637
FXUS61 KAKQ 201746
AFDAKQ
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WAKEFIELD VA
1246 PM EST SAT DEC 20 2025
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION TODAY BEFORE SLIDING
OFFSHORE SUNDAY AS ANOTHER (DRY) COLD FRONT APPROACHES. WARMING
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED THIS WEEKEND, FOLLOWED BY COOLER
TEMPERATURES MONDAY. A BUILDING UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE BRINGS WARMING
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE,
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE.
NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AS OF 930 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- COOLER AND SUNNY TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 40S
TO LOWER 50S.
MORNING SURFACE PLACES A ~1026MB HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN MID-
ATLANTIC AND CAROLINAS. COOL AND SUNNY THIS MORNING WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 30S TO LOWER 40S, AFTER MORNING LOWS IN
THE MID 20S TO AROUND 30F. HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WINDS BECOME S THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS
EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES OFFSHORE. THIS SHOULD ALLOW FOR
AFTERNOON TEMPS TO RISE INTO THE MID-UPPER 40S NE TO THE LOWER
50S SW UNDER SUNNY SKIES. WINDS BECOME SW 5-10 MPH TONIGHT,
KEEPING TEMPS MILDER IN THE MID 30S FOR MOST (LOCALLY LOWER AND
UPPER 30S).
SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGE:
- A DRY COLD FRONT BRINGS COOLER WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE OFFSHORE SUN WITH A DRY COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH. CAA LAGS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SUN, ALLOWING FOR
HIGHS TO WARM INTO THE 50S (LOWER 50S N TO THE UPPER 50S TO AROUND
60F S). A STRONG (~1036MB) AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE
AREA SUN NIGHT, CENTERING OVER THE LOCAL AREA MON. GIVEN THE HIGH
OVERHEAD, CLEAR SKIES, AND LIGHT WINDS (INLAND), EXPECT COLDER TEMPS
WITH LOWS MON MORNING IN THE LOW-MID 20S INLAND. LOWS REMAIN MILDER
ALONG THE COAST GIVEN WINDS REMAINING ELEVATED (LOWS IN THE LOWER
30S). SUNNY AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MON WITH HIGHS IN THE
LOW-MID 40S.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/
AS OF 140 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
- A WARMUP IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH HIGHS IN THE 60S TO AROUND
70F POSSIBLE BY FRIDAY.
A SHORTWAVE EMBEDDED WITHIN NW FLOW ALOFT PASSES NORTH OF THE LOCAL
AREA TUE. A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE LATE MON NIGHT INTO TUE.
HOWEVER, CHANCES REMAIN GENERALLY LOW (30-40% POPS). CANNOT
COMPLETELY RULE OUT A FEW SNOWFLAKES MIXING IN WITH RAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN NECK AND EASTERN SHORE EARLY TUE MORNING. HOWEVER,
CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH A GREATER CHANCE THAT PRECIP WILL REMAIN ALL
RAIN. LOWS MON NIGHT MAY DROP BELOW FREEZING (NBM HAS LOWS AROUND
30F ACROSS THE PIEDMONT AND UPPER 20S ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
AREA), HOWEVER, LOWS WILL LIKELY BE REACHED IN THE FIRST HALF OF THE
NIGHT WITH TEMPS LIKELY RISING ABOVE FREEZING BEFORE ANY PRECIP
FALLS. ANY RAIN ENDS BY TUE AFTERNOON WITH HIGHS RISING INTO THE 50S.
ALOFT, A LARGE RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH THE
EASTERN PORTION OF THE RIDGE BUILDING OVER THE LOCAL AREA BY MID-
LATE WEEK. MEANWHILE, HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OFFSHORE OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST. THIS COMBINATION OF FEATURES ALLOWS FOR HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK. HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS IN WED INTO WED NIGHT WHICH MAY ALLOW FOR
SLIGHTLY MORE SEASONAL LOWS CHRISTMAS MORNING IN THE 30S FOR MOST.
