544
FXUS61 KAKQ 190811
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
311 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. DRIER
WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING BRINGING WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. AMOUNTS WILL RANGE FROM 0.50" TO 1.00" (WITH LOCALLY
HIGHER AMOUNTS).
- WINDS BECOME GUSTY BOTH AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND BEHIND THE FRONT,
WITH WIDESPREAD GUSTS OF 30 TO 40+ MPH POSSIBLE.
- A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES
WHERE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
EARLY THIS MORNING, STRONG LOW PRESSURE (~983 MB) IS LOCATED OVER
THE NORTHERN GREAT LAKES WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT DRAPED SOUTH OVER
THE OHIO/TN VALLEY AND DOWN TO THE GULF COAST. A WARM FRONT IS
LOCATED JUST TO THE NW OF OUR FORECAST AREA BORDERS, ROUGHLY ALONG
THE SLOPE OF THE BLUE RIDGE. WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS HAVE OVERSPREAD
THE AREA THIS MORNING AHEAD OF THE FRONT THANKS TO A STRONG LLJ (~50
TO 60 KNOTS) NUDGING INTO THE AREA, COMBINED WITH PWAT VALUES OF 1.2-
1.4" (200%+ ABOVE AVERAGE) FILTERING INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH.
RAINFALL TOTALS REMAIN ON TRACK WITH MOST LOCATIONS EXPECTED TO SEE
0.50" TO 1.00" (WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS) THROUGH THIS MORNING.
COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS WORK INTO THE AREA LATER THIS
MORNING (ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE FAR SE), SPC HAS MAINTAINED A
MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER JUST TO THE SOUTH OF THE ALBEMARLE
SOUND. MUCAPE WILL TRY TO INCREASE TO AROUND ~400 J/KG ACROSS THE
SOUTHEAST FROM ~9 TO 13Z THIS MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH THE
FAVORABLE UPPER DYNAMICS MAY SUPPORT AN ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUST
OR EVEN A TORNADO DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS ACROSS FAR SE
PORTIONS OF THE AREA. CAMS ARE ALSO SHOWING A THIN LINE OF HIGHER
REFLECTIVITY AS THE FRONT CROSSES THE AREAS FROM WEST TO EAST
(BETWEEN ~11 TO 15Z) WHICH MAY MIX DOWN A STRONGER WIND GUST OR TWO.
ADDITIONALLY, WITH THE STRONG LLJ OVER THE AREA, SOME GUSTS OF 30 TO
40 MPH (MD EASTERN SHORE 40+ MPH) ARE POSSIBLE OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE
ELEMENTS.
THE STRONG COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY DECREASING FROM WEST TO EAST. SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT
WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER, WITH THE STRONG CAA BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL
FALL THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH THE HIGH LIKELY BEING REACHED OVER THE
NEXT FEW HOURS. TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S IN THE SE TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH.
WINDS ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE MAY GUST TO AS HIGH AS 40 TO 50 MPH,
THUS A WIND ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE COUNTIES.
WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP
BACK BELOW FREEZING, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER
30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
- A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F (MID 40S ON THE
EASTERN SHORE) AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT LIKELY CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (POSSIBLY SOME POCKETS
OF UPPER TEENS IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
40S ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY DROP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE. FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. EXPECTING
LITTLE TO NO POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH (MID 50S EASTERN SHORE). UNFORTUNATELY A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE THE EXPECTED MILD WEATHER. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS ARE APPEARING FAVORABLE FOR SANTA AND HIS REINDEER
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/
AS OF 1230 AM EST FRIDAY...
A WARM FRONT HAS LIFTED NORTH OF THE TAF SITES EARLY THIS
MORNING WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT QUICKLY APPROACHING FROM THE
WEST. DETERIORATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT COUPLE
OF HOURS AS RAIN CONTINUES TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA AND LOWER CIGS
MOVE IN FROM THE WEST. PREDOMINATELY MVFR TO IFR CIGS ARE
EXPECTED AT ALL SITES BY 08-09Z. VSBYS WILL ALSO DROP TO MVFR IN
ANY HEAVIER RAIN (POTENTIALLY SOME POCKETS OF IFR). LLWS ALSO
CONTINUES THIS MORNING AT ALL SITES AS A ~50 TO 60 KNOT LLJ
MOVES OVERHEAD. FINALLY, CANNOT RULE OUT AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM ACROSS THE SE TERMINALS (BEST CHANCE ECG) ~09-12Z,
THOUGH CONFIDENCE WAS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO MENTION IN THE
FORECAST. CONDITIONS RAPIDLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST AS THE
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ~14Z, WITH RAIN COMING TO AN END AND ALL
SITES IMPROVING TO VFR CIGS BY EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT
WINDS THIS MORNING TO BECOME GUSTY OUT OF THE SW WITH GUSTS OF
20 TO 30 KNOTS. WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATER THIS
MORNING/AFTERNOON WILL REMAIN ELEVATED WITH W-WNW GUSTS OF 25
TO 35 KNOTS (HIGHEST AT SBY) POSSIBLE.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY,
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF
THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ELEVATED WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STRONG 984 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIA. THIS STRONG LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER
TODAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH IN-HOUSE
WIND PROBS SLOWLY INCREASING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR GALE
CONDITIONS. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (70-90+%) WITH LOWER PROBS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (40-60%) AND CHES BAY (20-40%). WHILE
WIND PROBS REMAIN GENERALLY LOWER THAN IDEAL ACROSS THE CHES
BAY, ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS (GIVEN
THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT) TO HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND
KEEP THE GALE WARNINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED,
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR-
SURFACE STABLE LAYER HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS,
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS 8-10+ MB/6HRS CAN
OVERCOME THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AT 00Z SHOW THIS OCCURRING, BOOSTING CON
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE PREFRONTAL S FLOW REGIME. AS SUCH, EXPECT S WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT (LOCALLY 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT THIS MORNING (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS). WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
GALE CONDITION ACROSS THE TIDAL RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND THIS
MORNING.
STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT) AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
(OFFICIAL WPC FORECAST HAS A 973MB LOW BY 00Z SAT). AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE-HIGH IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SHORT GAP BETWEEN THE TWO SURGES, THE GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING TO COVER BOTH SURGES, EVEN THOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN SURGES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS CAA WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-SW. WILL
NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE-
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER JAMES RIVER TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM TODAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TIDAL RIVERS AND THE CURRITUCK
SOUND, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING.
ADDITIONALLY, SMWS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 34+ KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-11 FT NORTH AND 6-9 FT SOUTH LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO THE
ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES
BUILD TO 3-6 FT TODAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN 7-10 FT NEARSHORE
WAVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6 FT
SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE
CHES BAY) SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 230 PM EST THURSDAY...
LOW WATER IS LOOKING INCREASINGLY LIKELY FRI NIGHT INTO SAT MORNING,
AND POSSIBLE ONCE AGAIN SAT NIGHT INTO SUN MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE LOWER BAY, LOWER JAMES RIVER, AND THE ATLANTIC COAST OF THE
EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE). LOW WATER
ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE UPDATES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>637.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM EST THIS
EVENING FOR ANZ638.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...AJB
MARINE...MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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