954
FXUS61 KAKQ 180719
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
219 AM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE THROUGH TODAY. A
STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR
SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
- A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY, BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.50" TO 1" (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
EARLY THIS MORNING, HIGH PRESSURE (~1027 MB) IS CENTERED OFFSHORE. A
STRONG SYSTEM IS TAKING SHAPE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS STATES WHICH
WILL EVENTUALLY BRING A STRONG COLD FRONT TOWARDS THE AREA TONIGHT.
NIGHTTIME MICROPHYSICS SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS MAINLY CLEAR (NORTH)
TO PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES (SOUTH) OVER THE AREA IN THE FORM OF
CIRRUS/HIGH CLOUDS. TEMPERATURES GENERALLY RANGE FROM THE 30S TO
LOWER 40S DUE TO THE CLOUD COVER, WITH UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S OVER
FAR NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (MD EASTERN SHORE) WHERE SKIES
HAVE BEEN MAINLY CLEAR.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S (NW) TO THE LOWER 60S (SE) DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
OUTSIDE OF A PASSING SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET AS THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH INTERACTS WITH A SOUTHERLY STREAM
SHORTWAVE, ENHANCING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG FRONT SURGE TO 1.25-1.50"
WHICH ARE 200%+ HIGHER THAN TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER VALUES. WITH A
VERY SATURATED AIR COLUMN, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE 0.50" TO 1" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THERE IS SLIGHT MUCAPE
WITH VALUES LESS THAN 400 J/KG LIKELY AROUND THE SE, WHICH COULD
ALLOW ENHANCEMENT OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FINALLY, A STRONG LLJ (55
TO 65 KNOTS) MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION PREVENTS THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE,
SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, EXPECT RISING
TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH LOWS OCCURING EARLY IN
THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
- DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES
BECOME SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER A MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY NOON
ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR
DAYTIME HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY (50S TO 60S) WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG
CAA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID
20S (INLAND) TO LOW 30S (COAST). MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE ON
SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S (COOLEST ACROSS THE THE
NE/EASTERN SHORE). AN APPROACHING (DRY) COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE.
AS A RESULT, IT WON'T BE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED, COLD FRONT LIKELY CROSSES THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S WITH
EVEN SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY, BEFORE A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 100 AM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES EARLY THIS MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN
CIRRUS. THERE IS A LOW PROBABILITY FOR SHALLOW GROUND FOG AT
ECG AROUND ~12 TO 14Z AS SHALLOW LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE BEGINS TO
INCREASE AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
INCREASE THIS THROUGHOUT THIS MORNING THROUGH THIS EVENING, BUT
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. CONDITIONS BEGIN TO
DETERIORATE AFTER 00Z, AND ESPECIALLY AFTER 03Z AS A STRONG COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED
LATE IN THE PERIOD AND ESPECIALLY INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS
OF FRIDAY. IN ADDITION, CIGS ALSO DROP TO MVFR (LOCALLY IFR) IN
ANY PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN. FINALLY, LLWS WILL BE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES AS A ~50 TO 60 KNOT LOW LEVEL JET
MOVES OVERHEAD.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RAPIDLY RETURN AFTER 12Z FRIDAY FROM
WEST TO EAST AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES OFFSHORE. IT WILL REMAIN
BREEZY ON FRIDAY, WITH W-NW WINDS GUSTING TO 20 TO 25 KNOTS. VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 715 PM EST WEDNESDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A GALE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE COASTAL WATERS NORTH
OF PARRAMORE ISLAND FROM THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NIGHT.
- A GALE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE MIDDLE BAY, WITH SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORIES ISSUED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS
THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.
- ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SE COAST HAS MOVED FURTHER OFFSHORE THIS
EVENING, AND THE GRADIENT HAS WEAKENED WHICH HAS RESULTED IN
WINDS BECOMING GENERALLY LIGHT FROM THE SW TO W. SEAS HAVE
SUBSIDED TO BELOW SCA CRITERIA, THEREFORE, ALL OF THE SCAS FOR
THIS EVENING HAVE BEEN DROPPED. A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL DROP
THROUGH THE LOCAL WATERS THIS EVENING AND WINDS WILL CLOCK
AROUND TO THE NW BEFORE MIDNIGHT BEFORE BECOMING NE-E BY
TOMORROW MORNING.
WINDS BECOME SE THU AS A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH. SE WINDS
INCREASE THURSDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO QUEBEC THU INTO FRI. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PUSH A STRONG COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS THE WATERS
FRI. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE LIKELY BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND
THE FRONT WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS
AT LEAST THE NORTHERN BAY AND COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF PARRAMORE
ISLAND. THE GALE WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO A GALE WARNING FOR
THE NORTHERN WATERS. A GALE WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN EXPANDED TO THE
NORTHERN BAY ZONE, THOUGH CONFIDENCE AND IN-HOUSE WIND PROBS ARE
NOT QUITE AS HIGH. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE SOUTHERLY GALES ARE
UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER
HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS, LOCAL RESEARCH HAS
SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS >10MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME THE POOR
MIXING IN THE NEAR- SURFACE STABLE LAYER. THE NAM AND GFS SHOW
10-12MB 6 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS AND ~10MB HEIGHT FALLS RESPECTIVELY
ACROSS THIS AREA, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF
GALE CONDITIONS. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE WIND PROBS ARE TECHNICALLY
LOWER FOR THE NW SURGE BEHIND THE FRONT, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF
THE LOW (POTENTIALLY <980MB) AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH CAA OVER
THE LOCAL WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO WAA), CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN
GALE CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT LATE FRI INTO FRI EVENING,
WHICH IS WHY THE GALE WARNING/WATCH COVERS BOTH SURGES EVEN
THOUGH THERE COULD BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE
CONDITIONS IN BETWEEN SURGES.
ELSEWHERE, HIGH-END SCA CONDITIONS ARE FAVORED GIVEN A SLIGHTLY
WEAKER PRESSURE GRADIENT AND WIND FIELD FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE
LOW. HAVE ISSUED SCAS FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE LOCAL WATERS AT
THIS TIME. HOWEVER, A BRIEF PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE
WITH THE SOUTHERLY SURGE ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS FROM
PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES LIGHT THU NIGHT. OTHERWISE, THE
CAA SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT HAS THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW- END
GALE CONDITIONS FARTHER SOUTH FROM THE CURRENT GALE WATCH
(INCLUDING THE CHES BAY), HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO
EXPAND THE WATCH ANY FARTHER SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH
LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA WANES. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
DUE TO SW WINDS OF 15-25 KT IS POSSIBLE SAT EVENING INTO EARLY
SUN.
OUTSIDE OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF 4-5 FT SEAS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N
COASTAL WATERS TODAY, SEAS REMAIN BELOW 5 FT THROUGH THU. SEAS
QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-9 FT THU NIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE FRI
NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6
FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE N COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ631-632-634.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
GALE WARNING FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...NB/JAO
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