIGHTLY HIGHER, WITH
TOTALS NOW OF 0.75-1.00" ACROSS THE AREA. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS OF
1.00"+ ARE POSSIBLE, ESPECIALLY IN AREAS OF CONVECTIVE ENHANCEMENT.
THERE IS SLIGHT MUCAPE WITH VALUES LESS THAN 400 J/KG LIKELY AROUND
THE SE, WHICH COULD ALLOW ENHANCEMENT OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT AS THE LLJ
INCREASES TO 50-60 KT AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS. S/SW WINDS
WITH GUSTS TO 25-35 MPH ARE POSSIBLE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL MOVE OFFSHORE BY FRIDAY MORNING, SHARPLY DECREASING
POPS WITH SKIES CLEARING OUT THROUGH THE DAY. TEMPERATURES AGAIN
WILL LIKELY REACH THE WARMEST IN THE MORNING AS STRONG CAA USHERS IN
BEHIND THE FRONT. HIGHS IN THE MORNING WILL BE IN THE LOWER 50S
INLAND AND LOWER 60S IN THE SE VA/NE NC WITH TEMPERATURES COOLING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY AND OVERNIGHT INTO THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER
30S.
LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 330 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- SEASONABLE TEMPS CONTINUE ON SATURDAY, THEN POTENTIALLY MILD ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF ANOTHER COLD FRONT.
- TRENDING MILDER AGAIN NEXT WEEK.
MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS
THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK INTO THE
AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT, BUT HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR
IN THE LOWER 50S AND UPPER 40S FOR THE EASTERN SHORE. SUNDAY APPEARS
TO BE MILD ONCE AGAIN WITH HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S AHEAD OF A
WEAK COLD FRONT WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIP EXPECTED AT THIS TIME LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. BEHIND THIS FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO
NORMAL OR BE SLIGHTLY BELOW MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE ARE NO BIG
STORM SYSTEMS ON THE HORIZON AND INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN A MILDER
PATTERN AS WE HEAD INTO THE MIDDLE AND END OF THE HOLIDAY WEEK.
AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN
CIRRUS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT
ECG AROUND ~12 TO 14Z AS SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, CIGS ALSO DROP TO MVFR (LOCALLY IFR) IN
ANY PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. FINALLY, LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES AS A ~50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RAPIDLY RETURN AFTER 12Z FRIDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY ON FRIDAY, WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 715 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE BAY, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST HAS MOVED FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING, AND THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SW TO W. SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA, THEREFORE, ALL OF THE SCAS FOR
THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN DROPPED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE NW BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NE-E BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS BECOME SE THU AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SE WINDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THU INTO FRI. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
FRI. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED TO THE
NORTHERN BAY ZONE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE AND IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS ARE
NOT QUITE AS HIGH. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE SOUTHERLY GALES ARE
UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER
HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS, LOCAL RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS >10MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME THE POOR
MIXING IN THE NEAR- SURFACE STABLE LAYER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
10-12MB 6 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AND ~10MB HEIGHT FALLS RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS THIS AREA, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
GALE CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE WIND PROBS ARE TECHNICALLY
LOWER FOR THE NW SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW (POTENTIALLY <980MB) AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH CAA OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO WAA), CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN
GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING,
WHICH IS WHY THE GALE WARNING/WATCH COVERS BOTH SURGES EVEN
THOUGH THERE COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN SURGES.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
LOW. HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE
CAA SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW- END
GALE CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE CURRENT GALE WATCH
(INCLUDING THE CHES BAY), HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ANY FARTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA WANES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DUE TO SW WINDS OF 15-25 KT IS POSSIBLE SAT EVENING INTO EARLY
SUN.
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N
COASTAL WATERS TODAY, SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THU. SEAS
QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-9 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6
FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING FOR ANZ630.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-637-638.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ635-636.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ650-652-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB/SW
NEAR TERM...AJZ/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...NB/JAO
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