634
FXUS61 KAKQ 200643
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
143 AM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFFSHORE
SUNDAY AS ANOTHER (DRY) COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WARMING TEMPERATURES
ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COOLER TEMPERATURES MONDAY. A
BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS WARMING TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 140 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER TODAY WITH MORNING LOWS BELOW FREEZING FOR MOST.
EARLY MORNING SURFACE ANALYSIS DEPICTED A ~968MB LOW OVER QUEBEC
WITH A ~1023MB HIGH OVER THE TN VALLEY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY BEFORE MOVING OFFSHORE LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT. TEMPS AS OF 1250 AM RANGED FROM THE LOWER 30S NW TO THE
LOWER 40S SE UNDER MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES (OUTSIDE OF SOME CIRRUS ACROSS
THE N HALF OF THE AREA). WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN, WINDS
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE IN THE PRE-DAWN HOURS, ALLOWING FOR A
PERIOD OF RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR MORNING LOWS TO
DROP INTO THE UPPER 20S INLAND TO THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SE VA/NE NC
AND MID 30S ALONG THE COAST. MID 20S ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE FAR NW
PIEDMONT. WINDS BECOME S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING AS THE
HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE
INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S NE TO THE LOWER 50S SW UNDER SUNNY SKIES.
WINDS BECOME SW 5-10 KT TONIGHT, KEEPING TEMPS MILDER IN THE MID 30S
FOR MOST (LOCALLY LOWER AND UPPER 30S).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE SUN WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. CAA LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUN, ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 50S (LOWER 50S N TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60F S). A STRONG (~1036MB) AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SUN NIGHT, CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA MON. GIVEN THE HIGH
OVERHEAD, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS (INLAND), EXPECT COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS MON MORNING IN THE LOW-MID 20S INLAND. LOWS REMAIN MILDER
ALONG THE COAST GIVEN WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED (LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S). SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70F POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT PASSES NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA TUE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY LOW (30-40% POPS). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE EARLY TUE MORNING. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL
RAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING (NBM HAS LOWS AROUND
30F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA), HOWEVER, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ANY PRECIP
FALLS. ANY RAIN ENDS BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S.
ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-
LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES ALLOWS FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WED INTO WED NIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING IN THE 30S FOR MOST.
HOWEVER, TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST (50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE) CHRISTMAS DAY. FRI, DEC 26 WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPS THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHS ON FRI RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR MOST
OF THE AREA (LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE). OUTSIDE OF
THE WARMER WEATHER, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE APART FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE CHRISTMAS MORNING.
AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/
AS OF 1225 AM EST SATURDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL ACROSS THE TERMINALS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD
AS HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDS IN BEHIND A COLD FRONT. SKIES
WILL BE MOSTLY CLEAR, ASIDE FROM THE OCCASIONAL FEW-SCT SKIES
(DUE TO CIRRUS) OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS AND AGAIN TOMORROW
AFTERNOON. NW WINDS 5-10 KT AT SBY DIMINISH OVERNIGHT WITH
LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS ELSEWHERE. WINDS BECOME S 5-10 KT SAT
AFTERNOON INTO SAT EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE.
OUTLOOK: VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND
AND INTO MONDAY WITH SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION (LIKELY IN THE
FORM OF RAIN) POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
MARINE
AS OF 730 PM EST FRIDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- GALE WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO OCEAN
ZONES THROUGH THE EVENING. ELSEWHERE, GALES HAVE BEEN REPLACED
BY SCA AND WILL LAST THROUGH THIS EVENING.
- ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES THE REGION ON SUNDAY, WITH ANOTHER PERIOD
OF ELEVATED WINDS POSSIBLE LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG ~976MB SURFACE LOW OVER
WESTERN QC THIS EVENING. SURFACE COLD FRONT IS NOW OFFSHORE,
WITH 1024MB SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE
MID- SOUTH. GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE ACROSS THE TWO NORTHERN
OCEAN ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING AS WINDS CONTINUE TO GUST TO
35KT. ELSEWHERE, GALES HAVE BEEN REPLACED BY SCA AS WINDS
REMAIN OUT OF THE WNW BETWEEN 20 TO 25 KT WITH GUSTS UPWARDS OF
30KT. WINDS DIMINISH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY, AS CAA
WANES AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE W-SW.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT
SAT EVENING INTO EARLY SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SUN
NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IN THE POST- FRONTAL CAA. ANOTHER PERIOD
OF 4-6 FT SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS
SAT NIGHT INTO SUN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH
3-4 FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY) SUN NIGHT INTO MON. SEAS OF 5-8
FEET SUBSIDE THIS EVENING INTO SAT MORNING, DIMINISHING TO 2-4
FT TOMORROW. WAVES 2-3 FT ON THE BAY, 1-2 FT ON THE RIVERS AND
SOUND.
ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA THIS WEEKEND, PROVIDING A
CHANCE FOR SCA CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT SAT
EVENING INTO EARLY SUN WITH SCA CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SUN NIGHT
INTO MON MORNING IN THE POST-FRONTAL CAA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6 FT
SEAS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN COASTAL WATERS SAT NIGHT INTO
SUN AND ACROSS ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS (WITH 3-4 FT WAVES IN THE
CHES BAY) SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 255 PM EST FRIDAY...
LOW WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CHES BAY, TIDAL RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN
CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE). LOW WATER ADVISORIES WERE CONSIDERED BUT
EXPECT WATER LEVELS COME IN JUST ABOVE THRESHOLDS.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 AM EST EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
ANZ630>632-634-654.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ650-
652.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...RMM
MARINE...HET/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...
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