HOWEVER, TEMPS WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 60S FOR MOST (50S ACROSS THE
EASTERN SHORE) CHRISTMAS DAY. FRI, DEC 26 WILL LIKELY BE THE WARMEST
OF THE WEEK AS THE HIGH MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WHILE AN AREA
OF LOW PRESSURE WELL TO THE NORTH KEEPS THE AREA SOLIDLY IN THE WARM
SECTOR. HIGHS ON FRI RISE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70F FOR MOST
OF THE AREA (LOWER 60S ACROSS THE EASTERN SHORE). OUTSIDE OF
THE WARMER WEATHER, MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS CONTINUE APART FROM A
SLIGHT CHANCE FOR A FEW LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS ACROSS THE EASTERN
SHORE CHRISTMAS MORNING.
AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/
AS OF 1245 PM EST SATURDAY...
1025MB HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED ALONG THE MID-ATLANTIC COAST
AS OF 18Z. VFR UNDER A SUNNY SKY WITH A LIGHT E-SE WIND. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. A 40-45KT SW
LLJ CROSSES THE REGION TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF A DRY COLD FRONT
AND THIS COULD BRING A PERIOD OF LLWS APPROXIMATELY 05-11Z
SUNDAY, ESPECIALLY AT RIC AND SBY. THE WIND BECOMES S THEN SW
5-10KT TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUNDAY MORNING AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT, AND THEN SHIFTS TO NW 8-12KT BEHIND THE COLD FRONT AROUND
AND AFTER 14-15Z SUNDAY, WITH GUSTS UP TO 20KT POSSIBLE AT SBY.
VFR/DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.
WEAK LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY BRINGS SOME LIGHT RAIN (POSSIBLY A
BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX N AT THE ONSET) LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS WEDNESDAY WITH VFR AND DRY
CONDITIONS. ANOTHER WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS A CHC OF
LIGHT RAIN CHRISTMAS DAY.
MARINE
AS OF 655 AM EST SATURDAY...
KEY MESSAGES:
- DIMINISHING WINDS TODAY.
- ELEVATED SOUTHERLY WINDS TONIGHT WITH MARGINAL SCAS POSSIBLE
NORTHERN AREAS, THEN WITH ANOTHER PERIOD WITH SCAS LIKELY
SUNDAY NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT.
INTENSE SFC LOW PRESSURE IS WELL OFF TO THE N OF THE LOCAL
WATERS ACROSS NEW FOUNDLAND/LABRADOR, WITH SFC HIGH PRESSURE
BEGINNING TO SETTLE INTO OUR REGION FROM THE WEST. NNW WINDS
REMAIN ELEVATED EARLY THIS MORNING, BUT HAVE ENDED ALL SCAS WITH
THIS UPDATE CYCLE PER LATEST OBS. ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM THE W LATE TONIGHT, PROVIDING A CHANCE FOR MARGINAL SCA
CONDITIONS DUE TO SW WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT TONIGHT INTO EARLY
SUN FOR MAINLY NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE LOCAL WATERS (4-5 FT
SEAS N COASTAL WATERS AND GUSTS TO 20-25KT BAY N OF WINDMILL
PT). WINDS DROP OFF A BIT SUNDAY DURING THE DAY, BUT SCA
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY SUN NIGHT INTO MON MORNING IN THE POST-
FRONTAL CAA. ANOTHER PERIOD OF 4-6 FT SEAS IS EXPECTED ACROSS
ALL OF THE COASTAL WATERS, POTENTIALLY TO 6-7 FT NC WATERS, WITH
3-4 FT WAVES IN THE CHES BAY, SUN NIGHT INTO MON.
A PERIOD OF CALMER CONDITIONS DEVELOPS MONDAY, BUT ANOTHER ROUND
OF HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED BY TUESDAY WITH LOW PRESSURE PASSING
BY TO OUR NORTH.
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING
AS OF 325 AM EST SATURDAY...
LOW WATER IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT FEW NIGHTS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE CHES BAY, TIDAL RIVERS, CURRITUCK SOUND, AND THE
ATLANTIC COAST OF THE EASTERN SHORE (INCLUDING OCEAN
CITY/CHINCOTEAGUE). HOWEVER, AT THIS TIME, CONDITIONS APPEAR TOO
MARGINAL FOR ANY LOW WATER ADVISORIES.
AKQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
MD...NONE.
NC...NONE.
VA...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.
SYNOPSIS...RMM
NEAR TERM...AJZ/RMM
SHORT TERM...RMM
LONG TERM...RMM
AVIATION...AJZ
MARINE...LKB/MAM
TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...AKQ
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