595
FXUS61 KAKQ 181722
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1222 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 535 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
- A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY, BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.50" TO 1" (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S (NW) TO THE LOWER 60S (SE) DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
OUTSIDE OF A PASSING SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET AS THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH INTERACTS WITH A SOUTHERLY STREAM
SHORTWAVE, ENHANCING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG FRONT SURGE TO 1.25-1.50"
WHICH ARE 200%+ HIGHER THAN TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER VALUES. WITH A
VERY SATURATED AIR COLUMN, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE 0.50" TO 1" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THERE IS SLIGHT MUCAPE
WITH VALUES LESS THAN 400 J/KG LIKELY AROUND THE SE, WHICH COULD
ALLOW ENHANCEMENT OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FINALLY, A STRONG LLJ (55
TO 65 KNOTS) MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION PREVENTS THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE,
SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, EXPECT RISING
TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH LOWS OCCURING EARLY IN
THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
- DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES
BECOME SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER A MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY NOON
ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR
DAYTIME HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY (50S TO 60S) WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG
CAA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID
20S (INLAND) TO LOW 30S (COAST). MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE ON
SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S (COOLEST ACROSS THE THE
NE/EASTERN SHORE). AN APPROACHING (DRY) COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE.
AS A RESULT, IT WON'T BE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED, COLD FRONT LIKELY CROSSES THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S WITH
EVEN SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY, BEFORE A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO START THE 18Z/18 TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BUILT IN OVER THE AREA WITH OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN, BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES MOSTLY WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH RIC SEEING DECREASED VIS FIRST AROUND 00Z/19.
AS THE RAIN MOVES FURTHER EAST, THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AROUND 02-04Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR AND SOME IFR
WITH DECREASED VSBY (~4SM, BUT POSSIBLY LOWER IN HEAVIER BANDS OF
RAIN). CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z, WITH RISING CIGS
AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. LLWS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES AS A ~50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SW GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT,
REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 315 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR COASTAL WATERS NORTH OF CAPE
CHARLES LIGHT AND PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE CHESAPEAKE BAY
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH SCAS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- PERIODS OF ELEVATED WINDS CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS. WINDS
BECOME SE LATER THIS MORNING BEFORE INCREASING TO 10-15 KT LATE THIS
AFTERNOON. A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO QUEBEC THU INTO FRI, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS
THE LOCAL WATERS FRI. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE EXPECTED BOTH
AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT WITH CONFIDENCE INCREASING IN GALE
CONDITIONS ACROSS AT LEAST THE NORTHERN WATERS NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS REMAIN MODERATE-HIGH ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (50-75%) WITH LOWER PROBS ACROSS THE MIDDLE
CHES BAY (~20%). AS SUCH, GALE WATCHES HAVE BEEN CONVERTED TO GALE
WARNINGS ACROSS THE CHES BAY NORTH OF WINDMILL POINT AND ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS DUE TO THE POTENTIAL FOR S WINDS 20-30 KT
WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT TONIGHT, BECOMING W FRI AFTERNOON.
ADDITIONALLY, HAVE EXPANDED THE GALE WARNING SOUTH TO INCLUDE THE
COASTAL W215 WATERS FROM PARRAMORE ISLAND TO CAPE CHARLES
LIGHT. WHILE WIND PROBS WERE GENERALLY LOW ACROSS THE CHES BAY,
ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS, GIVEN THE
STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT, TO HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND
UPGRADE TO THE GALE WARNING. WILL NOTE THAT WHILE SOUTHERLY
GALES ARE UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR-SURFACE
STABLE LAYER HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS, LOCAL
RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS >10MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME
THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER. THE NAM AND
GFS SHOW 10-11MB 6 HOUR HEIGHT FALLS, INCREASING CONFIDENCE IN
AT LEAST A PERIOD OF GALE CONDITIONS. ELSEWHERE, S WINDS
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT, BECOMING W
FRI AFTERNOON.
WILL NOTE THAT WHILE WIND PROBS ARE TECHNICALLY LOWER FOR THE W/NW
SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW (WPC HAS
A 975MB LOW BY 00Z SAT) AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH CAA OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO WAA), CONFIDENCE REMAINS HIGHER IN GALE
CONDITIONS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FRI AFTERNOON INTO FRI EVENING,
WHICH IS WHY THE GALE WARNING COVERS BOTH SURGES EVEN THOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN SURGES. THE MODELS CONTINUE TO BE SLOW TO CATCH ON TO THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER WINDS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT FARTHER SOUTH.
HOWEVER, SYNOPTICALLY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A POTENTIAL FOR GALE
GUSTS ACROSS MOST (IF NOT ALL) OF THE LOCAL WATERS FRI AFTERNOON
INTO FRI EVENING. RIGHT NOW, ONLY THE ARW (WHICH TENDS TO BE
OVERDONE) SHOWS SUSTAINED GALE CONDITIONS ACROSS NEARLY ALL OF THE
LOCAL WATERS, HOWEVER, WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF MORE MODELS BEGIN
TO SHOW GALE GUSTS AS WE GET CLOSER TO FRI. NEVERTHELESS, GIVEN THAT
THE LOCAL WIND PROBS REMAIN <20% ACROSS THE CHES BAY AND 30-50%
ACROSS THE COASTAL WATERS, WILL HOLD OFF ON ANY GALE WATCHES FARTHER
SOUTH AT THIS TIME. WINDS DIMINISH LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA WANES.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. AS SUCH, A
PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS OF 15-25 KT AHEAD OF THE
FRONT IS POSSIBLE SAT EVENING INTO EARLY SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON DUE TO NW WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT.
OTHERWISE, WAVES AND SEAS WERE AROUND 1 FOOT AND 2-3 FT RESPECTIVELY
THIS MORNING. SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-9 FT TONIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE
SUBSIDING LATE FRI NIGHT INTO SAT DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF
AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES BUILD TO 3-5 FT. ANOTHER
PERIOD OF 4-6 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES IN THE CHES BAY) SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 410 AM EST THURSDAY...
LOW WATER IS POSSIBLE ON FRI NIGHT INTO SUN ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN CITY AND CHINCOTEAGUE). LOW WATER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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