724
FXUS61 KAKQ 190046
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
746 PM EST THU DEC 18 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE TODAY. A STRONG COLD
FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
TONIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY. DRIER WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE
RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL
NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/
AS OF 800 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY, BRINGING A
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE
FROM 0.50" TO 1" (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
A STRONG SURFACE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM (~984 MB) IS CENTERED OVER
LAKE SUPERIOR DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS CENTRAL CONUS. HIGH
PRESSURE MOVES FURTHER OFFSHORE TO THE NE OF THE AREA, ALLOWING
OVERCAST HIGH CLOUDS TO CREEP INTO THE AREA. TEMPERATURES ARE
ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR, CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE TO
UPPER 50S ACROSS VA AND NC AND UPPER 40S TO LOWER 50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE. A WARM FRONT WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL
LIFT THROUGH THE AREA TONIGHT PREVENTING TEMPERATURES FROM
DROPPING, AND POSSIBLY RISING A FEW DEGREES OVERNIGHT WITH
FRIDAY'S HIGH TEMPERATURE OCCURING OVERNIGHT OR IN THE EARLY
MORNING.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH THE AREA TONIGHT AND EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING PROVIDING WIDESPREAD SHOWERS BEGINNING LATE EVENING
THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. SHOWERS WILL LIKELY ENTER THE AREA
AROUND 7 PM IN THE PIEDMONT AND NE NC, MOVING TO THE NE WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA BY 10 PM. THERE WILL LIKELY BE A
BREAK IN THE SHOWERS EARLY FRIDAY MORNING BETWEEN 3-5 AM WITH A LINE
OF SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT MOVING WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE
AREA FROM AROUND 4-7 AM. MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR COLUMN IS VERY SATURATED WITH PWATS
200%+ ABOVE THE AVERAGE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. RAINFALL TOTALS
REMAIN ON TRACK WITH MOST LOCATIONS SEEING 0.50-1.00" WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN ANY CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS THAT ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP. SLIGHT LEVELS OF INSTABILITY WITH MUCAPE VALUES LESS THAN
400 J/KG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA, WHICH
MAY ALLOW FOR A FEW RUMBLES OF THUNDER OR ENHANCEMENT IN THE
SHOWERS.
ADDITIONALLY, A STRONG LLJ (55 TO 65 KT) MOVES INTO THE AREA AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WHILE A LOW-LEVEL INVERSION PREVENTS THE STRONGEST WINDS
FROM MIXING TO THE SURFACE, SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
LATER TONIGHT, ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO THE COAST.
SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT ON FRIDAY.
- DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA FRIDAY MORNING WITH RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY DECREASING IN THE MORNING FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES
WILL CLEAR OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED.
HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE HIGH LIKELY BEING REACHED IN THE
EARLY MORNING. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE SE TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY THE
AFTERNOON. DURING THE DAY FRIDAY, WINDS WILL BE BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF
25-35 MPH WITH WINDS DIMINISHING OVERNIGHT. FRIDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL
RETURN TO BELOW FREEZING IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S. HIGH
PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY SUNNY
SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F (MID 40S ON THE EASTERN
SHORE) AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S.
LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 245 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT LIKELY CROSSES THE AREA DURING
THE DAY ON SUNDAY. OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF
THE WEATHER PATTERN THIS WEEKEND BEFORE GRADUALLY SLIDING OFFSHORE
EARLY NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 50S, WHILE BEHIND THE FRONT, MONDAY'S HIGHS STRUGGLE TO
REACH THE MID 40S. THEN, A MODERATING TREND WILL RETURN TEMPERATURES
TO NEAR NORMAL INTO THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. ANOTHER STORM SYSTEM IS
POSSIBLE BY MID TO LATE PORTIONS OF NEXT WEEK, BUT LATEST ENSEMBLE
GUIDANCE KEEPS MOST OF THE RAIN CHANCES NORTH OF THE AREA FOR
CHRISTMAS.
AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 630 PM EST THURSDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL TO START THE 00Z/19 TAF PERIOD. BKN HIGH
CLOUDS HAVE BUILT IN OVER THE AREA WITH OVC MID LEVEL CLOUDS
MOVING IN, BUT WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH EARLY EVENING. CONDITIONS
WILL DETERIORATE THROUGH THE NIGHT AS WIDESPREAD RAIN MOVES
MOSTLY WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AREA WITH RIC SEEING DECREASED
VIS FIRST BETWEEN 00Z AND 02Z /19. AS THE RAIN MOVES FURTHER
EAST, THE REMAINING TERMINALS WILL SEE FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS BEGIN
AROUND 02-04Z AS A STRONG COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. CIGS
WILL BEGIN TO LOWER TO MVFR AND SOME IFR WITH DECREASED VSBY
(~4SM, BUT POSSIBLY LOWER IN HEAVIER BANDS OF RAIN). CONDITIONS
WILL RAPIDLY IMPROVE AFTER 14Z, WITH RISING CIGS AS THE RAIN
MOVES OUT OF THE AREA FROM WEST TO EAST. LLWS IS POSSIBLE
TONIGHT AT ALL SITES AS A ~50 TO 60 KT LOW LEVEL JET MOVES
OVERHEAD. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH SW
GUSTS OF 20-30 KT WITH SOME LOCALIZED HIGHER GUSTS.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS RETURN BY LATE MORNING BEHIND THE FRONT,
REMAINING BREEZY THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE WATERS FRIDAY MORNING. GALE
WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS AND THE CHESAPEAKE
BAY, WITH SCAS IN EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- ANOTHER STRONG COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH
ANOTHER PERIOD OF ELEVATED WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS AFTERNOON, WITH DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WITH ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD.
FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE MIDDLE AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI RIVER
VALLEY. LOCALLY, A WEAK COASTAL TROUGH/COASTAL FRONT WAS NOTED
ACROSS THE CAROLINA COAST THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WERE E-NE ALONG AND
EAST OF THIS FRONT ALONG THE COASTAL CAROLINAS, SSE OVER THE REST OF
THE AREA ~10 KT. SEAS 2 TO 3 FT NORTH OF CAPE CHARLES, 1-2 FT SOUTH.
WAVES WERE 1 FT OR LESS OVER THE BAY, E VA RIVERS AND CURRITUCK
SOUND.
THE PREVIOUSLY REFERENCED STRONG/DEEPENING LOW PRESSURE OVER THE
UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL LIFT TOWARDS JAMES BAY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE, COOL HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS
WILL BUILD EAST TONIGHT, AND WILL SEND THE ATTENDANT STRONG SURFACE
COLD FRONT TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT, WITH THAT FRONT CROSSING THE
WATERS FRI LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS ARE
EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH IN-HOUSE WIND
PROBS SLOWLY INCREASING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR GALE CONDITIONS.
WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS REMAIN MODERATE-HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS (60-90+%) WITH LOWER PROBS ACROSS THE MIDDLE CHES BAY
(~20-40%). WHILE WIND PROBS REMAIN GENERALLY LOWER THAN IDEAL ACROSS
THE CHES BAY, ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS,
GIVEN THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT, TO HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION
AND UPGRADE TO THE GALE WARNING. FOR THAT REASON, GALE WARNINGS HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED/ISSUED FOR THE CHES BAY AND COASTAL ZONES. AS
PREVIOUSLY NOTED, SOUTHERLY GALES ARE UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR
GIVEN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD
WATER TEMPS, LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS 8-10+
MB/6HRS CAN OVERCOME THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE
LAYER. DETERMINISTIC MODELS AT 12Z EACH SHOW THIS OCCURRING, BOOSTING
CON CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE PREFRONTAL SSW FLOW REGIME. S WINDS INCREASE TO 20-25 KT WITH
GUSTS UP TO 30 KT TONIGHT.
WIND PROBS REMAIN LOWER FOR THE W/NW SURGE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW (OFFICIAL WPC FORECAST HAS A
~973MB LOW BY 00Z SAT) AND FAVORABLE MIXING WITH CAA OVER THE LOCAL
WATERS (AS OPPOSED TO WAA), CONFIDENCE THAT A MORE PERSISTENT PERIOD
OF GALE FORCE GUSTS OCCUR POST-FRONTAL FRI AFTERNOON INTO EARLY FRI
EVENING. THIS IS WHY THE GALE WARNING COVERS BOTH SURGES EVEN THOUGH
THERE WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN SURGES FRI MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH LATER FRI NIGHT AS CAA
WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-SW. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND. ANOTHER PERIOD OF SCA CONDITIONS
ON SW WINDS IS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT EVENING INTO EARLY
SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IN
POST-FRONTAL CAA.
SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 5-9 FT (WAVES 3-5 FT) TONIGHT INTO FRI BEFORE
SUBSIDING LATE FRI NIGHT/SAT MORNING DUE TO THE ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD
OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6 FT SEAS IS
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND
ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY)
SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW WATER IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING,
AND POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE). LOW WATER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ630>632-634-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ633-635>638.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR
ANZ650-652.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM EST FRIDAY FOR
ANZ656-658.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...HET/KMC
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...HET/KMC
MARINE...MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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