385
FXUS61 KAKQ 181931
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
231 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 535 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GENERALLY DRY AND MILD CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
- A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY, BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.50" TO 1" (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY THICKEN TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER
OFFSHORE AND FRONT BEGINS TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST. DESPITE THE
CLOUD COVER, TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE ABLE TO CLIMB INTO THE MID-UPPER
50S (NW) TO THE LOWER 60S (SE) DUE TO INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW.
OUTSIDE OF A PASSING SHOWER CHANCE ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE
AREA THIS AFTERNOON, GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE DAYLIGHT HOURS TODAY.
RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER SUNSET AS THE
STRONG SYSTEM TO OUR NORTH INTERACTS WITH A SOUTHERLY STREAM
SHORTWAVE, ENHANCING MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. WIDESPREAD RAIN IS
EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA BETWEEN ROUGHLY 8 PM AND MIDNIGHT.
PWATS AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING STRONG FRONT SURGE TO 1.25-1.50"
WHICH ARE 200%+ HIGHER THAN TYPICAL LATE DECEMBER VALUES. WITH A
VERY SATURATED AIR COLUMN, MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS EXPECTED THROUGH TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. MOST LOCATIONS WILL
SEE 0.50" TO 1" OF RAIN, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO DEVELOP. THERE IS SLIGHT MUCAPE
WITH VALUES LESS THAN 400 J/KG LIKELY AROUND THE SE, WHICH COULD
ALLOW ENHANCEMENT OR A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. FINALLY, A STRONG LLJ (55
TO 65 KNOTS) MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT. WHILE A LOW-LEVEL
INVERSION PREVENTS THE STRONGEST WINDS FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE,
SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY
CLOSER TO THE COAST. IN REGARDS TO TEMPERATURES, EXPECT RISING
TONIGHT DUE TO STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW, WITH LOWS OCCURING EARLY IN
THE NIGHT AND TEMPERATURES RISING INTO THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S
AFTER MIDNIGHT.
SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
- DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING, WITH RAIN CHANCES RAPIDLY
TAPERING OFF IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES
BECOME SUNNY TO MOSTLY SUNNY OVER A MAJORITY OF THE REGION BY NOON
ON FRIDAY. DESPITE THE SUNSHINE, TEMPERATURES WILL REACH THEIR
DAYTIME HIGHS EARLY IN THE DAY (50S TO 60S) WITH TEMPERATURES
FALLING BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S BY THE AFTERNOON DUE TO STRONG
CAA. WINDS WILL BE GUSTY OUT OF THE W IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT, WITH
GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH POSSIBLE. WINDS BEGIN TO DIMINISH FRIDAY NIGHT
WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES, TEMPERATURES WILL FALL BACK INTO THE MID
20S (INLAND) TO LOW 30S (COAST). MOSTLY DRY AND SEASONABLE ON
SATURDAY AS THE FLOW ALOFT FLATTENS OUT AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
BACK INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY
BEHIND THE FRONT, BUT HIGHS WILL BE RIGHT AROUND AVERAGE FOR THIS
TIME OF YEAR IN THE UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S (COOLEST ACROSS THE THE
NE/EASTERN SHORE). AN APPROACHING (DRY) COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT
WILL ALLOW FOR SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MID-HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO INCREASE.
AS A RESULT, IT WON'T BE AS COLD SATURDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY
IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 215 AM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED, COLD FRONT LIKELY CROSSES THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY CLIMB BACK INTO THE 50S WITH
EVEN SOME LOWER 60S POSSIBLE ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.
TEMPERATURES COOL BACK TO BELOW AVERAGE ON MONDAY, BEFORE A GRADUAL
MODERATING TREND INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM
IS POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK.
AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1225 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO START THE 18Z/18 TAF PERIOD. SCT-BKN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BUILT IN OVER THE AREA WITH OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS MOVING
IN, BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS WILL
DETERIORATE TONIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES MOSTLY WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AREA WITH RIC SEEING DECREASED VIS FIRST AROUND 00Z/19.
AS THE RAIN MOVES FURTHER EAST, THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE
FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BEGIN AROUND 02-04Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT
APPROACHES THE AREA. CIGS WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR AND SOME IFR
WITH DECREASED VSBY (~4SM, BUT POSSIBLY LOWER IN HEAVIER BANDS OF
RAIN). CONDITIONS WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 13Z, WITH RISING CIGS
AS THE RAIN MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. LLWS IS
POSSIBLE TONIGHT AT ALL SITES AS A ~50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SW GUSTS
OF 20-30 KT.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT,
REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, WITH SCAS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD.
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. LOCALLY, A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE E-NE ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, SSE OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA ~10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES, 1-2 FT SOUTH.
WAVES WERE 1 FT OR LESS OVER THE BAY, E VA RIVERS AND CURRITUCK
SOUND.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED STRONG/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT TOWARDS JAMES BAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT, AND WILL SEND THE ATTENDANT STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH THAT FRONT CROSSING THE
WATERS FRI LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH IN-HOUSE WIND
PROBS SLOWLY INCREASING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS.
WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS REMAIN MODERATE-HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS (60-90+%) WITH LOWER PROBS ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY
(~20-40%). WHILE WIND PROBS REMAIN GENERALLY LOWER THAN IDEAL ACROSS
THE CHES BAY, ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS,
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT, TO HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
AND UPGRADE TO THE GALE WARNING. FOR THAT REASON, GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED/ISSUED FOR THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL ZONES. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED, SOUTHERLY GALES ARE UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR
GIVEN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD
WATER TEMPS, LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS 8-10+
MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE
LAYER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AT 12Z EACH SHOW THIS OCCURRING, BOOSTING
CON CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE PREFRONTAL SSW FLOW REGIME. S WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT.
WIND PROBS REMAIN LOWER FOR THE W/NW SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW (OFFICIAL WPC FORECAST HAS A
~973MB LOW BY 00Z SAT) AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH CAA OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO WAA), CONFIDENCE THAT A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCUR POST-FRONTAL FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI
EVENING. THIS IS WHY THE GALE WARNING COVERS BOTH SURGES EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN SURGES FRI MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA
WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-SW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ON SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT EVENING INTO EARLY
SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IN
POST-FRONTAL CAA.
SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-9 FT (WAVES 3-5 FT) TONIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE
SUBSIDING LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6 FT SEAS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY)
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW WATER IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING,
AND POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE). LOW WATER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 10 PM EST
FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB/KMC
MARINE...MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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