238
FXUS61 KAKQ 191735
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1235 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
A STRONG COLD FRONT BRINGS WIDESPREAD SHOWERS, ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS, AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS MORNING. DRIER
WEATHER AND HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS FOR THE WEEKEND, WITH
TEMPERATURES NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 1010 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A STRONG FRONT CROSSES THE AREA THIS MORNING, WITH DRY AND
MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED BY THE AFTERNOON.
- A WIND ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR OUR EASTERN SHORE
COUNTIES WHERE GUSTS OF 45+ MPH ARE POSSIBLE.
STRONG (SUB-980 MB) LOW PRESSURE IS NOW LOCATED IN QUEBEC LATE
THIS MORNING, WITH THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT NOW NEAR THE COAST
AS OF THIS WRITING. A THIN, LOW- TOPPED LINE OF CONVECTION
ALSO TRAVERSED THE AREA THIS MORNING AND HAS NOW MOVED OFFSHORE.
A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS CONTINUE OVER THE EASTERN SHORE AND
EXTREME SE VA; OTHERWISE, CONDITIONS HAVE DRIED OUT. RAIN
CHANCES RAPIDLY DECREASE FOR ALL LOCATIONS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR
SO AND SKIES WILL CLEAR OUT WITH MOSTLY SUNNY TO SUNNY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TEMPS NEAR THE COAST
WILL FALL A FEW DEGREES BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH THE TEMPS IN
CENTRAL VA HAVING FALLEN A FEW HOURS AGO. DESPITE THE COLD
ADVECTION, AFTERNOON TEMPS SHOULD STILL BE ON THE MILDER SIDE AS
FULL SUNSHINE COUNTERACTS THE COOLER AIRMASS MOVING IN.
TEMPERATURES DURING THE DAY WILL DROP FROM THE UPPER 50S TO
LOWER 60S IN THE SE TO THE UPPER 40S TO MID 50S BY THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH,
BUT OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 45 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. THERE IS HIGHER
CONFIDENCE IN THESE HIGHER GUSTS ON THE EASTERN SHORE AND A WIND
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING HERE. WINDS
DIMINISH THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. LOWS TONIGHT WILL DROP BACK
BELOW FREEZING, GENERALLY RANGING FROM THE MID 20S TO LOWER 30S.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DRY, SEASONABLE WEATHER ON SATURDAY.
- A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA ON SUNDAY
WITH COLDER AIR RETURNING SUNDAY NIGHT.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK OVER THE AREA SATURDAY WITH MOSTLY
SUNNY SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES NEAR 50F (MID 40S ON THE
EASTERN SHORE) AND LOWS IN THE MID 30S. A WEAK, MOISTURE STARVED
COLD FRONT LIKELY CROSSES THE AREA DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY.
OTHERWISE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER PATTERN.
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY WILL BE ABOVE AVERAGE IN THE MID TO UPPER
50S. COLDER AIR FILTERS INTO THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LOWS
DROPPING INTO THE 20S FOR MOST INLAND AREAS (POSSIBLY SOME POCKETS
OF UPPER TEENS IN THE TYPICALLY COOLER SPOTS).
LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- DRY WEATHER INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
BEHIND THE FRONT, TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO MAKE IT OUT OF THE
40S ON MONDAY. ANOTHER WEAK FRONT/CLIPPER SYSTEM MAY DROP THROUGH
THE AREA ON TUESDAY, BRINGING LOW-END CHANCES FOR RAIN. DRY WEATHER
RETURNS ON WEDNESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CONTINUING TO MODERATE. FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY, ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PASS TO OUR NORTH. EXPECTING
LITTLE TO NO POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM AT THIS TIME, BUT WE COULD SEE
SOME INCREASING CLOUD COVER ON CHRISTMAS DAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER 60S
SOUTH (MID 50S EASTERN SHORE). UNFORTUNATELY A WHITE CHRISTMAS IS
HIGHLY UNLIKELY GIVEN THE THE EXPECTED MILD WEATHER. HOWEVER,
CONDITIONS ARE APPEARING FAVORABLE FOR SANTA AND HIS REINDEER
CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS DAY.
AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST FRIDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING
SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OUT OF THE W TO 30-35 KT. BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY,
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF
THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ELEVATED WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STRONG 984 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIA. THIS STRONG LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER
TODAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH IN-HOUSE
WIND PROBS SLOWLY INCREASING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR GALE
CONDITIONS. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (70-90+%) WITH LOWER PROBS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (40-60%) AND CHES BAY (20-40%). WHILE
WIND PROBS REMAIN GENERALLY LOWER THAN IDEAL ACROSS THE CHES
BAY, ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS (GIVEN
THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT) TO HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND
KEEP THE GALE WARNINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED,
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR-
SURFACE STABLE LAYER HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS,
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS 8-10+ MB/6HRS CAN
OVERCOME THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AT 00Z SHOW THIS OCCURRING, BOOSTING CON
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE PREFRONTAL S FLOW REGIME. AS SUCH, EXPECT S WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT (LOCALLY 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT THIS MORNING (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS). WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
GALE CONDITION ACROSS THE TIDAL RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND THIS
MORNING.
STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT) AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
(OFFICIAL WPC FORECAST HAS A 973MB LOW BY 00Z SAT). AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE-HIGH IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SHORT GAP BETWEEN THE TWO SURGES, THE GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING TO COVER BOTH SURGES, EVEN THOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN SURGES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS CAA WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-SW. WILL
NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE-
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER JAMES RIVER TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM TODAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TIDAL RIVERS AND THE CURRITUCK
SOUND, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING.
ADDITIONALLY, SMWS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 34+ KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-11 FT NORTH AND 6-9 FT SOUTH LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO THE
ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES
BUILD TO 3-6 FT TODAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN 7-10 FT NEARSHORE
WAVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6 FT
SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE
CHES BAY) SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...
LOW WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CHES BAY, TIDAL RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN
CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE). LOW WATER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY LOW WATER
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...AJB
NEAR TERM...AJB/SW
SHORT TERM...AJB/KMC
LONG TERM...AJB/KMC
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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