725
FXUS61 KAKQ 191909
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
209 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
(DRY) COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
A BUILDING UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE THEN BRINGS WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS (TO 35-45 MPH) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER AIR RETURNS TONIGHT.
WELL N OF THE REGION, STRONG LOW PRESSURE (~975 MB) IS LOCATED OVER
QUEBEC. LOCALLY, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE UNTIL 10 PM, THOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLIER. THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION HAS BEEN LESS THAN MODELED, WITH TEMPERATURES (UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S) CURRENTLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE MOST OF
THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, OUTSIDE OF A
WIDELY SCATTERED CU FIELD ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THE COLD AIR
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST, UNDER A CLEAR
SKY.
SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT DECEMBER WEATHER EXPECTED.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID-
UPPER 40S N TO LOWER 50S S, WITH TEMPS SUNDAY REBOUNDING BACK INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AS THE FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS SOUTHERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FALL INTO THE 30S AND 20S, RESPECTIVELY.
A LARGE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE HOLIDAY
WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FAVOR
COOLER TEMPS MONDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MONDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SKIES REMAIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TURN INCREASINGLY MILD FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS
ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING A GOOD SHOT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH THERE IS VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH, SO POPS ARE LOW
(OUTSIDE OF SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER). TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER
60S SOUTH (MID 50S EASTERN SHORE). WHILE THE CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ARE VIRTUALLY ZERO, FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SANTA AND HIS REINDEER CHRISTMAS EVE (THOUGH HE
MAY NEED A PAIR OF SHORTS!). POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER TO END THE
WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS FLEXING
EASTWARD.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST FRIDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING
SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OUT OF THE W TO 30-35 KT. BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 310 AM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY,
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF
THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ELEVATED WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A STRONG 984 MB LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE UPPER GREAT LAKES/SOUTHERN ONTARIO, WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING
SOUTH ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND APPALACHIA. THIS STRONG LOW
WILL CONTINUE TO DEEPEN AS IT MOVES INTO SOUTHERN QUEBEC LATER
TODAY, PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT ACROSS THE LOCAL WATERS LATE
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. ELEVATED WINDS AND SEAS
ARE EXPECTED BOTH AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE FRONT, WITH IN-HOUSE
WIND PROBS SLOWLY INCREASING REGARDING POTENTIAL FOR GALE
CONDITIONS. WIND PROBS FOR 34 KT GUSTS REMAIN HIGHEST ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS (70-90+%) WITH LOWER PROBS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS (40-60%) AND CHES BAY (20-40%). WHILE
WIND PROBS REMAIN GENERALLY LOWER THAN IDEAL ACROSS THE CHES
BAY, ENOUGH POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A PERIOD OF 34 KT GUSTS (GIVEN
THE STRONG WIND FIELD ALOFT) TO HEDGE ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION AND
KEEP THE GALE WARNINGS EARLY THIS MORNING. AS PREVIOUSLY NOTED,
SOUTHERLY GALES ARE UNCOMMON THIS TIME OF YEAR GIVEN THE NEAR-
SURFACE STABLE LAYER HINDERING MIXING DUE TO COLD WATER TEMPS,
LOCAL RESEARCH HAS SHOWN THAT PRESSURE FALLS 8-10+ MB/6HRS CAN
OVERCOME THE POOR MIXING IN THE NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER.
DETERMINISTIC MODELS AT 00Z SHOW THIS OCCURRING, BOOSTING CON
CONFIDENCE IN AT LEAST A PERIOD OF OCCASIONAL GALE CONDITIONS IN
THE PREFRONTAL S FLOW REGIME. AS SUCH, EXPECT S WINDS TO
INCREASE TO 20-25 KT (LOCALLY 25-30 KT ACROSS THE NORTHERN
COASTAL WATERS) WITH GUSTS UP TO 35-40 KT THIS MORNING (HIGHEST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS). WINDS LIKELY REMAIN BELOW
GALE CONDITION ACROSS THE TIDAL RIVERS AND CURRITUCK SOUND THIS
MORNING.
STRONG CAA IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON (BEGINNING LATE THIS MORNING
IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE COLD FRONT) AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO DEEPEN
(OFFICIAL WPC FORECAST HAS A 973MB LOW BY 00Z SAT). AS SUCH,
CONFIDENCE REMAINS MODERATE-HIGH IN A MORE PROLONGED PERIOD OF GALE
FORCE GUSTS THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. GIVEN THE RELATIVELY
SHORT GAP BETWEEN THE TWO SURGES, THE GALE WARNINGS WILL REMAIN IN
EFFECT THROUGH THIS EVENING TO COVER BOTH SURGES, EVEN THOUGH THERE
WILL LIKELY BE A SEVERAL HOUR PERIOD OF SUB-GALE CONDITIONS IN
BETWEEN SURGES LATER THIS MORNING. WINDS DIMINISH AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT AS CAA WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE W-SW. WILL
NOTE THAT MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO INCREASE IN WINDS THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH HIGH ENOUGH CONFIDENCE IN A PERIOD OF GALE-
FORCE GUSTS ACROSS THE LOWER JAMES RIVER TO WARRANT AN UPGRADE TO A
GALE WARNING FROM 1 PM TO 10 PM TODAY. A FEW GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE TIDAL RIVERS AND THE CURRITUCK
SOUND, HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE WAS TOO LOW TO UPGRADE TO A GALE WARNING.
ADDITIONALLY, SMWS MAY BE NEEDED WITH THE COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATER
THIS MORNING INTO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THESE AREAS AS A BRIEF
PERIOD OF 34+ KT GUSTS IS POSSIBLE WITH THE FROPA.
SEAS QUICKLY BUILD TO 8-11 FT NORTH AND 6-9 FT SOUTH LATER THIS
MORNING BEFORE SUBSIDING LATE TONIGHT INTO SAT MORNING DUE TO THE
ELEVATED WINDS AHEAD OF AND BEHIND THE COLD FRONT. MEANWHILE, WAVES
BUILD TO 3-6 FT TODAY. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED IN 7-10 FT NEARSHORE
WAVES ACROSS THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF THE EASTERN SHORE THIS MORNING
INTO THIS AFTERNOON. AS SUCH, A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREAS.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6 FT
SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE
CHES BAY) SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 350 AM EST FRIDAY...
LOW WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CHES BAY, TIDAL RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN
CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE). LOW WATER ADVISORIES MAY BE NEEDED IN FUTURE
UPDATES. HOWEVER, CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO ISSUE ANY LOW WATER
ADVISORIES AT THIS TIME.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
LOW WATER ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 4 AM EST
SATURDAY FOR ANZ650.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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