590
FXUS61 KAKQ 191958
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
258 PM EST FRI DEC 19 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
BEHIND A COLD FRONT. THE HIGH SLIDES OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER
(DRY) COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY.
A BUILDING UPPER- LEVEL RIDGE THEN BRINGS WARMING TEMPERATURES
AND PLEASANT WEATHER FOR MOST OF THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY WEEK.
NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GUSTY WINDS (TO 35-45 MPH) ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- COOLER AIR RETURNS TONIGHT.
WELL N OF THE REGION, STRONG LOW PRESSURE (~975 MB) IS LOCATED OVER
QUEBEC. LOCALLY, WINDS REMAIN GUSTY ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
IN THE WAKE OF THE EARLIER COLD FRONT PASSAGE. A WIND ADVISORY
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EASTERN SHORE UNTIL 10 PM, THOUGH IT
WILL LIKELY BE CANCELLED EARLIER. THE INITIAL POST-FRONTAL COLD
ADVECTION HAS BEEN LESS THAN MODELED, WITH TEMPERATURES (UPPER
50S TO LOWER 60S) CURRENTLY RUNNING 3-5 DEGREES ABOVE MOST OF
THE NEAR-TERM GUIDANCE. SKIES ARE MOSTLY CLEAR, OUTSIDE OF A
WIDELY SCATTERED CU FIELD ON THE MD EASTERN SHORE. THE COLD AIR
WILL EVENTUALLY PUSH IN TONIGHT WITH TEMPS FALLING INTO THE MID-
UPPER 20S INLAND AND LOWER 30S NEAR THE COAST, UNDER A CLEAR
SKY.
SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- TEMPERATURES REBOUND SATURDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY WITH
PLEASANT DECEMBER WEATHER EXPECTED.
COLD HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE AREA SATURDAY, FOLLOWED BY A DRY
COLD FRONT PASSAGE SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPS SATURDAY RANGE FROM THE MID-
UPPER 40S N TO LOWER 50S S, WITH TEMPS SUNDAY REBOUNDING BACK INTO
THE MID-UPPER 50S AS THE FLOW BRIEFLY TURNS SOUTHERLY. OVERNIGHT
LOWS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY FALL INTO THE 30S AND 20S, RESPECTIVELY.
A LARGE RIDGE EXPANDS OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS TO START THE HOLIDAY
WORK WEEK. HOWEVER, LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS FAVOR
COOLER TEMPS MONDAY WITH COOL SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD. MONDAY
WILL LIKELY BE THE COOLEST DAY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH HIGHS
ONLY IN THE LOW TO MID 40S. SKIES REMAIN SUNNY/MOSTLY SUNNY.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 200 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A QUICK-MOVING SYSTEM BRINGS A CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN TUESDAY.
- TEMPERATURES TURN INCREASINGLY MILD FOR THE UPCOMING HOLIDAY
WEEK.
THE AFOREMENTIONED RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND ACROSS THE EASTERN
CONUS THROUGH NEXT WEEK; HOWEVER, THE LOCAL AREA WILL REMAIN ON
THE EASTERN PERIPHERY THROUGH THE MIDWEEK PERIOD. THIS ALLOWS
ANOTHER QUICK-MOVING CLIPPER AND COLD FRONT TO IMPACT THE REGION
FROM THE NORTHWEST, BRINGING A GOOD SHOT FOR LIGHT PRECIP
DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. FOR CHRISTMAS DAY, ANOTHER
SYSTEM MAY APPROACH IN THE NW FLOW ALOFT, THOUGH THERE IS VERY
LITTLE MOISTURE FOR THIS SYSTEM TO WORK WITH, SO POPS ARE LOW
(OUTSIDE OF SOME INCREASED CLOUD COVER). TEMPERATURES WILL BE
QUITE MILD WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S NORTH TO LOWER
60S SOUTH (MID 50S EASTERN SHORE). WHILE THE CHANCES OF A WHITE
CHRISTMAS ARE VIRTUALLY ZERO, FLYING CONDITIONS APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR SANTA AND HIS REINDEER CHRISTMAS EVE (THOUGH HE
MAY NEED A PAIR OF SHORTS!). POTENTIALLY EVEN WARMER TO END THE
WEEK WITH ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWING THE RIDGE AXIS FLEXING
EASTWARD.
AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1235 PM EST FRIDAY...
FLYING CONDITIONS HAVE IMPROVED TO VFR AREAWIDE WITH CLEARING
SKIES AT ALL TERMINALS. HOWEVER, GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON, WITH OCCASIONAL
GUSTS OUT OF THE W TO 30-35 KT. BRIEF HIGHER GUSTS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE. WINDS DIMINISH THIS EVENING AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT
WITH VFR CONTINUING.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
MARINE
AS OF 255 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FOR THE COASTAL WATERS, CHESAPEAKE BAY,
AND LOWER JAMES RIVER TODAY INTO EARLY TONIGHT. SCAS ARE IN
EFFECT ELSEWHERE.
- A HIGH SURF ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE ATLANTIC SIDE OF
THE EASTERN SHORE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ELEVATED WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG ~976MB SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN QC THIS AFTERNOON. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW OFFSHORE,
WITH 1024MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
MID-SOUTH. WINDS HAVE LARGELY UNFOLDED AS EXPECTED, WITH STRONG
W WINDS (20-25 KT) AND GUSTS TO GALE FORCE THIS AFTERNOON, WITH
THE MOST FREQUENT GUSTS OVER THE LOWER JAMES, THE LOWER BAY AND
THE CENTRAL COASTAL WATERS. GUSTS TO GALE FORCE WILL PERSIST
INTO THIS EVENING, WITH THE GALES LIKELY ABLE TO BE DISCONTINUED
BY 00Z OR SO, TO BE REPLACED BY SCA INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.
WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, AS CAA WANES
AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W-SW. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING A CHANCE
FOR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING IN THE POST- FRONTAL CAA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF
4-6 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SAT
NIGHT INTO SUN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT
WAVES IN THE CHES BAY) SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS OF 5-8 FEET
SUBSIDE THIS EVENING INTO SAT MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4 FT
TOMORROW. WAVES 2-3 FT ON THE BAY, 1-2 FT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6 FT
SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE
CHES BAY) SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 255 PM EST FRIDAY...
LOW WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CHES BAY, TIDAL RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN
CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE). LOW WATER ADVISORIES WERE CONSIDERED BUT
EXPECT WATER LEVELS COME IN JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MDZ021>025.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MDZ025.
NC...NONE.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ099-100.
HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR VAZ099-
100.
MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ630>632-634-
638-654-656-658.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ633-
635>637.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 1 AM EST SATURDAY FOR ANZ650-652.
SYNOPSIS...SW
NEAR TERM...SW
SHORT TERM...SW
LONG TERM...AJB/SW
AVIATION...SW
MARINE...MAM/RMM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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